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Covid 19 virus inpacts sports, NHL,Season Tix other impacts

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46 minutes ago, cc said:

The point is this is an overblown freak out.

Everyone has their opinion but I prefer to listen to doctors in the medical arena not some "expert" on a hockey forum. 

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14 minutes ago, slapshot02 said:

Everyone has their opinion but I prefer to listen to doctors in the medical arena not some "expert" on a hockey forum. 


It’s as if...

53C0BB73-0859-41AC-B3D9-E1DF1366D36E.jpeg

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Carolina Hurricanes' broadcaster John Forslund is under self-quarantine at his home after the team was told by a Detroit hotel that he had stayed in the same room as Rudy Gobert, who tested positive for coronavirus on Wednesday.

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

Carolina Hurricanes' broadcaster John Forslund is under self-quarantine at his home after the team was told by a Detroit hotel that he had stayed in the same room as Rudy Gobert, who tested positive for coronavirus on Wednesday.

 

What rotten luck...poor Johnny!

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7 hours ago, cc said:

As a scientist myself working with others for several decades, they are human and have their agendas. They are as fallible as the rest of us regardless of their degrees. Some have so much knowledge they think there is only one viewpoint. They can ignore and explain away data that does not agree with their preformed hypotheses. That is antithetical to the scientific method.  We have far too little data to make any conclusions at this point. That is why this freaking out is not supported by any semblance of reason. It’s totally reactionary.     PS I don’t claim to be an expert but I do have some relevant base of experience to draw from. 

Sorry you've become so cynical regarding your profession, cc. Although I share some of your concern, I have to say that I've long been an admirer of Anthony Fauci, agenda or not, and I pay close attention to his extremely enlightened analysis of this situation. What also was an eye opener for me in this was the fact that the Chinese doctor who was the original whistle blower "scientist" who alerted the world apparently, died from it. Wouldn't you imagine that if it's all totally "reactionary", he might have met a more appropriate fate and not succumbed to what you appear to be suggesting as overblown influenza (my characterization of course).

Edited by KJUNKANE
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19 hours ago, cc said:

The point is this is an overblown freak out.

I don't know what's scarier, the fact that someone claiming they're a scientist doesn't seem to understand the exponential effects of fractional differences in mortality rates; that said scientist is apparently not interested in or can't be bothered with looking at independent research indicating that mortality rate differences between this virus and seasonal flu may be much more than fractional...

Quote

A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.

 These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.

...or that you consider exercising an abundance of caution in the face of a deadly illness about which we still know so little to be "overblown."

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
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16 hours ago, cc said:

We have far too little data to make any conclusions at this point. 

Exactly! So to your point this virus cannot simply be described "This is NO different than many other diseases like the season flu, H1N1 Swine Flue, Zika etc .etc.". Each one of the above were very different in their charateristics. If you have no data how can you conclude it is overblown?  Doesn't sound like a rational scientific decision to me.

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My best friend's an ER doc so I personally trust him and whether you the reader trusts me to relay that information to you is up to you. I know how the "well my friend" things sometime goes.

 

The state of Ohio, that has 3 enormous cities up until recently only had 400 test kits. How the....hell do you only have 400 tests for a pandemic you knew was coming for over a month? Top that off with the CDC requiring one of three things to allow you to be tested. 

 

1. Returning from an endemic area

2. Knowing you brushed shoulders with someone with the virus.

3. Critical Respiratory illness with unknown cause.

 

So for #2, I personally don't interview everyone I walk past. I dunno about you guys.

and 3 well your almost dead.

 

So our data seems really skewed and I have my hunches on why but I'll skip that. Now that testing is free and much more available we should know very soon what's going on and adjust our plans from there.

 

What we do have is Italy's data and their hospital system is maxed out. We can take a break from a perk in our lives (sports) to try to curb this...not a big deal. 

Edited by legend-1
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Anyone have a clue  for how long  it could  take  to come up with a vaccine  for this virus ?    Im assuming simple antibiotics  wont be enough to help  people recover .   

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3 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

Anyone have a clue  for how long  it could  take  to come up with a vaccine  for this virus ?    Im assuming simple antibiotics  wont be enough to help  people recover .   

Well the running joke is that some Canadian scientists the day after hockey was shutdown were onto something. All they needed was hockey shutdown to put forth full give-o-crap power.

 

I believe a Texas company has also moved to animal trials as well this week. I have no idea how long an animal trial runs, you'd think weeks or months. I mean sure the animal didn't immediately die but did he die a month later is a question I also want answered lol.

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Off topic, I know...but now I and my military brethren can’t go ANYWHERE outside our local area starting Monday until May 11th...this includes our spouses and children.

 

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/03/14/dod-bans-all-domestic-travel-for-troops-employees-in-response-to-coronavirus-threat/
 

Just when I thought it couldn’t get more asinine...

 

 

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1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

Anyone have a clue  for how long  it could  take  to come up with a vaccine  for this virus ?    Im assuming simple antibiotics  wont be enough to help  people recover .   

 

I think the easy answer is no. I'm not a medical professional so  this is only what i read from what I hope are legitimate news and medical sources. The best guess a couple of weeks ago was it will take months to create and manufacture a vaccine. Perhaps as long as a year to a year and a half. It appears that Canadian firm has identified the virus which is a big step. I have seen where they think they are close to developing a vaccine as are claims coming from Israel and China but production will depend of regulatory procedures. Usually a new vaccine will need to undergo both laboratory and clinical trails before a production schedule is approved. 

 

Quote

on Thursday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease at the National Institutes of Health, told the U.S. House Oversight and Reform Committee that human trials for a vaccine (he did not specify the manufacturer) would be possible “within a few weeks.” However, he said that a vaccine would not be available to the broader public for another 12 to 18 months.

 

 

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4 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

I don't know what's scarier, the fact that someone claiming they're a scientist doesn't seem to understand the exponential effects of fractional differences in mortality rates; that said scientist is apparently not interested in or can't be bothered with looking at independent research indicating that mortality rate differences between this virus and seasonal flu may be much more than fractional...

...or that you consider exercising an abundance of caution in the face of a deadly illness about which we still know so little to be "overblown."

 

 

I think it comes down to whether China is covering this up or not.  If current stats are accurate then this isn't an enormous fatality rate.  If they are covering it up and the deaths Re in the hundreds of thousands or even millions, then things get much scarier.

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8 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

 

I think it comes down to whether China is covering this up or not.  If current stats are accurate then this isn't an enormous fatality rate.  If they are covering it up and the deaths Re in the hundreds of thousands or even millions, then things get much scarier.

Fatality rate will hike once (or if) medical system reaches its capacity and especially ICU capacity. And if all ICU are occupied by Coronavirus patients then folks with cardiac arrests or severe car accident injuries would not get help.

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Okay guys, here's what I know at present. The problem with coming to terms with this disease is, as one of its name implies, it is a NOVEL virus, apparently imported from animals (referred to as a zoonotic because of that). It is my understanding that due to that fact, specifics as to how it acts in humans ARE NOT UNDERSTOOD AT PRESENT. Further, it's related to both SARS and MERS, both of which seem to have a much higher mortality rate than this COVID -19 (technically this is the disease), caused by a coronovirus, the viral agent known as SARS-COV2, because apparently it shares genetic similarity with SARS. MERS reputedly seems to have come from dromedary camels in the Arabian peninsula (ie Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome=MERS), while the source of SARS (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome) apparently still remains a mystery. One facet of this current pandemic confuses me, and that is, Why has this COVID-19 spread so fast and globally, yet the other 2, similarly coronoviruses, been more or less contained? I suspect that population density associated with them may be responsible, thus in China with its millions and proximal to a huge national holiday with residents spreading far and wide may have played a cataclysmic role?

 

Treatment: currently there is no known antiviral effective against it or other remedy. Several avenues of treatment are being pursued by many drug firms, one thought seems promising is that an agent might be introduced that disrupts the viral attachment site at the cell about to be invaded? I suspect that antiviral treatment will be found much quicker than a vaccine, because a vaccine goes thru 3 stages it appears, each taking several months. One other very critical factor I've read with a vaccine was a finding made when researchers attempted to develop a vaccine for RSV, another respiratory virus, was when that vaccine was tested, the result was a dangerous "overexaggeration" if you will, of the subject's immune response, causing worsening of the disease and even death. There is, as I understand, the possibility that a SARS-COV2 might act similarly, and researchers are working with part of the virus to curtail that response.

 

Presently, statistics appear to suggest that the Chinese infection rate "might be slowing down", but as with the initial news suppression in that police state, who knows? 

 

I've debated with colleagues as to whether we'll see a "seasonality" to this disease similar to influenza, and I believe we just cannot know due to its "novel" characterization? Undoubtedly, humanity tends to congregate more in colder times, and spread out as warmer months occur, so that might affect the infection rate. 

 

One final thought. When debating the seriousness of this disease, to me, to simply dismiss it as being no worse that our friend "the flu" or to apparently over exaggerate it as "the Rapture" is simply impossible, as there's not enough testing available YET to get an actual D number (N/D). You on here that daily debate stats, from which I defer, certainly understand that better than the general population😃 Statistics are saying that the mortality of influenza is 0.1% but with it, we have huge statistics for years so that appears to be a tested number. So, I propose to you all, if we cannot test those suspected to have COVID-19, and undoubtedly there are sub-clinical cases as with all viral diseases, how can you begin to figure a mortality rate? At present though, testing those who are symptomatic, mortality has been seen to be between 1-2%, or possibly higher?

 

Whew, I feel like rem now???   

Edited by KJUNKANE
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Obviously you want to incorporate as much data as possible, but if you had to look at just one country for potential US modeling, might not Italy make more sense than China, for a number of reasons?  With a population of less than 20% of the US, Italy is at 21k confirmed cases and 1441 deaths, with both still rising despite a countrywide shutdown.  Multiply those by five and you get 100k cases, 7200 deaths, but again, who knows where it peaks?  The Italy curve unfortunately doesn't look at all like the China curve, but as Kjun points out, how accurate is the data coming out of China?

 

VERY simplistic, I know.   A really large number of variables come into play, population density, age, medical systems, etc.

Edited by LakeLivin

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

Obviously you want to incorporate as much data as possible, but if you had to look at just one country for potential US modeling, might not Italy make more sense than China, for a number of reasons?  With a population of less than 20% of the US, Italy is at 21k confirmed cases and 1441 deaths, with both still rising despite a countrywide shutdown.  Multiply those by five and you get 100k cases, 7200 deaths, but again, who knows where it peaks?  The Italy curve unfortunately doesn't look at all like the China curve, but as Kjun points out, how accurate is the data coming out of China?

 

VERY simplistic, I know.   A really large number of variables come into play, population density, age, medical systems, etc.

While true that Lake, why Italy and Iran in the 1st place outside China? You might say that the US benefited from having a harbinger (those 3 countries) of things to come, thus at least had a little time to prepare, while those 3 countries had widely disseminated disease before they knew it?

 

Also, could some cultural differences explain Italy vs US, like close association drinking wine(although that never hurts):applaud:

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None of this explains why there is no TP.

16 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Okay guys, here's what I know at present. The problem with coming to terms with this disease is, as one of its name implies, it is a NOVEL virus, apparently imported from animals (referred to as a zoonotic because of that). It is my understanding that due to that fact, specifics as to how it acts in humans ARE NOT UNDERSTOOD AT PRESENT. Further, it's related to both SARS and MERS, both of which seem to have a much higher mortality rate than this COVID -19 (technically this is the disease), caused by a coronovirus, the viral agent known as SARS-COV2, because apparently it shares genetic similarity with SARS. MERS reputedly seems to have come from dromedary camels in the Arabian peninsula (ie Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome=MERS), while the source of SARS (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome) apparently still remains a mystery. One facet of this current pandemic confuses me, and that is, Why has this COVID-19 spread so fast and globally, yet the other 2, similarly coronoviruses, been more or less contained? I suspect that population density associated with them may be responsible, thus in China with its millions and proximal to a huge national holiday with residents spreading far and wide may have played a cataclysmic role?

 

Treatment: currently there is no known antiviral effective against it or other remedy. Several avenues of treatment are being pursued by many drug firms, one thought seems promising is that an agent might be introduced that disrupts the viral attachment site at the cell about to be invaded? I suspect that antiviral treatment will be found much quicker than a vaccine, because a vaccine goes thru 3 stages it appears, each taking several months. One other very critical factor I've read with a vaccine was a finding made when researchers attempted to develop a vaccine for RSV, another respiratory virus, was when that vaccine was tested, the result was a dangerous "overexaggeration" if you will, of the subject's immune response, causing worsening of the disease and even death. There is, as I understand, the possibility that a SARS-COV2 might act similarly, and researchers are working with part of the virus to curtail that response.

 

Presently, statistics appear to suggest that the Chinese infection rate "might be slowing down", but as with the initial news suppression in that police state, who knows? 

 

I've debated with colleagues as to whether we'll see a "seasonality" to this disease similar to influenza, and I believe we just cannot know due to its "novel" characterization? Undoubtedly, humanity tends to congregate more in colder times, and spread out as warmer months occur, so that might affect the infection rate. 

 

One final thought. When debating the seriousness of this disease, to me, to simply dismiss it as being no worse that our friend "the flu" or to apparently over exaggerate it as "the Rapture" is simply impossible, as there's not enough testing available YET to get an actual D number (N/D). You on here that daily debate stats, from which I defer, certainly understand that better than the general population😃 Statistics are saying that the mortality of influenza is 0.1% but with it, we have huge statistics for years so that appears to be a tested number. So, I propose to you all, if we cannot test those suspected to have COVID-19, and undoubtedly there are sub-clinical cases as with all viral diseases, how can you begin to figure a mortality rate? At present though, testing those who are symptomatic, mortality has been seen to be between 1-2%, or possibly higher?

 

Whew, I feel like rem now???   

 

None of this explains WHY THERE IS NO TP AT THE STORE.

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53 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

None of this explains why there is no TP.

 

None of this explains WHY THERE IS NO TP AT THE STORE.


Because I bought half the stock back in January.  😜

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1 hour ago, coastal_caniac said:

None of this explains why there is no TP.

 

None of this explains WHY THERE IS NO TP AT THE STORE.

image.jpeg.04a913c5c753238982b26d2d6bb3927a.jpeg

 

He's requested all of it.

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If the threat of having a bad cold wiped out the T.P. stock. I cant imagine whats going to happen when we really have a crisis.......🤧

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I am an ED doc. I am not an epidemiologist or Infectious disease expert, but I'm pretty much in the line of fire, so I'm keenly interested in staying up to date on this issue. Below is a publicly available discussion from the best ED continuing education service there is called EM Rap. It is aimed at ED docs, and an ED perspective. I can't say exactly how well this will be understood by non doctors, since I don't have that perspective anymore, but it seems pretty well explained. Mel Herbert is a very smart ED doc with a talent for framing issues simply and he interviews a triple boarded expert covering many issues that are of interest well beyond the ED. This video is about 50 minutes, but it covers a lot of issues.

 

 

 

I would add a few thoughts (of course). 

 

I'm thinking that the best model is probably South Korea rather than Italy because S. Korea has tested BY FAR the most people outside of China, including the walking well who have very minor disease. The actual mortality rate is not known yet, but will be below the 3% mentioned by some, and well above the typical seasonal flu. The S Korea data suggests that once we get the full denominator the number will be at or below 1%. 

 

Clearly this mortality is relative. Age is huge. Kids do fine. People over 80 have a 15% mortality, and add in other medical problems and the rate jumps even more. 

 

In the "I know a guy who knows a guy" category, one of my PA's husband has a very close friend that works extensively in China fairly close to Wuhan. He says that while the streets were once empty, now restaurants are filling back up. This does suggest that there is a wave of really bad, then eventual recovery. Of course in China they can shoot you if you disobey, so we might see something a bit different. Again, I'd look to South Korea. But even they got hit hard with no time to flatten the curve, which if we can do it, might help us.

 

As Mel Herbert says in the above video and the evidence shows, this is not the scourge of the Earth pandemic we are all fearing. It is serious. It will kill massive numbers of people. But the vast majority of people will do fine. In a half full glass sense, this could give us a wake up call for the big bad one. While the Covid 19 is more contagious than Flu by about 2X, it is not crazy contagious like say Measles or crazy deadly like say Ebola. It is still mostly on surfaces, and people coughing in your face. Stay 6 feet away and wash hands and don't touch your face. 

 

The main problem is that our system is in no way ready for "the big one" and not even ready for a "significant, but still fairly small" uptick in ICU patients. Even a fractional increase in very sick people could easily overwhelm our current system, and a slightly bigger one will overwhelm the ICU system. This is the main problem, and the big fear with this pandemic. As an ED doc, pre Covid 19, I've faced frequent times where our hospital's ICU was full and my first 3 calls to the big facilities (UNC, Duke, Wake, Rex, or Vidant) were met with "no beds" responses. This is not including any seriously sick Covid patients. There is some flex ability by using OR ventilators, but if we face too many critically ill patients in too high of a peak, well that's where Italy is. The closing of events and travel is almost entirely to prevent that huge spike in critically sick patients. They are the whole thing, because the rest are fine at home and we have plenty of homes. This is why I support all of these seemingly overreactions. 

 

The other thing is this. If we allow this very contagious disease to take out our front line workers, even for two weeks, then we have a secondary issue in trying to care for not only the Covid critically ill patients, but our already overcrowded regular patients. 

 

A vaccine will probably get here quicker than some experts are projecting, but as mentioned in the video, it's easy to identify potential vaccine compounds, but they have to be tested for safety and efficacy. Vaccines have huge variations in both. (The first shingles vaccine was about 50% effective, the newest one is over 95% effective). If the disease ends up with a .6% mortality. The vaccine needs to be much less dangerous than that and also show effectiveness. While it can be rushed, it still has to be tested. And it has to be tested in populations exposed to the disease and populations most negatively affected by the disease too. Estimates of a year are probably pretty close to right, though new techniques and more cases in the population to test, and the tendency to want to underpromise and overdeliver, lead me thinking maybe sooner. 

 

I agree that some treatments might get here sooner than the vaccine, but antivirals to date have a very mixed record. Tamiflu, for instance, barely does anything for typical flu patients. Treatments are more likely to be helpful for sicker patients. 

 

Stocking up on toilet paper is nuts. You can have all of the toilet paper, I'll take the sanitizer. (Though covid 19 can be passed fecally, so be careful in public restrooms not to touch the door on the way out after washing hands).

 

I have no doubt this will pass through and be done at some point. (Though its not that likely that it will die due to summer temperatures). There will be herd immunity at some point. How much damage can we mitigate during the worst part? That's what all of the fuss is about. Unless of course you are an 85 year old diabetic, COPD patient. Then the fuss is about you.

 

For most of the rest of us:  Wash your hands. Don't cough in my face. Don't touch your face. Wash your hands again. 

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