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In Season Talk 2019-20

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On 5/30/2020 at 6:31 AM, MidnightAngel said:

Why would the Centennial Authority be concerned with the Hurricanes spending past the salary cap midpoint, for example.  I guess you want to get everything in writing. 

I'd guess it's related to the following bullet point, committing the Authority to pay half the costs of operating the arena.

 

If the Canes are at least a middling team, gate revenue increases. Of course, arena operating costs increase too, but if everybody is making more money via the increased gate, paying those costs is less painful.

 

How good a team plays leans on a lot more than how much it spends in payroll, but those other elements are hard to put a dollar value on. Spending at least midway to the cap is the only tangible check the Authority has in "enforcing" Dundon's commitment to icing a winner.

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  Just my opinion from personal experience, our city, approx 250,000 has an arena just outside town, there is one main road in and out and one back road. Its a nightmare and keeps me from going to some events there, sold out events over an hour to get away. Went to a Rammstein concert out of town, city approx 1 mill. Arena was downtown, a 5 to 6 min walk to car and 10 to 15 mins later into moving traffic. The different being more options for travel.

  Now different cities, different set ups. They are talking about building a new arena here finally and I voted for downtown.

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3 hours ago, AmxCanes said:

  Just my opinion from personal experience, our city, approx 250,000 has an arena just outside town, there is one main road in and out and one back road. Its a nightmare and keeps me from going to some events there, sold out events over an hour to get away. Went to a Rammstein concert out of town, city approx 1 mill. Arena was downtown, a 5 to 6 min walk to car and 10 to 15 mins later into moving traffic. The different being more options for travel.

  

I have a different perspective. I’ve been attending for 20plus years. Rarely have any issues getting in or out. I don’t wait till the last minute or freak out if it takes 20 minutes to get out. How having a downtown venue would make this any better even if it is needed to is beyond my feeble mind.

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10 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I'd guess it's related to the following bullet point, committing the Authority to pay half the costs of operating the arena.

 

If the Canes are at least a middling team, gate revenue increases. Of course, arena operating costs increase too, but if everybody is making more money via the increased gate, paying those costs is less painful.

 

How good a team plays leans on a lot more than how much it spends in payroll, but those other elements are hard to put a dollar value on. Spending at least midway to the cap is the only tangible check the Authority has in "enforcing" Dundon's commitment to icing a winner.

Ah, I see.  Thanks for the insight.  I don't necessarily question Dundon's commitment to winning,

but I do think his commitment may be tied to his investment on return ratio.

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5 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

Ah, I see.  Thanks for the insight.  I don't necessarily question Dundon's commitment to winning,

but I do think his commitment may be tied to his investment on return ratio.

As it should be for good business.

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I thought for sure when we went to our first Bluejackets game we were gonna be screwed getting out of the garage, wasn't the case it went really well. Police handle the exiting traffic really well and you're 2-3 blocks from the interstate. If things are done right, it doesn't HAVE to be a terrible experience. It's a valid concern that shouldn't shut down the idea of ever doing it it just needs addressed in extreme detail.

Edited by legend-1

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10 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

Ah, I see.  Thanks for the insight.  I don't necessarily question Dundon's commitment to winning,

but I do think his commitment may be tied to his investment on return ratio.

There's that for sure, but I'd think the prior owner's failure to spend jack for years after the Cup win probably drove the Authority to make sure the new boss wasn't the same as the old boss :) 

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On 5/31/2020 at 6:56 PM, cc said:

I have a different perspective. I’ve been attending for 20plus years. Rarely have any issues getting in or out. I don’t wait till the last minute or freak out if it takes 20 minutes to get out. How having a downtown venue would make this any better even if it is needed to is beyond my feeble mind.

20 minutes would be great, its when its closer to 1hr and 20 mins I get annoyed.   Again the biggest difference I saw was the arena I was at, downtown had more than 2 roads to get out, more options. But as I also stated different cities will have different set ups, not all being equal

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19 hours ago, cc said:

As it should be for good business.

Not really, the commitment to winning should be 100%.  Anything less than that and you shouldn't be buying a sports team. 

When Dundon initially wasn't paying fair market prices for some of the hockey staff that was sort of a red flag for me.

Edited by MidnightAngel
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8 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

Not really, the commitment to winning should be 100%.  Anything less than that and you shouldn't be buying a sports team. 

When Dundon initially wasn't paying fair market prices for some of the hockey staff that was sort of a red flag for me.

There has to be balance,  If the business side is not taken care of you wont have a team.  Same as when you lose all the time.  I,ll stick with Dundon.

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8 hours ago, AmxCanes said:

20 minutes would be great, its when its closer to 1hr and 20 mins I get annoyed. 

Wow-  I have never experienced this.

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Tom Dundon   certainly does  things to the tune of his own drum .   If it has paid off for him  so far  I cant argue against him to stop .  

 

Also  be thankful  we dont have someone like  eugene melnyk  as a owner .   Because if that was the case  we would not have a hockey team .  

Edited by Canesfanforever
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So I have been watching replays of a few games last season. Here's what I have to say.

 

1. We have 3 elite players in Svech, Aho, and Turbo. Any one of these guys can be our all star for the next 10 years or so.

 

2. Our D as a collective is elite. Slavin is the only elite player but as a group they are elite and deep. Losing 2 of the top six did not hurt as much as it would any other team.

 

3. The goalies are solid but not great. Both Mragic and Riems had moments this year where they were great but also really bad. 

 

4. This team has what it takes to bring home a cup in The next 5 years and contend for one every year ut doesnt 

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13 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

So I have been watching replays of a few games last season. Here's what I have to say.

 

1. We have 3 elite players in Svech, Aho, and Turbo. Any one of these guys can be our all star for the next 10 years or so.

 

2. Our D as a collective is elite. Slavin is the only elite player but as a group they are elite and deep. Losing 2 of the top six did not hurt as much as it would any other team.

 

3. The goalies are solid but not great. Both Mragic and Riems had moments this year where they were great but also really bad. 

 

4. This team has what it takes to bring home a cup in The next 5 years and contend for one every year ut doesnt 

 

The only things   i see  is holding the team back is  Solid consistent goal tending  which   can  be fixed  with either better  goalie  coach or  just getting a better goalie  or  perhaps both .   and lastly 

Team chemistry   .   I noticed over the last couple of years that the canes   would have moments where   they play like superstars  out there and in other moments   get fatigued  and lose focus on working as a team  and do things in their own  way   .    These things are correctable   but are also  deeply psychological as  well .   Nino  last year when he came to the canes  was thought of  a brilliant move from Waddell      but shortly after the playoffs come  and that flash in the pan   just dried up and died   and all year long nino was not producing like he once was ,   Could be a lot of things really  but maybe it's  something a lot more psychological   that  stopped his  scoring .   Im sure Brind'Amour is  aware of that   but  might not be able to help nino  address that   issue  to get him back on pace .   

 

Take that first game  Svech  , Aho and Turbo  were playing with each other against the predators  this season ?  omg  that line was scary   as hell  .  But then they played against  some other teams and the scoring  just all of a sudden  went   streaky .    Things like that  which are intangible  , we can see them  but not quite  understand them  is   what i have seen all year long actually .    It  could just  be something  easy to fix  and   then no need to worry .   Or it  could be something deeper im not  sure of .    I know im not the best person to say all of this   and wish i could  find someone else who is   but   , it's  just something i have taken into account over the last couple of years . 

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15 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

So I have been watching replays of a few games last season. Here's what I have to say.

 

1. We have 3 elite players in Svech, Aho, and Turbo. Any one of these guys can be our all star for the next 10 years or so.

 

2. Our D as a collective is elite. Slavin is the only elite player but as a group they are elite and deep. Losing 2 of the top six did not hurt as much as it would any other team.

 

3. The goalies are solid but not great. Both Mragic and Riems had moments this year where they were great but also really bad. 

 

4. This team has what it takes to bring home a cup in The next 5 years and contend for one every year ut doesnt 

 

Its even better than you mention: 

 

Hamilton is elite. He was just off the Norris pace offensively, and cleaned up his defense hugely leading the team at plus 30. 

 

Pesce is an elite shut down player. 

 

Necas will be elite, IMO. But I've been on Necas from the moment Francis practically ran to the podium to snag him. While Necas was a year older and as such doesn't directly compare to Svech, he put up better rookie numbers. But the point is not to compare him to Svech. Necas rookie year was on pace for 20 goals and 46 points. Personally, I think Necas has nearly ppg potential, but even if he ends up as a 65-70 point guy, that is pretty elite.

 

While I don't see him as elite, I still have pretty high hopes for Warren Foegele. All he does is constantly get better. His projected numbers for his rookie then his sophomore yr:

 

11 goals, 16 points, -17 

16 goals, 36 points, +9

 

I think he's a 20 plus goal, 45 point, plus player type guy who also does a lot of little things right. 

 

Then looking into to system, we have a couple of really nice prospects. Bean is already the reigning AHL D man of the year. Geekie has shown flashes at the NHL level. And I think Suzuki is a future NHL player as is Drury. Joey Keane is considered a pretty high end D prospect too. Then there are high end potential guys like Bokk, Rees, Puistola and on D, Honka.

 

So the future is indeed bright with the one massive caveat that you mention at #3. We don't have a franchise goalie. That would lock it all down if we could figure that piece out. There were a lot of high hopes for Kochetkov who we picked high in the second round. He was amazing at the World Junior championships. But his year last year was just ok, and he was overshadowed by other Russian goalies, who put up better age-adjusted stats in various Russian leagues. It's still about development with goalies who can just suddenly find it, but at this moment hopes are a bit tempered for him. Ned? Maybe. But this is one position that this franchise has struggled nailing down, and it it sooo key. 

 

If everything breaks right in the draft and we end up say #14, maybe we could trade up and try to grab Askarov, who NHL.com's three mock drafters have going 10 or 11. Personally I'd do it, but then again, it's hard to move up 4-5 slots, and some mocks have him going even higher.

 

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I agree Rem but will counter with this. As long as the skaters are as good as I think they will be these guys will be in the playoffs every year for the next 5-10 years. While a top flight goalie will always make the trip easier, they guys we have now can get hot for stretches and we all know a team with a hot goalie late in the playoffs chances to win the cup go through the roof.

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I really do like our team, and agree that we don't need a top flight goalie, but I maintain we can't have bottom of league goaltending even with a really good team. There is just such a tight correlation between goaltending and playoffs. Some of that can be statistical bias since bad teams tend to have bad defenses and hang the goalie out, and good teams the opposite, but you need at least solid goaltending. Most years the teams that make it with bottom third goaltending are the exceptions to the rule. There are some, but they don't tend to make it back the next year.

 

That said, how nice would it be to have several years of a 'set it and forget it' top 10 goalie? I think we're due one.

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For me we need a legit top 6 or a legit goalie.

 

A legit top 6 with a middle of the road goalie will be fine.  We are half of the way there.  Aho, Turbo, Svech are legit top 6ers.  Necas is working his way to that. Trocheck, Zinger, and Nino have a history of it but haven’t proved it this season.  I think. We had it for a short while this season when Necas, Haula, and Zinger were carrying us and we were hot.
 

Last season we didn’t have it consistently.  We had Williams, Aho, Turbo, and Ferland. Svech was sheltered.  Ferland went away / got injured and we fell off. It didn’t come back around until Nino came on board.  Then again it was more of the goaltending become top 10 and we had 4 top 6ers.  
 

we have a top 5 in the league 3rd line in Staal, Foegele, and whoever is the third (Nino, Williams, whoever).

 

We can be really good next season if Trocheck and Nino are consistent top 6 producers next season. I am penciling in Necas into legit top 6 for next season.  
 

Aho and co producing close to a ppg pace

Trocheck and co producing a .6 ppg pace

 

Coupled in with the sporadic production from the 3rd and 4th lines plus a decent production from the defense will average us 3 goals a game. That should get us to 90 points. Then the loser points/ stealing games will determine how high we are in the standings.  
 

I hope we go for a top 5 top 6 and try to figure out the goalie situation through the draft.  Getting a top 6 will be easier and less risky then getting a top flight goalie. Unfortunately we don’t have any close to being a number one in the farm. Helvig fell off, Ned is too inconsistent, and the rest are too young. 

Edited by gocanes0506

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On 5/28/2020 at 7:10 PM, LakeLivin said:

 

Sorry it came across that way to you Jon.  The "oops!" emoji was actually meant to make the post a bit more lighthearted. That's one of the problems with online communication, it's often open to different interpretations. 

 

I apologize, too, Lake, if I overreacted. I'm just a little sensitive about the whole "conspiracy theorists" line. Seems like that's a factor in where we are as a country - too many people on all sides buying into conspiracy theories, real or perceived.

 

For my part, my conclusion about a possible move for the Hurricanes wasn't based on a conspiracy theory. Just a semi-clear-eyed view of TommyD as a 'practical' sort of guy who is going to make decisions based on business stuff like return on investment and what's best for the team and the owner. Just like now - new lease signed with the Authority, but with a limited term (team holds termination rights after four years) and with the more-than-implied/less-than-stated "I get what I want, re: new area or expensive remodel/revamp, or I look elsewhere." To expect Dundon to exclude that possibility is to take an unrealistic stance, IMO.

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1 hour ago, JonKerfoot said:

 

I apologize, too, Lake, if I overreacted. I'm just a little sensitive about the whole "conspiracy theorists" line. Seems like that's a factor in where we are as a country - too many people on all sides buying into conspiracy theories, real or perceived.

 

For my part, my conclusion about a possible move for the Hurricanes wasn't based on a conspiracy theory. Just a semi-clear-eyed view of TommyD as a 'practical' sort of guy who is going to make decisions based on business stuff like return on investment and what's best for the team and the owner. Just like now - new lease signed with the Authority, but with a limited term (team holds termination rights after four years) and with the more-than-implied/less-than-stated "I get what I want, re: new area or expensive remodel/revamp, or I look elsewhere." To expect Dundon to exclude that possibility is to take an unrealistic stance, IMO.

 

No problem Jon.  :cheers:

 

I guess one mitigating factor I'm considering is that the NHL needs to approve any move and they seem firmly committed to keeping hockey in the south. So I'm thinking the situation for a franchise would have to be really bad in order for the league to approve a move out of Raleigh.  We know that our area will support a successful team, and it seems like Dundon's personality is such that he won't abide not having a successful team.  I hear what you're saying about Dundon's personality, but unless there's a major breakdown between Dundon and the Centennial Authority, I hope we're safe.  And with the major upgrades they've already put in since Dundon took over, seems like the CA isn't likely to take a hard line stance when it comes to negotiations with Dundon.  Or at least I'm hoping.  :crossfingers: 

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9 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

I guess one mitigating factor I'm considering is that the NHL needs to approve any move and they seem firmly committed to keeping hockey in the south.

 

 

Agreed with this, however considering the possible relocation target is Houston, keeping hockey in the south won't make a difference one way or the other in this one.  I don't necessarily expect the team to move to Houston, but at the same time i wouldn't be surprised to see Dundon try it, nor would i be particularly surprised to see the league approve a move to a larger southern market.

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Houston is a more attractive market than Raleigh.  Of course, Houston is more attractive than a lot of current NHL cities.  What keeps Dundon put?  One thing in the short run was the Raleigh market proved that put a decent product on the ice and the fans would return. Attendance this year was way up from last season which was up solidly from the year before.  Had the fans not returned in numbers and passion, that could’ve been a green light to bolt, but realizing there was a latent fan base here eager to return buys some time for now.  The investment and infrastructure in having a top line practice facility will help anchor the team here, but the arena is an issue that needs addressing. 

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John Forslund was on XM yesterday. We've moved beyond frank questions about the team moving, but the XM guys gave their all time Hurricanes team and they talked about the history and progression of the team in Raleigh. Apparently at the nadir season tickets were around 5K/year. But now they've shot up. I can't remember the number, but it was a lot more. The franchise value is higher, now sitting at around 6 teams worth less, and climbing. 

 

So long as fans keep supporting the team in these numbers (and it would take a pretty big collapse given how young this team is and how deep our prospect pool is) I just can't see the league allowing a move of this team out of this market, especially as Raleigh keeps growing. Can't say Dundon might not try it, but it just seems very unlikely to me. As much as the NHL seems full on committed to keeping hockey in South Florida, they have a team in Tampa and if a team were to move, well Panthers is a pretty generic name...

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