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remkin

NHL Draft 2020

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So, the NHL is pushing to move it's draft up possibly about a month away. Might as well start to look at it. Certainly the general topic is open for discussion: how, when, why? 

 

Also though, the idea of who we might take is always worth some looks. 

 

I'll start with a couple of very broad posts.

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OK, so I wanted to look at what sort of players might be available for our pick. If we do the draft in early June it will be points percentage. This would put us at #19 with Toronto's pick and ours traded to Florida. So, barring a trade up (constant wish, never happens), who might be there at #19? 

 

A few observations and assumptions on my part. The observations are true, the assumptions are my guess. 

 

At this point, my analysis is 100% based on my patented ranking/mock draft culmination software (me adding things up). I have no knowledge of any of the players in our range of the draft yet. This is in part to throw out a few names to find out about. 

 

Observation: this is a very forward heavy top of draft. Forwards dominate, at least the top 2/3 of the mock drafts and rankings.

Observation: the top 10 is pretty locked down, and really fair to say the top 13 are out of play for us at 19. I'll list them, but not consider them.

Observation: someone always drops, so you never know, but I see us going forward, and 10-13 are D and goalies, so really I doubt any forward in the top 10 drop to us.

 

Assumption: We take a forward. This is based on three major things.

 

1. The D are thin in this draft. There is only one consensus top 10 pick D man: Drysdale. IMO this means that teams that want D will reach for them, especially as the most elite forwards start going off the board in big run. Chances are that only 2 or 3 D men go in the top 10. Then there is the goalie Askarov widely seen as top 10 pick, but almost surely by #12 if he drops. So, most likely by #11 a run on the few remaining decent D men happens. All of this means that by #19 it is most likely that the best player available is a forward, by a wide margin. 

 

2. We are stacked with young D men, and prospects and options on D. It is hard to see grade A prospects like Bean and Keane finding room as it is. 

 

3. Drafting D in the first round is dicey, especially guys generally ranked near second round, in the first round. It hasn't worked great for us so far and we've picked them high.

 

So my bet: we go for a forward. If by some goalie, russian fear Askarov falls, we should take him. But otherwise we go with a forward. 

 

OK a bit later I'll post the guys I think will be available and their overall rankings. 

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In a very loose order, here are guys who will be gone IMO by 19.

 

1. Alexis Lafreniere

2. Quinton Byfield

3. Tim Stutzle

4. Cole Perfetti

5. Jamie Drysdale D

6. Marco Rossi

7. Alexander Holtz

8. Lucas Raymond

9. Anton Lundell

10. Jake Sanderson D

11. Yaroslav Askarov G    (above this will almost certainly be gone by 19)

12. Kaiden Guhle D

13. Brayden Schneider D

 

This leaves 5 slots: 14-18, picking ahead of us. Some might take one of those D as a team reaches into my stack for the next forwards, and some might take a different D in a reach. 

 

14. Florida: a lot say D, but mixed

15. Columbus: Forward

16. Calgary: mixed 

17. Vancouver: mixed

18. Nashville: mixed

 

So I have a list of 5 forwards that are clearly the best case tier for us. If there is a run on D from 10-18, that sees my picks for 1-13 and just ONE more D taken from 14-18, then we will be able to pick from that tier. More to come.

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One more note. Every draft is obviously dependent on scouting, but this will be for us a huge "scout's" draft for us this year. By that I mean, the top 15 picks are so widely known, that really the picks are fairly easy. But at 19, and especially our second rounders, and later, will be very dependent on our scouts. There is a general consensus of tiers of players after the top 10, for round 1, but there are also some intriguing outliers that could be taken at 19. In this case guys who some scouts have much higher than most. Reaching for them could be a huge win, if our scouting is on. I'll also throw those names out there. 

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Our strategy will be dependent on the 2 draft picks we have in air with NYR and NJ.  The terms will be important.

 

I think are needs are goaltender (5 year turn around), RHD (2-4 year turnaround) and then prospect depth.  

 

Over the next 3 years, our biggest hole in the roster will be goaltenders.  We have plenty of bottom 6 capable forward prospects capable of coming in over that time.  We have plenty of options on D with Fleury, Bean, and Keane in the wings.  

 

Knowing we cant fill our goaltender need in the draft, I say we go with BPA and depth. 

 

My opinion based on pick 18-20, I look to trade down and get another 2nd rounder as well. 

My targets are:

C Lapierre- the guy was a top 7-12 talent until the three concussions.  Moving down in the higher 20s and still picking him while getting another 2nd would be ideal.  He would be a reach due to health issues but we add another dart in the 2nd to make up for the potential let down.  TBH I would give him a good signing bonus and tell him to shut it down for a year.

LW Neighbors- big body kid that makes contact, doesnt mind camping in front of the net (yes please) and is a good passer.  

D Guhle- yes, yes we wont draft a defender in the first round.  The dude has the write up and play that looks very simliar to Slavin.  Minute eater that plays smart defense in all situations but a limited offense.  

 

If Quinn is still around at 19, I go ahead and snatch him up.  

 

2nd round

LW Greig- scoring sandpaper dude.  The kid is like the guys that made the Canes, the Canes in the early to mid 2000s.  High motor guy, grit, agitator. Sounds like a Brindy type of guy.  He almost doubled his points this season from last for the Wheat Kings (Mattheos old squad). He is a lot like Rees in his write-up.  Most PIMs among first time draft eligible WHL players this season. Playing against taller NHL players may make some of his hits less questionable. 

RHD Cotton- Good size. Has a write up like Faulk without the miscues.  He is an overager so that is why he is here versus higher.  An overager being slotted in the 2nd speaks to his current production.

LHD Wallinder- big guy at 6'4 that was projected a 1st round pick.  He is raw and didnt quite put it together like foiks had projected.  The plus is he is Swedish and we can leave him there until ready for the AHL. Plus his name brings up good memories.

C Peterson / W Tuch- Both are committed to Boston U.  We dont have a ton of luck with the NE boys going to school first.  Both are big body dudes that play a heavy game.  

D Jurmo- who would we be if we didnt target a Finn in the 2nd round?  Bigger player at 6'4 but has trained a lot with his smaller countrymen to be more agile and offensive minded while on defense.  Has been a riser this season.  Was originally slotted as a 5th rounder and has jumped up to early 3rd.  Could be our 2nd, 2nd round pick knowing Pitkanen has got a good look at him.

 

Question becomes when do we use all this money TD spent on Russian scouting? 3rd round or later? Or am I showing a Russian bias?  

 

Edited by gocanes0506

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

. . .

 

Assumption: We take a forward. This is based on three major things.

 

1. The D are thin in this draft. There is only one consensus top 10 pick D man: Drysdale. IMO this means that teams that want D will reach for them, especially as the most elite forwards start going off the board in big run. Chances are that only 2 or 3 D men go in the top 10. Then there is the goalie Askarov widely seen as top 10 pick, but almost surely by #12 if he drops. So, most likely by #11 a run on the few remaining decent D men happens. All of this means that by #19 it is most likely that the best player available is a forward, by a wide margin. 

 

2. We are stacked with young D men, and prospects and options on D. It is hard to see grade A prospects like Bean and Keane finding room as it is. 

 

3. Drafting D in the first round is dicey, especially guys generally ranked near second round, in the first round. It hasn't worked great for us so far and we've picked them high.

 

So my bet: we go for a forward. If by some goalie, russian fear Askarov falls, we should take him. But otherwise we go with a forward. 

 

OK a bit later I'll post the guys I think will be available and their overall rankings. 

 

I think there's a fourth thing that probably trumps all of the others, lol. Didn't Dundon say he was generally against drafting D-men with early picks last summer?

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6 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I think there's a fourth thing that probably trumps all of the others, lol. Didn't Dundon say he was generally against drafting D-men with early picks last summer?

He said that we wouldn’t draft a D in the first round while he was the owner. D men can be bought 

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6 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

@remkin I havent seen Guhle as high as 12.  Where are seeing that?  

Kimmeleman and Morreale have him going #13 in their mock draft and Lepage also on NHL.com has him #14. ISS Hockey has him #14. 

 

So how do I slot him at #12? Good question. Here's the thing about this draft. By #13, the consensus rankings I've seen have only 2 D men taken, and really only Drysdale as a near certainty (with Sanderson hitting most around 12, but possibly falling even farther). So, I'm just slotting 2 more D men in the top 13 thinking that more than 2/13 will take D men. Based on straight compilation, Guhle comes out about 17 ish. But in all 3 NHL.com mock drafts he's the 3rd (2) or 4th (1) D man off the board. I'm speculating someone will draft by position and reach for him.

 

He's below my "for sure" won't drop to 19 line though. And that's for sure! (That he's below it).

 

But that's the thing. After Drysdale and then Sanderson, there is essentially no consensus on the next D man to go. Guhle has the next highest composite ranking, but that's just because they're all over the place. Trying to pick the order of D men after Sanderson will not be easy. Scheider, Walinder, ORourke, Gans, Poirer, Barron, Viro and others could be the 3rd or 4th D man taken, or could slide to the bottom of the round or into the second round, and there are a few that even slide Sanderson down. Drysdale is about the only near certain top 15 D man there is. 

 

Yet I'm guessing that at least some teams ahead of us will pick D men. They almost always do. I expect a run on forwards in the top 10, quite probably only one D man taken in there. Then Askarov the goalie probably goes say #11 (if not sooner). Then maybe Sanderson on D. After that? Who knows? But I have to think with then, 13-18, 6 more picks and at least 9 forwards gone, that someone in those next 6 picks goes D. They like Scheider or Wallinder....but that will be the key question (IMO) as to how highly thought of the guy we get is. If no one from 12 down picks D men, we will miss that next tier of guys. If two pick D men, we could get one.

 

Now at this point, I'm completely just looking at scouting rankings and a few select mock drafts when I say next tier. Just that there is a layering in the combined rankings of about 5 forwards that could fall to us. Then a drop to one guy. Then three more clustered. 

 

There are at least 4 wild card type guys too. That is guys that have been injured or have wildly divergent rankings of scouts. 

 

I'm going to just list them in order of combined score, then list those 4 wild cards. Just to put some possible names out there. Then I plan to really dive deep in the next few weeks. 

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So, in order of my patented combined ranking score, here are the forwards that IMO could drop to us. The top of the list are more unlikely (but a few years ago I had one Martin Necas in there and clearly he did).

 

Dawson Mercer: Center: 13.5

Jack Quinn: R.Wing: 13.8

Dylan Holloway: Center: 14.9

Connor Zary: Center: 15.1

Rodion Amirov: L Wing: 16.5

Noel Gunler: R Wing 19.0

Seth Jarvis: Center: 21.1

Hendrix Lapeirre: Center: 21.8

Mavrik Bourque, Center: 22.4

 

Wild Cards: (have scouts that like them and others that don't)

 

Jan Mysak

Ty Smilanic

Brendon Brisson

John-Jason Petrerka

 

The rankings are tighter for some than others. Some have wide variation and it's not nuts for a LOT of movement for all fo those names up there.

 

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7 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

Our strategy will be dependent on the 2 draft picks we have in air with NYR and NJ.  The terms will be important.

With Vatanen it was about whether he played a game with us I think, well if the carts(season) before the horse(draft)....how do you figure that out? If the season resumes and for some reason we use Vatanen do we give them whomever we picked?

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44 minutes ago, legend-1 said:

With Vatanen it was about whether he played a game with us I think, well if the carts(season) before the horse(draft)....how do you figure that out? If the season resumes and for some reason we use Vatanen do we give them whomever we picked?

Idk how that will. We basically tell NJ we expect to play him and we’ll give you a 4th. If he doesn’t end up playing 5 games you’ll give us a 4th in 2021 to even it out.  Just my guess.

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@remkin it’s sound logic on Guhle. Other scouting services has him rated in the 20s.  
 

If this was a standard draft, the amount of movement from picks 12-31 could be ridiculous.   10-35 rankings are all over the place.  This is a solid draft to acquire more assets if “our guy” falls. 
 

Quinn or Zary are my two if they are there. I only hope Greig doesn’t end up with Washington. 

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In past year's I'd post a list like that and have some idea about the players and who I'd pick. In this case I don't know much about any of them outside of position, height and weight and where they play. I am posting their average draft position projected by several scouting services and several mock drafts. 

 

What I left off was the range, which is important. In terms of upside especially, since lately we've favored upside to a tighter consensus. In that regard, the highest upside guys are also the top 4, but possibly in two orders: Mercer, Quinn, Zary Holloway in terms of single highest draft projection as Mercer has one vote for #6. I look at 11 rankings. If you throw out the two high and two low, then it goes Quinn, Mercer, Holloway, Zary with the highest upside consensus. 

 

But those 4 guys are the only ones with top 10 "votes", and Quinn/Mercer is slightly but significantly above Zary/Holloway. 

 

Amirov is by himself at #5. 

 

Then Jaris/Gunler form a pair. 

 

And Lapierre and Bourque are next.

 

I really like our "highest upside" approach. High end talent is the hardest to get, especially for a small market team that can't Ranger-poach guys. Also, we have a deep farm and deep young NHL talent. Swing for the fences. You only need to connect a couple of times. This is why I always favor trading up, it's also why almost no team trades down out of the highest ranks. (Though in this draft, a team that covets D men might think about it after Drysdale is gone...but it's still unusual).

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the prize for carolina  would to make a major trade  to possibly  move up in the draft high enough to possibly snag   Askarov .   other wise  it's a complete drain  .   since that would be the ideal focus to try and get him .  but i doubt  the move would happen let alone   him  staying  above top 10 .  

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2 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

the prize for carolina  would to make a major trade  to possibly  move up in the draft high enough to possibly snag   Askarov .   other wise  it's a complete drain  .   since that would be the ideal focus to try and get him .  but i doubt  the move would happen let alone   him  staying  above top 10 .  

That is a thought. I was going to post something on that too. The goalie situation has been so hard for this franchise that it just seems like we can't throw too many darts including one at the top prospect, until we finally hit the target.

 

Personally I think Askarov would have to drop a lot more than he's projected for us to trade up. The reason is simply the utter lack of teams willing to make the trade of an elite pick for a few non elite picks/prospects. Every year I want to move up. But it never happens. I'm assuming that in the end those top teams are unwilling to move down for anything close to a reasonable price.  Moving up 10 or more spots has proven to be very difficult. What little movement we've seen in recent years was just a few spots up or down.

 

But goalie is a position that many GMs are hesitant to take. Not only are they notoriously variable in their actual development, but they can take 5-6 years to even become rookie ready, and most GM's know that might be past their shelf-life. Due to that, he might slide down some. If he gets down to say #14, then moving up 5 spots mid draft, is at least in the realm of possibility. But odds are he won't slide that far.

 

I don't disagree though. We are one long term stud goalie away right now IMO, allowing for the development of guys already in the system. 

 

In the end, I suspect we keep taking shots at goalie in later rounds. 

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OK going to profile those guys up there one at a time until I get sick of it, like I'm getting with the Covid thread. 

 

Top of the list (really it's almost a coin toss with Quinn), is Dawson Mercer. Odds are that he doesn't fall to us. He likely goes around 13-14 based on averages. But players do drop. Again, IMO that happened with Necas. This is one of the most optimistic picks we could make at 19. But at least one scout had him ranked #20, so you never know. Depending on how the thing plays out he could be worth a trade up. Another scout has him at #6. 

 

Mercer is 6-0 around 180 last year of juniors. He was a right winger his first two years and a center his final year. His draft year he put up 24 goals, 26 assists and 60 points in 42 games for 1.43 ppg. That is first round production, but he might be even better. His first 26 games with his primary team he put up 18 goals and 42 points in 26 games good for 1.61 ppg, which is very good. Then he was traded and fitting into a new team dropped a bit to 1.21 ppg over his last 16 games with the new team. He then had a serious wrist injury and was done early. 

 

It is hard to find negatives about this player. The only thing I found was "playmaking decisions questionable at times". There was a bit about D zone play, but then a lot of positive about that. And he plays in the Q where traditionally D is an after thought especially for the high end guys. Any positives about a guy from the Q on defense suggests he can improve there, and he gets positives on D positioning and forechecking.

 

He has high end passing and sniping. He has above average, but not blinding speed. But he has a very good first step. He has very good edge work. He plays PK and PP and does both well. Accurate tape to tape passes in one motion. High end offensive instincts. Wins battles. Smart around the net. "owns silky smooth hands, soft hands". Can look flashy like a 10 year vet in the o zone, then smothering checker. Good playmaker, but also a natural sniper. Finishes Checks. Quick on the forecheck. Good puck protection. Creates turnovers. 

 

Really, this sounds like a guy that fits our profile perfectly. He projects as a complementary top 6 forward that can be sort of an all around guy on such a line. But he is a tenacious forechecker, which is our thing. Getting a guy like that at pick #19 would be a coup. From what I've read, again worth a trade up IMO. 

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Jack Quinn: 6'0, 175. Projects to either wing, but has played all three forward positions.

 

Quinn might be really even higher than Mercer. If I had used Pronman and Russo from the Athletic, he would have been. They have him going #11, and Pronman said based on discussions with teams, he thinks Quinn could go even higher. But some have him ranked as low as 23, so he's at least a possibility. 

 

Part of the thing with Quinn is that he's a riser. Really a meteoric riser. He was completely off the radar a few years ago playin in AA before going to AAA and then on to the OHL two years ago but really just as a role player. At the end of last year, he had some serious question marks. He had weaknesses in size/strength and ability to make space to make plays. By the middle of the year it was apparent that he had fixed those things, and they were no longer weaknesses, and in at least a couple of areas, now strengths. He went from a very pedestrian 12 goals and .52 ppg in 19-20, to 52 goals and 1.43 ppg this year, good for #2 in the OHL in goals. 

 

Reading a scout from preseason last year: "under 6-0 and slight of build" "trouble creating space to drive play" 

To that same scout midseason this year: "6-0, added strength" "excellent at creating space for himself and teammates". 

 

This is the theme on Jack Quinn: just keeps rising. He identifies flaws and fixes them. 

 

The balancing thing on the other side? He's one of the oldest players in this draft eligible year. Some scouts put a lot of weight on this. He's nearly a full year older than the kids on the low end. He added a lot of strength which is good, but that could also allow him a sizable advantage in a junior league. It is very common for guys to bust out their post draft years in Junior hockey. That is less reliable than production during their draft eligible year. So adding so much muscle and being older might shade his numbers up.

 

But it looks pretty likely that he will be seen far more for his rise and his productivity than his age. Most likely he's gone before 19, but again, some scouts have him still there, so, lie Mercer, we can hope.

 

Negatives: not many. Not a speedster, and only and average skater. That's about it.

 

Positives: "ticket to the league is shot" (voted 3rd best shot in OHL). "talented offensive playmaker". "dynamic puck skill and creativity". "keeps puck on string". "maneuvers in and out of traffic". "good vision" "high IQ". "hands quite good". "anticipates where teammates will be". "strong motor" "hardest working player on team". "underrated as 200 foot player". Voted #3 player in OHL as dangerous around the net.

 

He plays on the same team as assist machine and top 10 pick Rossi, but he was not on the same line, so only benefited from him on the PP. 

 

The fact that he is such a hard worker and has worked so hard to add muscle and fitness should appeal to Brind'Amour. He's reportedly a good teammate which is key here too. The question with the overachievers is will that keep on through the AHL and into and up through the NHL to get to top 6 minutes, or does the older age and hard work mean he's more at his peak now, and will be less useful as he goes up? IMO that's what could drop him. But for sure at #19 this is a guy to grab and wonder how on Earth he fell to you. 52 goals is still 52 goals, and even though he's older, it is still his draft year. He sounds like he'd fit in here too. There are many very good NHL players who got there by outworking everyone else as well as decent talent. One Rod Brind'Amour comes to mind.

 

And to look way too far out, we have guys like Suzuki and Necas to dangle and speed up the ice. A hard working guy with a sniper shot who goes to the net, but still has high end puck handling and passing and vision, would be a nice complement to a top 6 line with the guys we currently have.

 

When it comes to Quinn and Mercer, we'd be lucky as heck if one of them fell all the way through 12,13,14, 15,16,17, 18. It's not likely. But they won't both fall, that's almost a certainty. So, if one does? Grab that one. And both guys could well be worth a trade up a few spots to grab.

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These  up coming drafts except next years  2021 draft  have some insane talent coming  .     The one thing  i wonder   2 or 3 years from now  how are the canes going to be ? Contender  or  dropped off the face of the planet  like Ottawa  and just dismantled   after a few years  quickly  ?  I like to think the Canes are in top end shape to be contending for a cup  for a long while . 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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Next on the projected depth chart is Dylan Holloway C/Wing a Freshman at Wisconsin. He projects average at #15, so getting closer to our pick at #19.

 

Holloway is interesting because he might slide a bit. The reason: he had just an average Freshman year at Wisconsin in terms of production which has led some scouts to question his NHL upside. However, that also makes him intriguing at #19 because he could fall there, while others go higher. 

 

Holloway can play Center or Wing. He is a left shot, and is listed at 6'1", 203 on Wisconsin's page. Pretty good size. The intrigue for me comes in part due to his explosive production in Junior A hockey the year before he went to Wisconsin. He racked up 88 point in 53 games. Going backwards to 2006 no other player historically came close to that on his team. This is evidence that he could be more productive than he was as a Freshman. His first year at Wisconsin he scored 8G and 9 assists in 35 games for a .49 ppg average. This is not terrible, but not top of the heap either. (Our own Jack Drury put up .75 ppg in his freshman year at Harvard).  

 

But there is reason to think Holloway could be hiding some production. He played with two even more highly touted prospects Cole Caulfield (#15 last year) and Alex Tourcotte (#5 overall last year). Some scouts think he was playing a more supportive role as a Freshman. Also, NCAA freshman can be hit or miss. Finally, he posted a lot of his scoring in the last month of the season suggesting he was coming on. Add that to his huge scoring in Juniors and he did put up 4 points in 7 games in the WJC. 

 

Still, until a player puts up the points in the higher league, it is a question mark. He gets good overall scouting marks in total game as mentioned below, but one scout did say that he doesn't have the very highest end skill that is most likely to translate into top NHL player. This doesn't mean he won't though. Again, one reason why he might drop. 

 

Another reason he might drop is that size is dropping as a first round desirable trait. And while Holloway may have more production in him, he is a power forward type, and uses  his size. This is good really, but maybe fallen a bit out of favor. 

 

The biggest down side I found was "needs to improve his shot". At the moment, he is not a sniper. And to this effect: "scoring upside is in question". Personally, I want us to try to go with big scoring upside, so it is a concern. This is not a guy I'd trade up for. But if more proven producers are gone, you have to take some chances at #19.

 

The good: 

 

Very good speed. If size is a plus, his speed is a bigger plus. He's fast. He skates well too: good initial step, instant directional changes keeping the puck with him. Excellent balance. 

High hockey IQ. 

Very hard worker. Excellent forechecker. High grit. Tenacious in puck battles. Never backs down. 

Impacts shifts even when not scoring.

Good hands. Expert distributor. Great vision.

Excellent away from puck. 

Strong on D. 

Drives net. 

 

What I see is a guy with all the tools (except sniping) who busted out in Junior A but got a slow start in NCAA. While he may not have super elite skills, we're not picking in the top 5 either. We value in my opinion: production, hockey IQ, skills, speed, desire, compete, then size. He has all of them except production, but if he really has all the skills listed above, it seems that he'd be a pretty good bet to break out this year at Wisconsin. 

 

I tend to agree with the rankings so far because I just think Quinn and Mercer are surer bets. But if they are gone, which is very likely, and if Holloway drops a few slots from his projection, we could do worse. Even if he never hits the highs suggested by his Junior A numbers, and doesn't end up in a top 6 role, his downside is still top 9 given everything else in the package.

 

Scott Wheeler at the Athletic spent a prolonged time in Wisconsin and watched Holloway play a lot. He likes him for his athleticism and ability to create disruption in plays along with his hockey IQ. He projects him as a third liner, but thinks his upside is least talented guy on an NHL first line. I guess in a way he's the antithesis of our recent draft strategy of risking downside for upside, as a guy with very little downside but a ceiling. 

 

Still, I go back to those eye popping Junior numbers and the fact that he was one of the two youngest players in NCAA. His upside could be bigger than it seems.

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Connor Zary is in essentially a statistical tie with Holloway, but he has higher up, and lower low to his rankings hitting as high as 9, but as low as 24 (elite prospects). This is another forward ranked to go higher than 19 (mean around #15, which is where The Athletic has him going). However, surprise bumps in other forwards and a run on D men could push him to 19. Based on rankings, he would be a very good get at 19. Craig Button has him ranked #11.

 

He is a center. He has good size: 6'1", 181. 

 

Zary's production in the WHL progressed in true first rounder fashion. He was just over a ppg his pre draft year, and bumped that way up to 1.51 ppg his draft year. In the end, the single biggest factor in determining NHL success for all non goalies is still ppg in their draft year in juniors. That's a harder comparison in European mens' leagues, but at least the junior hockey players, it's a decent metric. (The top 4 forward picks ppp range from 1.82-2.15 ppg (LaFreniere). But 1.51 is first round good).

 

Mike Morreale at NHL.com has Zary as the #12 best player, basically the first forward out of the top 10 and tops of they guys on my list (though Mercer is next at #13). 

 

Scouting phrases: Excellent Vision. Hard working. Never quits. Always one of the best players on the ice. Great speed. Deft puck skills. Dangerous with shot and pass. Two way player. Wants puck on his stick at key times. Plays in all situations.

 

Some more positives from Pronman at the Athletic in January (they don't have much more recent up yet). Quick hands to dazzle and create a highlight reel moment. Thinks his skating will be average, but good enough. Works hard, drives net. A great 2 way center. He had him at #10 mid season.

 

Weakness: Skating is average. This is also listed as his "only weakness". "Not going to wow you or pull you out of your seat, but always impacts the game over 60 minutes". This is not really a weakness, but a downside for the ceiling thing. Wheeler says his ceiling is versatile, playmaking second line center. 

 

So Zary is has first round production and skills, but not the highest level of elite skills. Probably more likely a near sure fire 3rd line center, with upside to 2nd line. Given this, I do find it interesting that some have him as high as #9 on the draft board. 

 

This is a good player. He would be a bit like our second round pick Jack Drury, who I still have pretty high hopes for. He is a Brind'Amour type player. I would feel good about this pick and he'd be a huge get based on rankings. He doesn't necessarily fit the mold of "very high upside with some risk", but even though we've been generally drafting that way, we are not doing it with every pick, again, I'd say Jack Drury was not that type of pick. 

 

I might have him near the top of this list IMO. 

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Anton Lundell   and Askarov  both on the hurricanes  would be a dream come true . 

 

I  didnt   put to much merit  in  this years draft  for  any of the rounds  because i kinda saw the canes going deep again in the playoffs  like last year .  

 

But  yeah  just focus on  getting some offensive talent and   big defense men  that  would play their hearts out for  Brind'Amour  and we should be good . 

 

Goalie is not an option   outside of Askarov   since most of the goalies in this years draft are looking to be  6th 7th round picks .  

 

Next years draft i do have my eyes set on one player  the canes should consider  picking up if he is not snagged   in the 6th or 7th round .   Aito Iguchi .  would not hurt to try .  

Edited by Canesfanforever

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If, IF, they decide to go right back to the playoffs in say June, I would rather have the draft post playoffs.  We’ll see more movement in the draft that way. 

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Radion Amirov. 6'0" 168. 

 

Plays in Russia. Dominant in lower leagues, but limited role and only 2 points in 21 games in KHL. Could be a nice addition for Svechnikov. But also, since he's staying in Russia, has that "might stay there a while" risk, but then that could also push him down the board.

 

Main knocks on him are size and lack of breakaway speed. Not physical.  Pronman, mid season called him good but not great in men's leagues, but very impressive as an underage player in Junior. 

 

Still, overall, he is the top Russian forward, and the consensus of scouts have him around #17, with a range of 12-25, and mostly 13- 19. Craig Button has him at #19, our spot. Also, as a Russian staying in Russia, that might drop his stock and drop him to us.

 

Comments: Extremely elusive in tight places, excellent puck control in all three zones. Competes for every puck and usually wins. Very good work ethic. High hockey IQ. Good skater. Plays all 3 zones. While not physical is thought of as very good D player: anticipates, good positioning and good stick. He steals a lot of pucks. (All of those things sound a bit Aho-ish. Just those things). Can impact game effectively 5 on 5. Makes many subtle plays that all add up. 200 foot game. Agile with excellent edge work.  Excellent wrist shot with quick release. Very effective on forecheck. 

 

I like a lot of that. OK, not the dazzling skill, but strong at just about every aspect of the game. I'm not saying this is Aho, but a lot of his game sort of looks like him to me. He gets on the forecheck, works hard and plays a 200 foot game. He may not end up being a superstar, like Aho, but at #19, getting a very solid top 6 forward is not bad.

 

On the one hand, I'm a bit concerned he might be one of those guys that stays in Russia "too long". On the other hand, I really think we can afford do wait on him. With Svechnikov on board, this would be a solid pick at #19 IMO.

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