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NHL trade deadline talk (Feb. 24, 2020 at 3pm ET)

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Seeing rumors on a Jonas Brodin trade. He has another year on his contract so not necessarily a pure rental. He is a left shot so not sure he is what we need.

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3 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

Seeing rumors on a Jonas Brodin trade. He has another year on his contract so not necessarily a pure rental. He is a left shot so not sure he is what we need.

I just am unsure how this would help either?

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Conspiracy theory: we want Brodin from Minnesota and they for some reason are interested in Haula instead of what we are offering them. And then coincidentally Minnesota source mentions that Haula us not happy here.

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4 hours ago, Bonivan said:

Conspiracy theory: we want Brodin from Minnesota and they for some reason are interested in Haula instead of what we are offering them. And then coincidentally Minnesota source mentions that Haula us not happy here.

Could be? I wondered about that "leak" from that source and am saddened that Haula may not be happy here? Too bad as early on his net front presence was getting it done. Should he go, wonder who'll take that on, a Checker?

Edited by KJUNKANE

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35 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

Seeing rumors on a Jonas Brodin trade. He has another year on his contract so not necessarily a pure rental. He is a left shot so not sure he is what we need.

 

I saw speculation a day or so ago that we had interest in Brodin but with the Hamilton injury that interest may have cooled. The reason would be the right/left need that changed when Hamilton broke his leg.

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Brodin is an stat darling.  Dom L. The advanced stat guru said Brodin should be the defensive defender of the year by far. He has stopped the most expected goals by far and other fantastic things. With Eric T. also big into advanced stats, I can see why we would be pursuing him.

 

Crazy enough he wouldn’t require expansion draft coverage either. 

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My preference would be to move Gardiner out and Brolin in. This may seem nuts, but Gardiner is just not working. Brolin has put up 19 assists this year, which is a big bump up for him. (for those in the know, is he working this on the PP?). But this is addition and then addition by subtraction as Gardiner is just not working out. Again, while it's a bad stat in general, it is amazing how well +/- correlates with eyeballs and more advanced stats at the extremes. It's also amazing how we almost always try to bring in largely plus players (Gardiner was plus 52 his three seasons prior to coming here). And again, I use it only because it's at the extremes in this case, and I don't have better stats to get at this issue. 

 

But this year Brolin #2 on his team in +/- at +13 on a -10 goal diff team. Gardiner is dead last on his team at -19 on a +27 goal diff team, a team where there is a D man who is +30. 

 

Why keep him and push Fleury out? 

 

Brolin in. Gardiner out. That improves this team immensely. 

 

 

Now, they are not going to take Gardiner for Brolin. Maybe Brolin for Haula, and something? Throw Gardiner in, or trade him to another team for a 2nd or third rounder. 

 

Slavin-Pesce

Brolin-Edmundson

Fleury-TVR 

 

Bean in waiting. 

 

Maybe Gardiner finds his old game. But with Dougie out, that's the risk. Not trying to replace Dougie's goals from the blueline because we can't. BTW, Brolin would be tied with Slavin for #2 in assists right now, and arguably he'd have more points playing in our system. 

 

I like the idea of adding Brolin, but not to just push Fleury back into the press box while Gardiner struggles.

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One step further on the idea of Gardiner out, Brolin in. I really like Edmundson and what he brings so would not be sad at all if we re-up him, but he is a UFA and if we made the Gardiner out Brolin in move next year could be:

 

Slavin-Pesce

Brodin-Dougie

Fleury-Bean

 

All the L/R's match up. Our first rounders get into the NHL. And that top 4 is simply amazing.

 

 

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

One step further on the idea of Gardiner out, Brolin in. I really like Edmundson and what he brings so would not be sad at all if we re-up him, but he is a UFA and if we made the Gardiner out Brolin in move next year could be:

 

Slavin-Pesce

Brodin-Dougie

Fleury-Bean

 

All the L/R's match up. Our first rounders get into the NHL. And that top 4 is simply amazing.

 

 

adding brodin would be amazing based on statistics but, we thought Gardiner would be a great add too.  A brodin for an extended Haula? 

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Until I see something more concrete I have to take the Haula rumors of wanting out with a grain of salt. If Haula truly wants out, I am fine with finding him a home. If not 

I have a hard time believing the organization would move him especially since the passing of his daughter earlier. I understand it is a business but from a personnel standpoint that would be rough. Haula has been in a funk and is seeing reduced ice time, but I think he will bounce back.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

One step further on the idea of Gardiner out, Brolin in. I really like Edmundson and what he brings so would not be sad at all if we re-up him, but he is a UFA and if we made the Gardiner out Brolin in move next year could be:

 

Slavin-Pesce

Brodin-Dougie

Fleury-Bean

 

All the L/R's match up. Our first rounders get into the NHL. And that top 4 is simply amazing.

 

 

 

Nope.  Bean shoots left and plays on the left side.

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20 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Nope.  Bean shoots left and plays on the left side.

Not sure why I thought Bean was R. Ah. Well, Fleury can play his off side I guess. 

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4 hours ago, remkin said:

One step further on the idea of Gardiner out, Brolin in. I really like Edmundson and what he brings so would not be sad at all if we re-up him, but he is a UFA and if we made the Gardiner out Brolin in move next year could be:

 

Slavin-Pesce

Brodin-Dougie

Fleury-Bean

 

All the L/R's match up. Our first rounders get into the NHL. And that top 4 is simply amazing.

 

 

Isn't Bean left handed?

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On 1/23/2020 at 1:06 PM, remkin said:

Talk amongst yourselves. 

 

 

I'll give you a topic. Rhode Island is neither a road, nor an Island. Discuss. 

 

 

Seriously though, lots to discuss during the break. All of your questions are good ones. I do think we will try to win now barring a collapse in February, for the reasons you list. But that just means we don't likely rent out anyone like Edmumdson or Haula, not that we trade our picks for help.

 

But that's now and that's my opinion. It does seem that rumors have us searching for D help. I'm not sure I see it yet unless it's to move Gardiner out. We have Slavin, Pesce, and Edmundson is underrated IMO. He's plus 5 and on pace for almost the exact stat line as Gardiner who is -19. Fleury has been very solid. 

 

I may be missing something, but IMO the only move that makes sense is if Gardiner goes OUT and a guy replaces him that can stick for a while and bring more offense than him. If Gardiner were playing the way he was supposed to, then Slavin,Pesce, Edumdson, Gardiner, Fleury and TVR would be more than good enough. Gardiner is the whole thing. If he stays bad the only move is to replace him. But to bring in another guy without replacing him won't likely be worth the cost. 

Thank you Linda Richmond. Now how about some cawfee?

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15 hours ago, Bonivan said:

Conspiracy theory: we want Brodin from Minnesota and they for some reason are interested in Haula instead of what we are offering them. And then coincidentally Minnesota source mentions that Haula us not happy here.

Minnesota drafted and developed Haula then lost him to Vegas in the expansion draft.  

 

Whether the Canes are buyers or sellers may depend on the first six games out of the bye week.  That should provide the answer as to

which way the season plays out.  ...vs Vegas...vs Vancouver...at St Louis...at Arizona...at Vegas...at Dallas. 

 

Lose 4 of those games and you're not only trailing the goodteams, but you're also trailing Toronto, Philly, Florida and Columbus with

2 weeks to go before the trade deadline.  You're probably 10thin theEast with little hope of making the playoffs.

 

Win four of the six and you've probably overtaken the Islanders for 3rd in the Metro.  You keep the pending UFA's and add a #2 center

and a solid 2-way preferably right shot defenseman and all it costs are a couple of really high draft picks and several of your top prospects. 
You try to peak at the right time and hopefully avoid any costly injuries to your star players.  Next stop -- the playoffs.  The house is rockin'
 
Even if nothing is guaranteed.
Edited by MidnightAngel
shorten it
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On 1/23/2020 at 12:15 PM, remkin said:

Well since we've got so much time between games, might as well discuss GM type moves. This team has so much going for it, and as the young stars mature it's just going to get better. But every team has some issues. One of those issues is center after this season. Rod is very stingy about who gets to be a center, and clear about what he wants in a center (as evidenced by Stone Hands continuing to be listed as our 1C all the time, and Rod's continuing effusive love for him as a top center).

 

Maybe Rod will insist the Canes sign Jean-Gabriel Pageau after he finishes this season as a rental.  He's rough and tough, good defensively and on-pace for

about 35-40 goals.  A true Brind'Amour kind of player.

 

As far as the GM talk .. You've been around long enough to know that a young team with lots of talent is not necessarily going to continue a steady upward trend

until it reaches the top.  Remember all the talk about the talent on Winnipeg a few years ago.  They were supposed to have won at least one cup by now.

And San Jose. They were in the finals just a couple of years ago. Nashville, too.  Their windows have closed.  LA? Dead.  Anaheim? Dead.  Chicago?  Dying. 
They just don't know it yet because they play in the conference where everybody is below average.
 
The point is if you have a chance to win -- you take it.  Don't worry about 1st round picks or top prospects.  Honestly, most prospects look better on paper
than they ever do in real life.  It's better to win a cup than have a 1st round pick and a bunch of prospects who may or may not develop.

 

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7 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

Minnesota drafted and developed Haula then lost him to Vegas in the expansion draft.  

 

Whether the Canes are buyers or sellers may depend on the first six games out of the bye week.  That should provide the answer as to

which way the season plays out.  ...vs Vegas...vs Vancouver...at St Louis...at Arizona...at Vegas...at Dallas. 

 

Lose 4 of those games and you're not only trailing the goodteams, but you're also trailing Toronto, Philly, Florida and Columbus with

2 weeks to go before the trade deadline.  You're probably 10thin theEast with little hope of making the playoffs.

 

Win four of the six and you've probably overtaken the Islanders for 3rd in the Metro.  You keep the pending UFA's and add a #2 center

and a solid 2-way preferably right shot defenseman and all it costs are a couple of really high draft picks and several of your top prospects. 
You try to peak at the right time and hopefully avoid any costly injuries to your star players.  Next stop -- the playoffs.  The house is rockin'
 
Even if nothing is guaranteed.

I don't see a scenario where the Canes become sellers.  The fanbase would not accept that very well.  Because of the strength of the Metro, the Canes are going to be somewhere between 3rd in the Division, and the 7-10 spot in the wildcard race.  After making the playoffs for the first time in a decade last year, I can't see Dundon wanting to throw in the towel.

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We have a brutal schedule after the break, but our team seems to have thrived for the most part against good competition. If we come up short, we will rue the losses to bottom dwelling teams early in the year. That being said, Justin Williams didn’t come back to have the team fold and sell for the future if it stumbles. The standard was set last year. Look at where we were December 31st and what happened. Columbus has come out of nowhere to the playoff cut line by winning something like 8 in a row. Philly and the Islanders had long winning streaks at some point during the year as well. Our longest winning streak so far is the 5 at the beginning of the year, but I believe this team is capable of doing that again and more. The way the fan base has grown and bought in, no way I see us being sellers. Not the message the team needs to send from a marketing standpoint if nothing else.

 

As for Haula being unhappy, IDK, but unless we make a true hockey trade, he has more value here the remainder of this year than whatever futures he might bring in a trade. We are stacked with prospects anyway - we don’t need more draft picks or prospects. Maybe keeping Ferland last year didn’t work out, but what would we have gotten for him anyway? We played our best last year with our backs against the wall. No reason we can’t do it again.

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14 minutes ago, bluedevilcane said:

If we come up short, we will rue the losses to bottom dwelling teams early in the year.

How about our record vs the Metro?

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I agree that it's unlikely we are sellers unless we just collapse. I don't see that happening, but with a 99-100 point cut line a team could drop out fast. If that happens, we might move a couple of guys. Again, don't see it happening, but if we drop back by 8-10 points...yes, we could use more picks. We can always use more picks. 

 

If we don't fall out and we move Haula it would be for another player. Rumors are that could be a D man. I don't see it unless we move Gardiner out, but the committee never rests. I liked the idea of sniping Lehner, but unless both Chicago and one of our goalies swoon, can't see that deal being there. 

 

TBH I still think our most likely move is no significant move. I don't see a gaping need that there would be an obvious guy to fill in. Of course, we are going to miss Dougies goals from the blueline, but guys who can get even halfway close to that are generally not available. Sure, moving Gardiner's massive minus out could help, but can't imagine many teams clamoring for him. 

 

TD has said he doesn't like trading the future unless the return is special and fits in longer term. That is smart IMO. More to follow on that. 

 

Trade deadline moves are often sucker bets. More on that to follow.

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So having gone through a few trade deadlines with this team, I have developed some thoughts. 

 

My first real exposure to the deadline was when this team added Mark Recchi an hour before the deadline. (And Doug Weight about this time of year before that). To get Recchi we traded a second rounder who ended up being a non NHL player and a couple of guys who never really amounted to much. This was a coup for us, and we all know how that ended. So that was the early influence on my idea of buying at the deadline. Add to that, that this team was missing on a lot of draft picks before that, and it made even more sense. 

 

But over time I've cooled on buying at the deadline, especially with draft picks and very especially with first rounders. There seems to be a predictable cycle in the perceived value of draft picks. The closer to the draft, the more GM's hold them tight. Of course it depends on other trends (how good is your NHL team, how low/high do you anticipate picking, how rich is the draft predicted to be, and just a longer term trend of younger players being key). But outside of that, the distance from the draft combined with the intensity of the perceived need affects GM's willingness to move picks out. 

 

The trade deadline and the first day of UFA are too silly seasons where the itch to get a proven player shoots up. UFA is after the draft and all about money, not picks, but the trade deadline is about trades and draft picks get moved. As the itch to add that last piece goes up, the perceived value of picks tends to go down. But get near the draft? Get near the draft and GM's suddenly guard their picks like the Hope Diamond. Every year we think picks will get swapped and players moved for picks at the draft, and every year it ends up with a parade of GM's stepping up and just making their pick. 

 

So....the time to GET draft picks, is away from the draft decreasing until the trade deadline when the opportunity pops it's head up one more time. The time to trade draft picks would be at the draft. But by then GM's have developed plans for those picks and rarely move them. 

 

So, we bought Toronto's first rounder before the season even began. Way away from the draft. It was just a cost of their cap problems. No big deal, heck they won't be picking early and they protected a top 10 pick. While admittedly that does dilute the value, just wait to see who we end up actually getting. Or, for the first time in modern drafting history, maybe we package our two first rounders and move up the board to richer territory. 

 

This team is stocked with obvious young talent. Obvious now. Outside of Svech, I can tell you that very few of us were touting Aho very early. Now it seems that everyone is, but not when he was drafted. Or Necas. Or especially Slavin, or Pesce? Even those of us who like to follow prospects mostly did not see Slavin coming at all. 4th rounder. (our second 4th rounder after Trevor Carrick, so yeah Cane's scouts cool the jets on drafting genius).

 

Of course I wrote after Slavin was drafted: "Mark my words. One day Jacob Slavin will not only make the team, but he will go to the All Star game, and not only that, he will win the sharp shooters contest. Write it down."........O.K. I didn't.

 

Anyway, the point is that you can't compile too many draft picks. 

 

The other side of that buying at the deadline is that those moves working out (Recci) are the exception to the rule. Most often those guys have trouble adjusting and don't give full value. First round picks have a 50-50 chance of becoming decent or better NHL players, but the higher the better. Second rounders 1/4 and the higher the better. So, yes, the odds are against them. But then again, the odds of winning the cup after you make the playoffs is 6.25% overall, and that assumes you don't have to play Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston, et all to get there. That also assumes that your cutline team gets in which currently sits at 72%. So, our odds of winning the cup are under 4.5%. That first or second rounder has a massively better chance of a nice NHL career than that. And those cup odds are not the real equation. The real equation is the amount that the deadline addition increases those odds. For the vast majority of available players that is a small number indeed. If our cup odds are say 4%, then maybe that guy pushes those odds up to 4.25%. 

 

The numbers favor adding more and more picks to adding a rental. Even though the picks mostly don't pan out. 

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remkin quote:   Of course I wrote after Slavin was drafted: "Mark my words. One day Jacob Slavin will not only make the team, but he will go to the All Star game, and not only that, he will win the sharp shooters contest. Write it down."........O.K. I didn't.

 

You had me there for a short time.   Now this is funny stuff !!

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If we do something serious, I hope it is for something to help now and next season.  We need a 2C, strong defender (preferably RHD), and a number one goalie for next season, potentially add a top 6 RS winger if we really want to be serious contenders.

 

If we aren’t doing that, lets keep the assets and make some more moves in the off-season.

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6 hours ago, remkin said:

So having gone through a few trade deadlines with this team, I have developed some thoughts. 

 

My first real exposure to the deadline was when this team added Mark Recchi an hour before the deadline. (And Doug Weight about this time of year before that). To get Recchi we traded a second rounder who ended up being a non NHL player and a couple of guys who never really amounted to much. This was a coup for us, and we all know how that ended. So that was the early influence on my idea of buying at the deadline. Add to that, that this team was missing on a lot of draft picks before that, and it made even more sense. 

 

But over time I've cooled on buying at the deadline, especially with draft picks and very especially with first rounders. There seems to be a predictable cycle in the perceived value of draft picks. The closer to the draft, the more GM's hold them tight. Of course it depends on other trends (how good is your NHL team, how low/high do you anticipate picking, how rich is the draft predicted to be, and just a longer term trend of younger players being key). But outside of that, the distance from the draft combined with the intensity of the perceived need affects GM's willingness to move picks out. 

 

 

Everybody thought we overpaid for Weight and Recchi back in the day.  Turned out 1.) not to be the case and 2.) who cares if it had been because it won a cup.

 

That was my point, which I apparently didn't make very well.  There are times for a team to be a seller and a time to be a buyer.  The time for the Hurricanes to

be a seller are coming to an end.  It may not be right now, but soon. 

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