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NHL trade deadline talk (Feb. 24, 2020 at 3pm ET)

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4 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

Rod said Dzingel needed a day, a little dinged up. Just speculation as expected 

Still seems odd...i mean, what dinged him up? he didnt have a particularly rough night in Dallas

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I guess you can always say a guy is dinged up, especially this time of year. Maybe don't really want to say, "yeah he was almost gone but it fell through."

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3 hours ago, thickburglar said:

What does it take to give Priskie a look, and healthy scratch a bottom pair left handed guy like Fleury or Gardiner, or even give Slavin or Pesce a game off if we can afford to lose them. Priskie can PLAY, currently the second points leader for Checkers D. I'm really surprised he hasn't played an NHL game yet for us (he hasn't right?) especially since Dougie went down. Well, now we're about a week and a half away from the deadline so it might be too late to test this out vs. trading for RHD.

 

Seems like Rod is only just starting to trust Fleury, despite him apparently playing reasonably well for awhile now (I say "apparently" since I've been stuck listening to games this season rather than watching them).  So I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for Rod to play someone with no NHL experience.

Edited by LakeLivin
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Sports Club Stats has Chicago's playoff chances down to 14%. A couple more losses in a row, they might be ready to deal a goalie...

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5 minutes ago, remkin said:

Sports Club Stats has Chicago's playoff chances down to 14%. A couple more losses in a row, they might be ready to deal a goalie...

Fingers crossed. Did see where Hutchinson was placed on waivers by Toronto but I wouldn't jump at that. 

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1 minute ago, KJUNKANE said:

Fingers crossed. Did see where Hutchinson was placed on waivers by Toronto but I wouldn't jump at that. 

The last decent backup they had we stole off of waivers 

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1 hour ago, thickburglar said:

What does it take to give Priskie a look, and healthy scratch a bottom pair left handed guy like Fleury or Gardiner, or even give Slavin or Pesce a game off if we can afford to lose them. Priskie can PLAY, currently the second points leader for Checkers D. I'm really surprised he hasn't played an NHL game yet for us (he hasn't right?) especially since Dougie went down. Well, now we're about a week and a half away from the deadline so it might be too late to test this out vs. trading for RHD.

 

Have you seen the Chex play?  If so, how does Kaski compare to Priske?  Both RD, Kaski is a year older, a bit bigger, and since joining the Chex has scored at about the same rate as Priske but with a lot more of his points being goals.  

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24 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

And have to play against now:pullhair:

Well, he had his last chance to get paid and took full advantage of it.  No issues with what he did...

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Seems like Rod is only just starting to trust Fleury, despite him apparently playing reasonably well for awhile now (I say "apparently" since I've been stuck listening to games this season rather than watching them).  So I'm going to hold my breath waiting for Rod to play someone with no NHL experience.

He has made some gaffes but not costly ones and he usually makes up for them in short order

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On 2/11/2020 at 10:03 AM, remkin said:

So I thought this might be a fun place to put this since it affects deadline deals and so few read the prospect area of the board.

 

The Pittsburgh trade of it's first rounder (in the Zucker/Galchenyuk trade) got me thinking of a new sort of index: Current Sum Power Ranking x Prospect Pool ranking x average age of core NHL team player. The lower the number the better. This is a way of looking at the projection of how good a team will be in the future. In short, we're good now, young now, and have a great farm system. Only a couple of teams can say all 3 of those things.

 

Almost every other really good team has a bad farm, or the good farm teams have a bad team.  

 

It is far too simple to say this means Carolina and Colorado dominate the next 5-7 years, but it would not be a bad bet. Anyways, here is a list of the bottom 5 teams in Wheeler's team farm systems a couple of notables, and us. You all know where these teams are in the standings, but it's mostly a who's who of most of the best teams right now, who have sold their development souls to win now.

 

31. Columbus.

30. Boston

29. Washington

28. Pittsburgh (that was before they traded another first round pick)

27. St Louis

24. NYI

21. Toronto

19. Tampa Bay

 

3. Carolina Hurricanes (before 4 picks in two rounds this next draft). 

 

There are a lot of factors that play into eventual success, but we are hitting the "draft and develop" thing pretty well, again, while still having a good young core that has yet to peak (especially Svech and Necas).

I think it shows that Pittsburgh and Carolina are in two completely different places.  The Penguins use their picks and prospects to supplement their core

in trades.  And if there's any left over they use them to fill in the holes.   Plus, they do draft well.  Matt Muray was a 3rd round pick.  Jarry a 2nd.  Rust was

a 3rd rounder.  Letang a 2nd.  Rust should hit 30 goals this year.  Guentzel was a 3rd rounder who scored 40 goals last year and 20 in the first half this

year.  They needed to replace him ... so you go out and get Zucker.  You don't worry about what it costs.  You do it.  There'll be time later to trade some

veterans and replenish the farm system.  It's important to remember they've won 3 cups in the same amount of time the Canes have made the playoffs once.

 

 

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On 2/12/2020 at 8:08 PM, Derailed75 said:

Actually it will get easier. Ovi, Cindy and the like are at the top or even just crested the dreaded hill while Aho and Svech have gotten better each year, neither are at their peak. Look around the East and name me another team with 2 players (possibly 3 if you count Necas) who are younger then 25, are that good, and are constantly getting better

Well, I found some information on under 25 scoring.  They use goals above replacement (similar to wins against replacement in baseball, I guess).

These are the top-10 teams leading the way with under-25 scoring.  The Blue Jackets are way far ahead in just about all total areas .....

 

Millennials are not killing these teams

2019-20 NHL teams with the most goals above replacement (GAR) created by players in their age-25 season or younger

  Goals Above Replacement  
Team Offense Defense Goaltending Total Share of Team Total
Columbus Blue Jackets 20.5 26.4 19.1 65.9 76.3%
Colorado Avalanche 39.7 17.8 0.0 57.5 55.3
Toronto Maple Leafs 42.2 13.1 0.0 55.3 70.3
Carolina Hurricanes 27.7 24.0 0.0 51.8 57.9
Pittsburgh Penguins 18.9 17.8 12.3 49.1 48.9
Buffalo Sabres 31.6 14.6 0.0 46.2 68.8
Vancouver Canucks 31.6 12.2 0.3 44.1 51.4
Edmonton Oilers 29.2 13.0 0.0 42.2 57.9
New York Rangers 21.5 10.9 8.3 40.7 49.9
Arizona Coyotes 18.3 18.2 2.8 39.2 43.9

A player’s “seasonal age” is determined by his age on Feb. 1 of the season.

Source: Hockey-Reference.com

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We know that 30+ year olds are in the millennial bucket too?  Depending on who you ask the oldest millennial will turn 43 this year. Some say 40, some say 36.  
 

most of the folks on that list are generation Z folks.  1996 and after births.

Edited by gocanes0506

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7 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

I think it shows that Pittsburgh and Carolina are in two completely different places.  The Penguins use their picks and prospects to supplement their core

in trades.  And if there's any left over they use them to fill in the holes.   Plus, they do draft well.  Matt Muray was a 3rd round pick.  Jarry a 2nd.  Rust was

a 3rd rounder.  Letang a 2nd.  Rust should hit 30 goals this year.  Guentzel was a 3rd rounder who scored 40 goals last year and 20 in the first half this

year.  They needed to replace him ... so you go out and get Zucker.  You don't worry about what it costs.  You do it.  There'll be time later to trade some

veterans and replenish the farm system.  It's important to remember they've won 3 cups in the same amount of time the Canes have made the playoffs once.

 

 

Its also important to remember they have Cindy and Malkin. Pretty easy to make complimentary trades when you have those 2. You are just about a lock to make the playoffs from day one of every season. Which brings me back to my point we have 3 guys on the roster now and another one in Charlotte who have that potential. I would say Aho will top out around a Malkin type player and Svech could get to Cindy's level if not higher. As for Gauthier and Necas its still to be determined. So you dont mortgage to future for a run this year and you dont start dumping talented core guys for futures just yet. We know Nino has more and we think Dzingle and Gardiner have more. We can make a move if it fills a need and gives us some term. But we shouldnt just start dumping guys and bringing up Checkers because we think its time for them to get some NHL experience  

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Looking around at many different websites, it seems we are being tied to a lot of defensive players come trade deadline. I would think forwards or centers would be more what we need with the defense we have...other than Gardiner. Thoughts? Also, I read that the Blackhawks will mostly likely be selling a goalie. Thoughts on that one too?

 

Thanks everyone! Just getting the feel of what everyone thinks!

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30 minutes ago, Caniac5 said:

Looking around at many different websites, it seems we are being tied to a lot of defensive players come trade deadline. I would think forwards or centers would be more what we need with the defense we have...other than Gardiner. Thoughts? Also, I read that the Blackhawks will mostly likely be selling a goalie. Thoughts on that one too?

 

Thanks everyone! Just getting the feel of what everyone thinks!

 

Defense is our number one need. A right shot D man with offensive upside would be desirable. At the moment only Gardiner has consistent offensive potential but his defensive play has been noticeable in its vulnerabilities.  TVR is probable as good a third pair Dman that can jump up pairs from time to time as you will find. At the moment he is being asked to skate top pair minutes. That is a big ask. Edmundson is skating off his natural side. A trooper for sure but not ideal. Only Slavin and Pesce are plus Dmen. Yeah D is our biggest need.

 

Our third line isn't working. An upgrade would be nice.

 

Can we upgrade at goalie at a reasonable cost and for a rental at that. I'm not sure. It is worth a phone call or two

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OK I took a stab at it. This is a very loose amalgamation of teams ranking of point percent standings now plus GAR 25 and younger plus Farm System Ranking. I then adjusted a few points for team currently projected to pick in the top 6 in this year's draft. Also, I used the top 10 list for GAR 25, then an estimate score for the bottom 21 teams. Very imprecise, but I couldn't find the list for the league. Would be interested in re-ranking if someone has that.

 

Obviously this is just for pure fun. It is only a very vague guide of how good a team is, combined with a projection of the youth of their NHL team and their Farm System. It is the Some Fun Now, Still Fun Later index. The lower the score the better. Here is how they came out.

 

1. Colorado

2. Carolina

3. NYR

4. Philly

5. Vancouver

6. Pittsburgh

7. Edmonton

8. Toronto

9. Los Angeles

10. Montreal

11. Columbus

12. Detroit

13. Tampa

14. Ottawa

15. Buffalo

16. Florida

17. Vegas

18. Dallas

19. New Jersey

20. NYI

21. Anaheim

22. Arizona

23. Boston

24. Washington

25. St Louis

26. Minnesota

27. Chicago

28. San Jose

29. Winnipeg

30. Calgary

31. Nashville

 

OK, that was fun. This assumes a team is able to keep somewhat of it's base or trade guys to keep it rolling (has assets). 

 

What is most fun about this index is the very top of it. Only us and Colorado had an index under 20. (13 and 18). #3 Rangers jumped to 31. The range was 13-66). For me this was about showing how bright our situation is far more than making a list.

 

Of note: Pittsburgh surprised me, but it's because of their current strength and surprising to me, their GAR 25 and under was #5 in the league. I guess drafting well lower rounds well could keep them at least in the mix longer than I had thought post Crosby/Malkin and explains some of why they hung around with those guys out. Their farm system is #28 though. So long term they will have that working against them.

 

The Rangers kind of bum me out. They already have good GAR 25 and the #4 farm system, and should pick fairly high this year (at least we have their second rounder). But they bum me out because they get their pick UFA's including college guys, and don't show up on many NTC lists. 

 

I was surprised the NJD didn't place higher, but their farm system is #17, and their young guys have not really hit yet despite two #1 overall picks. 

 

Even with their high standing score for the team this year, the teams projected to fall back in the next few years: St Louis, Washington, and Boston caught my eye. Some of those Western teams at the bottom are by the West being weak this year.

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4 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

We know that 30+ year olds are in the millennial bucket too?  Depending on who you ask the oldest millennial will turn 43 this year. Some say 40, some say 36.  
 

most of the folks on that list are generation Z folks.  1996 and after births.

Hey now, I'm 42 and a Gen-X-er, dont go grouping me in with the mills :)

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19 minutes ago, donwalrus said:

Hey now, I'm 42 and a Gen-X-er, dont go grouping me in with the mills :)

If the shoe fits!...🤪

 

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OK I'm on a roll. Here is an index for just the future prospects: how good your young core is + how good your farm system is. Just the future.

 

1. Carolina (7)

2. Colorado (7)

3. NYR (13)

4. LA (15)

5. MTL (16)

6. Ottawa (18)*

6. Vancouver (20)

7. LA (20)*

8. Detroit (21)*

9. Philly (22)

10. Edmonton (23)

11. Buffalo (23)

12. Toronto (24)

13. Anaheim (28) *

14. New Jersey (29)*

15. Arizona (30)

16. Vegas (31)

17. Anaheim (31)*

18. Florida (31)

19. Columbus (32)

20. Pittsburgh (33)

21. San Jose (36)*

22. Chicago (37)

23. Minnesota (39)

24. Tampa Bay (40)

25. NYI (43)

26. Winnipeg (43)

27. Dallas (43)

28. Calgary (47)

29. Nashville (47)

30. Washington (54)

31. Boston (55)

 

*adjusted 3 points up due to picking at the top of this year's draft. Move whomever picks #1 up way more, and top 3 up more eventually. 

 

Yes, predicting futures is a messy business. So many things can surprise good or bad. This is just a squinty-eyed look through thick, dark glasses at a shadow of the future on a wall about 100 feet away. It doesn't factor the massively important goaltending very much. It might be interesting to look at this list in say 5 years, and see if it correlates at all with points in the standings, but it's probably a loose correlation at best. Still, it was fun and I had some time to kill.

 

What I like about it is that we're #1 and #2 is in the West. As Svech and Necas round out with Aho, TT, Hamilton, Slavin, and say Bean and Suzuki and Goat and Rees and Drury or Geekie, start filling in, will we be facing off vs Colorado a few times? Highly unlikely, but I like the idea. 

 

Also love Boston and Washington at the bottom of this future list.

 

The metro of the future? Carolina, NYR, Detroit and Philly at the top of it. My gut wants to slide NJ in there ahead of Detroit, but based on the numbers, hey, that's what I'm going with.

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28 minutes ago, donwalrus said:

Hey now, I'm 42 and a Gen-X-er, dont go grouping me in with the mills :)

You google first birth years of millennials it ranges from 77 or 86

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1 minute ago, gocanes0506 said:

You google first birth years of millennials it ranges from 77 or 86

someone back-dated that then ;). the term "millennials" didn't even exist until I was in college

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20 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

So I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for Rod to play someone with no NHL experience

 

5 hours ago, Derailed75 said:

But we shouldnt just start dumping guys and bringing up Checkers because we think its time for them to get some NHL experience

Stupid question: when it's time? Not that I don't agree with the quotes, but in general? One case I see it is when it's clear a team is not making playoffs. But as for Canes, especially this year - it's not time in the beginning of the season because we are trying to built chemistry having new faces, it's not now because we are afraid to break chemistry and pushing for playoffs... But time flies for the AHLers! Really, what's good time/circumstances to get NHL experience? 

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