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59 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

We have his rights to trade until the day of UFA.  Philly traded a 1st for the rights of 2 soon to be UFAs 10 years ago, I think. Its like a sign and trade type thing.

Team that do that want  time to negotiate  with the player before they hit the market  and  in some cases  feel like  they are wanted  by that team if traded .    Think of it this way .   When  some players  gets traded  they tend to take it as if they were fired  by that team even though it is just business .    And if the team approaching that  player  was willing to sacrifice   something for that player   they might take it as  a showing of good faith  for them .    And then end up  signing with the team  that wanted him .  In phillys case  it was most certainly  taken that way  .    

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My memory is that trading for the rights to a soon to be UFA tends to be for high end guys, and tends to involve moving lower picks. The Darling move was for a third rounder, in a year we ended up with 2 third rounders even after that (Selio Mattheos and one Morgan Geekie). Thing about the Darling move is that it could have been pure genius. If Darling hadn't turned out to be Mongo. This is what causes me to :bangHead: when it comes to goalies. Darling had posted really good numbers in the actual NHL including playoff success. He was that big goalie that people wanted. And the move did allow us to sign him. Had Darling turned out to be all he seemed to be that trading of one third rounder for our future #1 would have been right up there with stealing Teravainen from the same Blackhawks. 

 

Alas, goalies and the Canes has been a mixed match at best, and Mongo arrived and it's all a bad dream now. 

 

Anyways, it's hard to see our UFA's having much pre UFA value. And even if they did, we'd have to give them up before the playoffs, assuming that happens. So a 6th rounder for the rights to try to lure Edmundson or TVR pre UFA? Hard to even see that, but if we did we wouldn't have them for our playoffs. 

 

IMO the only draft day trades possible will be moves up and down for gaggles of lower picks or prospects. And TBH, the way this draft is laying out, the only thing I could see driving that would be a team higher up that wants a D man. This thing is so loaded with forwards, that if you are drafting say 8-14, and you want a D man, you've seen Drysdale go already, you might be willing to move down for more picks since opinions diverge quickly on D men and the forwards stay pretty enticing all the way down to 20 or further.

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Well it is looking less and less likely that there will actually be a draft in early June. Maybe the draft lottery, but less likely the draft itself. Seems that over half of the team's GM's don't want it, though that is not official. Also, its just over 2 weeks away with no announcement yet. I guess we could hear in the next few days that it's on, but speculation is that it's off. 

 

This would likely change everything including probably our draft position, up or down.

 

Best I can tell we could move up or down from our current #19 (most likely if we draft early June). The good news is that we have the best of ours or Toronto's pick. So, in theory, if everything broke exactly right, we could win the Cup and pick #12 overall. This is massive speculation on how they set up the playoffs and the resulting draft positions. But if they give byes to the top 2 teams in each division and then assign top picks to the first round losers by inverse of points percentage, it would be possible. So long as Toronto (or we) goes out in the first round we should pick at least 15. 

 

If we both win, then we just keep dropping down until one of us loses, which is too complex to try to estimate. Very possible that if one or both of us go out in round 2 we end up close to #19 where we'd be if they do it in early June.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

Well it is looking less and less likely that there will actually be a draft in early June. Maybe the draft lottery, but less likely the draft itself. Seems that over half of the team's GM's don't want it, though that is not official. Also, its just over 2 weeks away with no announcement yet. I guess we could hear in the next few days that it's on, but speculation is that it's off. 

 

This would likely change everything including probably our draft position, up or down.

 

Best I can tell we could move up or down. The good news is that we'd have ours and Toronto's pick. So, in theory, if everything broke exactly right, we could win the Cup and pick #12 overall. This is massive speculation on how they set up the playoffs and the resulting draft positions. But if they give byes to the top 2 teams in each division and then assign top picks to the first round losers by inverse of points percentage, it would be possible. So long as Toronto (or we) goes out in the first round we should pick at least 15. 

 

If we both win, then we just keep dropping down until one of us loses, which is too complex to try to estimate. Very possible that if one or both of us go out in round 2 we end up close to #19 where we'd be if they do it in early June.

 

I'm assuming you mean we'd have the better of ours OR Toronto's pick?  The worse of the two is still going to the Rangers, no? 

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I'm assuming you mean we'd have the better of ours OR Toronto's pick?  The worse of the two is still going to the Rangers, no? 

Yes. the better of the two for us, the other to the Rangers.

 

This leaves a very nice possibility of us going deep while Toronto bows out early, and getting both a nice playoff run and the better pick.

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3 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

This is not going to be a strong year for the canes  in the draft .    It's a safe bet they wont be trading down like last year . 

What does this mean?

 

There is a very good chance we trade down 

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4 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

This is not going to be a strong year for the canes  in the draft .    It's a safe bet they wont be trading down like last year . 

As gocanes points out, and mindful of many postings on eligible players several of you have taken time to research which I've appreciated, I nevertheless believe that aside from the apparent consensus #1-#3, I think this year will be the biggest "crap shoot" ever due to the interruption of the normal methods utilized in the lead up to the draft to evaluate these players, secondary to COVID-19 restraints? Further, to me, I'd not bet on anything being off the table with about 28 of the teams. A corollary to this thought, THIS DRAFT is where scouts of every team will more than earn their money.

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2 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

What does this mean?

 

There is a very good chance we trade down 

Depending on where the canes are picking   Everything pass the 20th overall  is not eye catching  in terms of normal progression .    The very best  seems to me  to be all in the top 15   and  after that it's a huge  drop off in talent .   So  2nd round , 3rd rounds , and going forward  will most likely  make up for   sphl or euro or aussie league potential .  

It's how im measuring it .    I'd  hoped   there would be a deep pool  but  it's  not .    It happens  some times  ,  where  some years are better  in talent than others .   That's what im saying here  guys .  

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I've heard that the pool goes at least into the early second round. In my own research there are likely to be high upside picks available all the way down into the early twenties, and high upside higher risk into the upper second round. It really does come down to scouting and frankly luck. 

 

I stopped posting potential first round picks here since the draft ended up not being now, and because, given the way they are doing the draft order we could literally pick just about anywhere or not at all, and we no longer "know" we're picking #19. 

 

I will say that I'm happy with the way they are doing it. If we get bounced in the first round, it will be arguably unfair since we had a better than 50-50 chance of making the playoffs pre covid. At least our pick has a good chance of going higher. If both we and Toronto go deep (if I have it right, we could face off in the ECF, which would push our pick to down to the bottom around #28-29). 

 

But also, we have a chance at a rare, but beautiful thing in drafting: both going deep and picking "high". OK, we can't get a lottery pick this year, but we can pick as high as #12 and win the cup. Yes, that would require Pittsburgh, NYI, Edmonton, and Toronto to all lose, oh, and we would need to win the cup. So, yeah, not likely. But you're saying there's a chance!

 

Really, IMO the most important thing that could happen would be for Toronto to lose in the play in round. True, if Toronto wins the lottery we'd be without a pick this year, and their pick next year not likely to be great, but it's a long shot at a top 3 pick, with a much bigger chance that we'd pick from #12 to #15, which is substantially higher than where we were likely to pick before this system. Yes, theoretically we could lose and win the lottery, which would be the best thing short of winning the cup, but the odds are slim.

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6 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Depending on where the canes are picking   Everything pass the 20th overall  is not eye catching  in terms of normal progression .    The very best  seems to me  to be all in the top 15   and  after that it's a huge  drop off in talent .   So  2nd round , 3rd rounds , and going forward  will most likely  make up for   sphl or euro or aussie league potential .  

It's how im measuring it .    I'd  hoped   there would be a deep pool  but  it's  not .    It happens  some times  ,  where  some years are better  in talent than others .   That's what im saying here  guys .  

That is typical of any draft. At the same time guys from 18-40 are all over the place for rankings. Then 40-70 gets even wilder.  Teams are going to have their favorite that they are willing to move up for. In typical cases when a team in front of them wants them too.  I can easily see us sliding back in the 2nd round to get another one or more next season.  Picks are going to be our bartering chip with Francis and Seattle next season.

 

Neighbors I have seen as high as 21 but as low as 37.  
Lapierre is anywhere from 13th to 33rd. Granted his is injury related.

 

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Finally watched some film on Alexis Lafreniere. Holy Cow. OK winning the lottery is a huge long shot, but....holy cow. 

 

That guy is off the hook. I'd buy season tickets on a 10 year plan. Dang. I'd pay just to watch him play.

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Yes, it will be on NBCSN at 8 pm.  It could work out quite well for the Canes if they would lose to the Rangers.  There's a chance for 1st overall.

 

Team odds

Since not every team played the same number of games, they have been ranked by points percentage at the time of the March NHL pause.

1. Red Wings – 18.5%
2. Senators – 13.5%
3. Senators – 11.5%*
4. Kings – 9.5%
5. Ducks – 8.5%
6. Devils – 7.5%
7. Sabres – 6.5%
==================
8. Team A – 6%
9. Team B – 5%
10. Team C – 3.5%
11. Team D – 3%
12. Team E – 2.5%
13. Team F – 2%
14. Team G – 1.5%
15. Team H – 1%

*Originally owned by San Jose

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9 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

Yes, it will be on NBCSN at 8 pm.  It could work out quite well for the Canes if they would lose to the Rangers.  There's a chance for 1st overall.

 

Team odds

Since not every team played the same number of games, they have been ranked by points percentage at the time of the March NHL pause.

1. Red Wings – 18.5%
2. Senators – 13.5%
3. Senators – 11.5%*
4. Kings – 9.5%
5. Ducks – 8.5%
6. Devils – 7.5%
7. Sabres – 6.5%
==================
8. Team A – 6%
9. Team B – 5%
10. Team C – 3.5%
11. Team D – 3%
12. Team E – 2.5%
13. Team F – 2%
14. Team G – 1.5%
15. Team H – 1%

*Originally owned by San Jose

 

If I read things correctly, there's a 24.5% chance that one of the "placeholder" (play-in) teams wins the 1st overall pick. Given that the 8 play-in losers will have an equal chance of getting that pick in the second phase of the lottery, assuming a loss to the Rangers would put our chances at the 1st overall at 3%. 

 

If the "placeholder pool" wins the 1st overall tomorrow, each of the 8 play-in losers will have a 12.5% chance at the 1st. I could see that as presenting somewhat of a dilemma for fans of teams like Montreal and Chicago.  If you know you have almost no realistic shot at winning the Cup (you're not a good team to start, and reseeding would put you up against the best team remaining in each round), do you root for your team to win a series or two and lose a chance at the 1st pick, or root for a play-in loss and a 1 in 8 chance of landing Lafreniere, a potential superstar who might well help turn your franchise around? 

Edited by LakeLivin

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Things I am hoping for:

 

1. No play-in placeholder wins the lottery.

2. Devils do not win the lottery (seriously the Metro needs to stop winning)

3. Senators dont go 1-2.

4. Sabres dont win cuz they are the Sabres.

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

 

If the "placeholder pool" wins the 1st overall tomorrow, each of the 8 play-in losers will have a 12.5% chance at the 1st. 

I'm a bit confused by this. The way I'm reading the odds above the placeholders are listed with different overall odds. This would not be true if all the placeholders get an equal shot at the win. It looks like there is some seeding still, presumably by points percentage ranking after the play in round determines the who the losers are.

 

If a placeholder wins one or more spot, then the placeholder teams lose in round one. How, specifically to they determine which placeholder team gets the pick?

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31 minutes ago, remkin said:

I'm a bit confused by this. The way I'm reading the odds above the placeholders are listed with different overall odds. This would not be true if all the placeholders get an equal shot at the win. It looks like there is some seeding still, presumably by points percentage ranking after the play in round determines the who the losers are.

 

If a placeholder wins one or more spot, then the placeholder teams lose in round one. How, specifically to they determine which placeholder team gets the pick?

The lottery will occur as it normally does with percentages of teams from 1-15 as listed.
 

If a placeholder team is in the top 3, the odds are reset. Every team that loses in the play-in round (8) and any team that didn’t win the lottery (6) will have an equal 7% chance of winning the pick.
 

its ludicrous 

Edited by gocanes0506

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33 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

The lottery will occur as it normally does with percentages of teams from 1-15 as listed.
 

If a placeholder team is in the top 3, the odds are reset. Every team that loses in the play-in round (8) and any team that didn’t win the lottery (6) will have an equal 7% chance of winning the pick.
 

its ludicrous 

Is it just the #1 pick that is raffled, or the top 3 like recent years?

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

I'm a bit confused by this. The way I'm reading the odds above the placeholders are listed with different overall odds. This would not be true if all the placeholders get an equal shot at the win. It looks like there is some seeding still, presumably by points percentage ranking after the play in round determines the who the losers are.

 

If a placeholder wins one or more spot, then the placeholder teams lose in round one. How, specifically to they determine which placeholder team gets the pick?

 

1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

The lottery will occur as it normally does with percentages of teams from 1-15 as listed.
 

If a placeholder team is in the top 3, the odds are reset. Every team that loses in the play-in round (8) and any team that didn’t win the lottery (6) will have an equal 7% chance of winning the pick.
 

its ludicrous 

 

1 hour ago, remkin said:

Is it just the #1 pick that is raffled, or the top 3 like recent years?

 

Each of the first 3 picks are raffled, and I think that's the reason they need to differentiate the odds among the placeholder teams rather than just consider it as one pool. After each draw they adjust subsequent draws, so the adjustment would be different if placeholder A won than it would be if placeholder H won.  But if a placeholder does win one of the 3 lottery picks in phase 1 of the lottery, all of the play-in losers (and only the play-in losers) will have the same 12.5% chance of getting that pick when they do phase 2 of the lottery (which is why I refer to it as the "placeholder pool").

 

From NHL.com:

"If a team not in the bottom seven wins any of the first three drawings, a Second Phase will be conducted among the eight teams eliminated in the qualifiers.

 

edit: if a placeholder wins one of the lotteries, it will be interesting to see if they announce which placeholder it is?  I suspect not.

Edited by LakeLivin

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16 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

 

 

Each of the first 3 picks are raffled, and I think that's the reason they need to differentiate the odds among the placeholder teams rather than just consider it as one pool. After each draw they adjust subsequent draws, so the adjustment would be different if placeholder A won than it would be if placeholder H won.  But if a placeholder does win one of the 3 lottery picks in phase 1 of the lottery, all of the play-in losers (and only the play-in losers) will have the same 12.5% chance of getting that pick when they do phase 2 of the lottery (which is why I refer to it as the "placeholder pool").

 

From NHL.com:

"If a team not in the bottom seven wins any of the first three drawings, a Second Phase will be conducted among the eight teams eliminated in the qualifiers.

ok i thought they were throwing the non winners back into pot with the placeholders. Either way.  No placeholder picks because it would be a very Canes thing for us to make a trade with insufficient protection and then give up a high pick / not have a pick at all.  If no placeholders win, I am more confident against the Rangers.  If one or two placeholders are in the top 3 picks, I have little doubt Toronto and/or the Canes lose.

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13 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

ok i thought they were throwing the non winners back into pot with the placeholders. Either way.  No placeholder picks because it would be a very Canes thing for us to make a trade with insufficient protection and then give up a high pick / not have a pick at all.  If no placeholders win, I am more confident against the Rangers.  If one or two placeholders are in the top 3 picks, I have little doubt Toronto and/or the Canes lose.

 

I dunno; if we do lose to the Rags, I kind of like at least having a chance at winning a top 3 spot in the lottery. Seems like odds are pretty slim of Toronto dropping into a top 10 pick so we'll likely get to keep their first. For the Canes to have to defer, Leafs would pretty much have to lose their play-in and win one of the lotteries (on top of the 7 non-qualifying teams,11 play-in teams have a worse points % than the Leafs). Of course, our odds of winning a lottery spot are even slimmer. But even if we didn't win 1st, can you imagine adding Byfield or Stutzle to the Canes young core? The thought has me salivating; oops, just got a little bit of drool on my keyboard. :P     

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I've read with increasing confusion all the speculation and numbers crunching that I've admired from you guys who do this. The one simple question I have, as all your percentages seem related to playoffs, BUT what If these playoffs ultimately ARE CANCELLED? How would that play out? I just have a very bad feeling with the way things are going, particularly in this state, that we might be headed in that direction?

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13 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

If I read things correctly, there's a 24.5% chance that one of the "placeholder" (play-in) teams wins the 1st overall pick. Given that the 8 play-in losers will have an equal chance of getting that pick in the second phase of the lottery, assuming a loss to the Rangers would put our chances at the 1st overall at 3%. 

 

If the "placeholder pool" wins the 1st overall tomorrow, each of the 8 play-in losers will have a 12.5% chance at the 1st. I could see that as presenting somewhat of a dilemma for fans of teams like Montreal and Chicago.  If you know you have almost no realistic shot at winning the Cup (you're not a good team to start, and reseeding would put you up against the best team remaining in each round), do you root for your team to win a series or two and lose a chance at the 1st pick, or root for a play-in loss and a 1 in 8 chance of landing Lafreniere, a potential superstar who might well help turn your franchise around? 

Well, if the 3 drawings for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd draft positions fall in the 24.5% range then Detroit would draft 4th, Ottawa 5th and 6th .. all the way up to

Buffalo at 10th.  Then - and this is where it gets interesting - when the qualifiers are played ... and let's say the Canes lose to the Rangers.  The Canes

would have a 12.5% chance at the 1st overall pick (Lafreniere).  Of course, the other 7 losers from the qualifying round also have a 12.5% chance.

 

Still, it's intriguing.  Lose to the Rangers and you have about as good a chance at #1 as San Jose would have had.

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