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NHL Draft 2020

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1 hour ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

Not even a surprise.  Still bet if he's there we go for a winger.

I'm leaning Askarov, but I do get the strategy of going for the best forward and trying to find the goalie out there somewhere from the existing guys. If one can find that guy, you end up with two pieces and the winger probably gets to the NHL sooner. 

 

In addition to whatever the committee's thoughts are on Askarov and the idea of drafting a goalie that high, it could also come down to what forward is still there and who they have a hankering for. So often one guy drops (like Necas did) and it's harder to pass on that guy. If a Holtz or Lundell drop to 13, that could matter too.

 

I guess the maximum intrigue would be if Askarov is still there and we get to see how they play it.

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I am not sure I go after Askarov if he is still there at #13.   There are going to be plenty of experienced goalies available on the UFA market.   Of course I am not sure we could get rid of one of our goalies in order to make a trade but I would rather go that route than draft a "possibility".   Goalies take a long time to play at the NHL level.  I can't help but think about Alex Nedeljovic and all the success he has had in the AHL and still can't make it to the big club.  If I have to wait 3 or 4 years for Askarov to make it I am not sure it would be worth it.   Let someone else mature him and then trade for him ?  (Just kidding)   I think we have more needs at the center position and moving Jordan Staal would not hurt my feelings one bit.   He missed his calling and should be playing defence.  Our 1 scoring line is not going to get us very far.   We need a few more players that can score vs. a goalie.   Oh and while I'm at it.......please move Gardiner.  O.K.  there's my diatribe for the day.  

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1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

Jordan Staal is  a  defensive forward ,  he is literally like  having a 3rd defense man  that can so happen to win face offs .   he is responsible  defensively at his age  still .   

I understand that totally.   But in all due respects we don't need a defensive forward.   What we need is an offensive forward....you know someone who can score goals.  My personal opinion is so what.   Face Offs don't win games. 

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1 hour ago, snuffy72 said:

  Face Offs don't win games. 

You would be surprised how often they do .  Thing is the  canes just dont use  any set plays on faceoffs  often .    They have them ,  every nhl team has them  but   being effective on them   they are not at that level yet .     That should change in a few years . 

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Jordan Staal is not really a draft topic, but since we're here....

 

His value as a possession and defensive center is unquestionably still present. However, in a cap world there is a concept of price/point or price/goal. Basically, in years past the teams that get value tend to be the playoff teams. Staal is a guy you want on your team, but arguably not at what he's being paid. Defensive forwards don't get paid like offensive forwards. 

 

Staal's productivity has dropped off a cliff for two seasons now, and is heading even more down. Prior to the last two seasons, Staal was pretty steadily around 19 goals and 47 points. This was still arguably too little for his pay, but his possession, hits, and defense along with his value as a teammate was good enough. It is actually top end 3C just based on offensive numbers. However, J.'s $6M/year is more than Teuvo gets, who BTW in addition to being around a ppg is also +50 the last two years to Staal's +9. But at least at close to 50 points he's an expensive but top 3C. 

 

But the last two seasons, Jordan's numbers have plummeted. Last year Warren Foegele put up more points and more goals in the same number of games for 8X less money. Staal's numbers the past two seasons project to around 13 goals and 24 points over 80 games. Playoffs you ask? 0 points in 8 games this time. (In fairness, last year he had 10 points in 15 playoff games). And after a very bad 2018-19, but a nice playoffs, one would have hoped he'd come roaring back last year. Unfortunately he fell off even more. Last regular season he projected to 9 goals and 22 points over an 80 game season. 9 goals and 22 points, for $6M. 

 

This is a problem. This is our captain too. We watched another Staal fade here too. That guy found his mojo again in Minnesota, but would he have if he had stayed here? Jordan is 32. 

 

Brind'Amour defends Staal to the end of the Earth. Like a brother almost. (See what I did there?). But paying a guy $6M/year to put in 9 goals and 22 points or less? Even with strong defense and winning around 5 more face-offs per 100 face-offs, does not make up for that. 

 

No one is going to take that contract though. So we have little choice but to hope he can at least get back to 45 point Jordan. But two years running and one playoffs...not so much yet. 

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Cap Friendly has a list you can generate of $/point for each player and a ranking. One can set it for only forwards. It is not perfect in the sense that it assumes everyone plays 82 games. This makes sense from a cost point of view since players keep getting paid even when they are injured, but it skews the numbers in terms of on-ice performance/$. The very worst guys are role players who had long injuries or are role players on 4th lines who put up like 2-4 points. 

 

It is very hard to pull out the injured players since they are all listed as 82 games played. Looking at total shots gives an estimate, but one has to go through the whole list to know for sure how many were out a long time. Anyways, there are probably around 590 forwards to consider that were not out a long time or not 4th liners. Jordan has been #573 and #445 in $/point. Last year: $268K/point, $904K/goal. 2 years ago:  $361K/point, $895K/goal. 

 

This is not the worst in the NHL, there are at least 30-40 worse, just a guess, but it's been over two years, so I'm guessing that over two years, while still not the worst is very much on the wrong side of the scale. 

 

Nino, who only makes $800K less than Jordo, was #397 and 251 (573/445 for Staal). Just to put that in perspective. 

 

The good news is that, as a team, at least at forward, we are generally doing well on this stat. Outliers like rookie years, and prolonged injuries taken out, really almost everyone outside of Nino and Staal are on the right side of the median. Before his big contract, Aho was #12, and even after he was #281, just over the median. 

 

It's worth pointing out that it is well known that the cost/point goes up as players move into star and higher elite categories. You end up paying the stars, but since they drive offense, often when no one else is, they are worth more in $/point. So Aho at #281 is very reasonable. Now TT at #60 is a huge deal for us as was Svech at #80 and Necas at #40 due to their entry deals (which brings me back to the importance of having some guys on entry deals who produce), and Svech and Necas did that in spades. 

 

Interesting other Canes: Foegele was 107 two years ago, and NUMBER 9 last year. That is, based on pay and points, Foegele was #9 out of a total of over 650 NHL forwards in terms of value. Nino went from about 250 to about 400 over the past two seasons. 

 

Interesting Ex Canes. How about Skinner's new deal. Dropped him to #591. Rask still makes Nino look good: Rask #601. Zykov was near the bottom of the list two years running. 

 

Anyways, as we will have to pay Svech, he will move up, hopefully staying around Aho in value. This is still good value for superstars, and TT is a steal. But then Necas is going to have to be paid too. At that point, if Staal is still costing $900K/goal, at $6M/year, he and Nino are going to be a problem, if not sooner. 

 

One can only hope they both find a resurgence to at least average levels whenever this next year starts. If not, it is an issue. 

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OK it relates to draft talk because new draftees can come in and contribute on entry deals. Yes, a bit of a stretch.

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17 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

Askarov got shutout in KHL. If he manages to play considerable minutes in KHL it may make his path to NHL shorter.

33  saves in that shut out also  for a 18 year old playing in the 2nd best league in the world .   Can October not come soon enough and the Carolina Hurricanes  Draft Askarov already ?    the wait is agonizing ! 

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13 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

33  saves in that shut out also  for a 18 year old playing in the 2nd best league in the world .   Can October not come soon enough and the Carolina Hurricanes  Draft Askarov already ?    the wait is agonizing ! 

However, the more he shows of this, the more those few teams drafting ahead of us and sitting on the fence of taking a goalie in the 1st round, will be likewise encouraged to pull the trigger? I realize BPA is the mantra but boy we could use a goalie phenom in the pipelines.

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8 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

However, the more he shows of this, the more those few teams drafting ahead of us and sitting on the fence of taking a goalie in the 1st round, will be likewise encouraged to pull the trigger? I realize BPA is the mantra but boy we could use a goalie phenom in the pipelines.

The list of teams that might go after Askarov are ,   The wings , The Sens , The predators  and the Wild .   or The Devils 

However  in doing so  by ranking some players could moved down  as a result  allowing Carolina to pick up someone possibly really good . 

here is how i lay it out 

 

I think Byfield being a raw  but talented player  could slide this year .

1. NYR  goes after Laffy 

2. La  could go after Stutzle 

3. Sens   wants  Rossi 

4. Wings  either want   Drysdale , Perfetti or Askarov 

5. Sens want Either   Perfetti or Askarov  Raymond 

6. Ducks will want  Perfetti or Raymond  or Holtz

7. Devils  could go after  Holtz , Lundell  or Askarov if he is still there 

8. Sabres would love to go after Byfield  if he is still there , if not then they would go after  either Lundell  , or Quinn 

9. Wild  would go after  Lundell or Quinn or Halloway  or Askarov is still there 

10. Jets  would go after Quinn ,  Halloway or Gunler or Sanderson  

11. Preds   would go after Sanderson , or  Zary  or Askarov 

12.  Panthers  need help on defense  so they would need Barron  or Schenider . 

That  leave us  at 13th .   Given the Trickle down effect if  the teams i mentioned were to go for Askarov  , it would then Trickle down to who the Canes could possibly pick up .

 

 

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Byfield has the potential to a be a franchise center.  He doesn’t make it past 4. 
 

0% chance he makes if past Buffalo or Minnesota if the other 0% chance event happens.

Edited by gocanes0506

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42 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

Byfield has the potential to a be a franchise center.  He doesn’t make it past 4. 
 

0% chance he makes if past Buffalo or Minnesota if the other 0% chance event happens.

I just cant see  Yzerman picking Byfield .   I could rethink things and maybe he   could be picked by the Ducks  now thinking about it . 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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2 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

I just cant see  Yzerman picking Byfield .   I could rethink things and maybe he   could be picked by the Ducks  now thinking about it . 

I can’t see Ottawa not picking him. Byfield and a defender would be a haul

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

I can’t see Ottawa not picking him. Byfield and a defender would be a haul

The thing is with Byfield is  he is extremely  Raw for a player ,  Talented   but  Raw  and  he would need another year or 2  developing .  Rossi  is ready now .   Now if the sens are patient   about developing their talent then  okay that might happen  but  given  who their owner is   i seriously doubt it .    

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4 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

The thing is with Byfield is  he is extremely  Raw for a player ,  Talented   but  Raw  and  he would need another year or 2  developing .  Rossi  is ready now .   Now if the sens are patient   about developing their talent then  okay that might happen  but  given  who their owner is   i seriously doubt it .    

Where are you getting he needs 1-2 more years from? All the stuff I’ve read on him says he is ready to play this season.  On top of that, what 18 year isn’t “raw?”

 

ottawa could fill a decent roster tomorrow if they re-signed their RFAs. Even then, Byfield would be better than their centers.

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I think it is indeed possible that just about any team in the top 3-11 outside of maybe Florida and probably Winnipeg could take Askarov. My own belief is that it is a lot less likely at the top though because of the caliber of skaters available, him going in the top 8 would  surprise me though. In terms of us getting him, I'll be holding my breath starting at Buffalo, and even more at Minnesota. Buffalo though, would likely have to pass on a very high caliber forward. They have so many needs, I think that will be too hard to pass up. A lot of mock drafts have Minnesota on Lundell, and few have them going Askarov. But Lundell is probably the first top tier guy that there is enough disagreement on that I'd be more nervous there. Jets are pretty set at goal. Preds? Yes I'd be nervous again at their pick, but Saros is pretty good, and there will still be either Quinn, Mercer or a forward who dropped. If he fall past the Preds we will get to pick him if we want. Florida has about a zero chance of pickign him. 

 

If Byfield makes it to #3 that would be a shocker. 

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48 players under the circumstances, they have players that normally wouldn't be there because other leagues are still shut down.

My Great Nephew is at this camp and is signed by the team but still has to earn a spot on D. Most of the Bombers D from last year are moving on so they will have a young D this year. The Flin Flon Bombers are a historically storied team 

 

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On 9/18/2020 at 7:16 PM, Canesfanforever said:

The thing is with Byfield is  he is extremely  Raw for a player ,  Talented   but  Raw  and  he would need another year or 2  developing .  Rossi  is ready now .   Now if the sens are patient   about developing their talent then  okay that might happen  but  given  who their owner is   i seriously doubt it .    

 

What are you seeing and reading to come to that conclusion?  A year or two, when everything I've seen is he is ready to play. 

 

Yeah, if he makes it to 3, wow.

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1 hour ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

What are you seeing and reading to come to that conclusion?  A year or two, when everything I've seen is he is ready to play. 

 

Yeah, if he makes it to 3, wow.

His creativity on plays  are what I see holding him back .     He can at his size  bull doze  and skate like the wind   against youth players  but see if that same pony trick would work in the nhl   and it would fall flat on it's face .    His  skill sets  to develop plays on  the fly are going to be  what helps him  out in the nhl  and he is too young at the moment to play in  the ahl  to develop those much needed  skill sets .    What might  work in a small pond  wont work in   the nhl .    Byfield   could benefit  from  learning that  and it would  be  good for his growth .     Players like him  are very much psychically  capable of  playing in the nhl   , it's mentally   where he needs that extra  development for that taxing labor  of a 82 game season   .     Id love  to see him get that  so he can have a fruitful  career .  

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KHL best players of the week by position last week included:

 

— Best goalie was Yaroslav Askarov (SKA), who won two of three games last week, including one away shutout. He faced a total of 78 shots (or 26 per night), with a saves percentage of 97.44%. Askarov had a goals-against average of 0.74. His shutout against Spartak on Sep. 17 was his first in the KHL.

 

 

The KHL is no joke. Kochetkov has struggled there. Goalies who rock there lately have been really good in the NHL too. 

 

Save % .974. I don't want to judge on 3 games, and he plays on a juggernaut team, but if he ends up being a top KHL goalie this year, in his teens, he will be NHL ready at the very near end of the curve most likely. 

 

Further, if he keeps this up before the draft, it could draw interest from teams above us who might have been leaning away.

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The Athletic just did a mock draft where they have the beat writers for each team make the picks. IMO this is the closest thing to what actually happens, as those people are all dialed in on their team in a way that even the best overall mock drafters are not. For instance, on the pathetic end of the scale, there are mock drafts on youtube and on the web that actually put a pick in for Toronto in our spot discussing their needs and who they'll pick at 13. These are recent mocks too, not pre-playoffs. There is another that says on our first rounder: "I really think Carolina goes for a D man here". Um. You are disqualified for embarrassingly egregious vacuum of even the pretense of any knowledge of how a team is likely to pick.

 

But the beat writer for each team is as dialed in as anyone not at the actual draft table. Of course it won't play out the exact way of the mock, but IMO it is the closest best guess of everything out there. And here it is: https://theathletic.com/2072618/2020/09/21/nhl-staff-mock-draft-2020-changes-in-the-top-three-plus-an-audit-by-nhl-scouts/?source=dailyemail

 

Our pick only, is made by Sara Civian:

 

13. Carolina: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-VHL

Sara Civian: Of course it’s always a risk going with a goalie in the first round, but the Hurricanes might have a steal at a position they like to keep homegrown here in Askarov. Thinking ahead, you’d imagine they will either keep Petr Mrazek on an extension or trade for a high-end goalie on a short contract, then either sign said goalie to another short contract or let him walk. Considering Alex Nedeljkovic hasn’t yet panned out as an NHL goalie, I could see the Canes taking a chance on “the machine,” should he drop this far. They showed in the 2019 draft they aren’t afraid to go for high-ceiling potential over security, and they aren’t afraid to draft goalies with high picks.

 

As a guy who still favors picking Askarov, I'm encouraged by not only Sara's pick, as she may have some pulse of inside knowledge, though probably not, but also that the beat writers making the picks for their teams ahead of us all went for skaters. Yes, I take some issue with her line that the Canes have shown in 2019 "that they aren't afraid to go after goalies with high picks". There is a big difference between pick #13 and pick #36, after already picking in the first round. But the idea that they aren't afraid, in general, to go for high skill with downside risk, is valid.

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Not good news .    Ska  St.  Petersberg  in the khl ,   the team that Askarov is playing with .   Recently  there was a covid outbreak  of 10 players   infected with the virus . 

 

They have had to call up their jr.  team  to come in to play some  games .   Im praying   this virus did not infect  Askarov .

 

 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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