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remkin

NHL Draft 2020

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Absolutely stupid that any of the top 10 teams even have a chance at the number one overall.

 

Play-in losers win battle for the 1st overall.  Dang NHL doing this on purpose.

 

one positive there was only one play in loser in the top 3. So we didn’t give up a top 3 pick for Skjei 

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Amazing. The #1 pick overall, and the insanely talented LaFreniere, goes to a placeholder, possibly even us. Pretty weird yet entertaining. 

 

Don't feel too bad for the Kings or Ottawa though. Stuetzle is going to be amazing, and Byfield too. I like Rossi who probably goes #4, but things diverge a  bit at #4. The top three is pretty close to can't miss IMO.

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If we and Toronto go out in round one, we'd have a 12.5% chance of picking #1 overall, a 12. 5% chance of no pick, and 75% chance of picking 12-14. 

 

If we go out and Toronto wins, we have a 12.5% chance of picking first, a 87.5% chance of picking 14 or 15.

 

If we win and Toronto goes out, we have have a 12.5% chance of no pick and a 87.5% chance of picking 12-16.

 

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I'm happy that a non bottom-10 team will win the 1st overall pick because I think the whole process creates a buzz for people who aren't

particularly interested in hockey.  It's good for the game.  And it teaches teams not to tank .. until you get to a play-in round.  Then it's OK :)

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So the best case scenario short of winning the cup is for us to go out in the first round and win the lottery. OK, fine, but that's just not fun to think about because first we have to lose, then wait, then defy the odds in a very unlikely way. 

 

So, the next best scenario is for Toronto to lose, and we go deep. Unfortunately we still have to wait and hope that Toronto doesn't defy the odds and win the lottery, but just the idea of a deep playoff run and still getting to pick as high as #12 is pretty unusual too. Never would have thought that Toronto pick (or ours) could be that high. 

 

#12 is actually pretty unlikely, but interesting in that it is possible that Askarov might be there or in a position to trade up for. While some analysts have him going in the top 10, that's less likely due to the skill level available at forward in the top 10 and the risk and time to fruition of drafting goalies. But at #12 or even 13 or 14, it can make sense. The opinions on skaters diverges a bit at #4/5 and again at around #9/10. Meaning that as you get down to #12/13, there are still very good forwards, it's less clear which one, and that makes the idea of taking the only premier goalie in this draft more palatable. But especially for a franchise that has never really had a long stretch of a premier goalie. 

 

Boomer Gordon on NHL on XM is against taking goalies in the first round because "you can just go get a good one" out there. In theory you can. I mean Lack's numbers were dang good, as were Mongo's....Mrazek's been OK, Reimer....no, if we get a shot at Askarov? PULL!!!

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13 minutes ago, remkin said:

Oh, and if play doesn't resume we pick #19 and have no shot at the lottery win.

So, by your reasoning rem, we need to urge for playing? I am torn about this to be honest, but I would love to see some type of hockey, so I am ambivalent.

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16 hours ago, spyglass88 said:

Lose to the Rangers and we could get the #1 pick.

 

We need the cup. Help boost up the economy everyone will support the team. I don't want to lose to the Rangers twice in 2020 when this been the worse year ever.

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3 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

So, by your reasoning rem, we need to urge for playing? I am torn about this to be honest, but I would love to see some type of hockey, so I am ambivalent.

I guess you could look at it that if we lose to Toronto in the ECF we'd pick #28 or 29, but yes, as far as the draft goes, we have a pretty good chance of a better pick if we play, and we have that elusive, but possible chance of winning the cup and picking #12. 

 

But I've been in favor of play forever and remain so. I've predicted that they would play since very early and stand by that prediction. 

 

These guys will all start out in a disease-free bubble, get tested daily as well as knowing everyone around them has been tested daily, then they will stay in a bubble, take all sorts of precautions within the bubble in case a tiny bit of covid creeps in, and are mostly 35 and under trained athletes with a risk that is less than flu for them. I get the societal fears about being out there in general, but when it comes to this situation?....

 

TBH these guys probably have MORE risk if they don't play. Because then they'll be out doing other stuff where they are more likely to get it. They guys who have tested positive so far were NOT playing in the bubble. In fact, if the season is just canceled a lot of these guys will have lots of people over, eventually go out to bars, protests etc. If you could compare X # of players playing in this bubble with X # not in the bubble, I bet there's more covid cases in the 'not' group.

 

Actually we might get to see that. As teams are eliminated, and the 7 teams already out go about their business we can compare positives. Just depends on if positive guys not playing will be reported. They might not become public knowledge.

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So , in the case that  it's toronto's or  carolinas  pick   given out of happenstance ?   then the pick would be protected regardless .   so the rangers would not get either one winning pick    until next year  .   So the end result is if  it was the toronto pick   then  that would go to toronto but carolinas pick would go to the rangers ?

 

This is why i dont like trading that 1st for Brady more and more  !

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12 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

So , in the case that  it's toronto's or  carolinas  pick   given out of happenstance ?   then the pick would be protected regardless .   so the rangers would not get either one winning pick    until next year  .   So the end result is if  it was the toronto pick   then  that would go to toronto but carolinas pick would go to the rangers ?

 

This is why i dont like trading that 1st for Brady more and more  !

I want Toronto to lose and we get the pick. The Canes make it at least one round win, preferably at least two. Build up the confidence of this young team and push them to consistent success. Also it will good for the fan base to make a good playoff appearance.

 

Laf would be great but we need sustained success for the fans.

Edited by gocanes0506

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16 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

I want Toronto to lose and we get the pick. The Canes make it at least one round win, preferably at least two. Build up the confidence of this young team and push them to consistent success. Also it will good for the fan base to make a good playoff appearance.

 

Laf would be great but we need sustained success for the fans.

Oh Dude ,  I would suggest  if the canes did win the pick to just use it on Askarov .   That would set up the canes for  a  good long decade and solve the goalie issues  going  forward .  Adding  Lafy  would be sick  and having Brind'Amour possibly  mold  him  into a center would be killer .  But  the canes need a  stud goalie  more than  a hot   scorer . 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

Oh Dude ,  I would suggest  if the canes did win the pick to just use it on Askarov .   That would set up the canes for  a  good long decade and solve the goalie issues  going  forward .  Adding  Lafy  would be sick  and having Brind'Amour possibly  mold  him  into a center would be killer .  But  the canes need a  stud goalie  more than  a hot   scorer . 

Askarov is very good but goalies are the most risky of the 1st rounders.  If people are wary of Lapierre then Askarov should really concern.

 

It is a difficult trigger to pull.

Edited by gocanes0506

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11 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

Askarov is very good but goalies are the most risky of the 1st rounders.  If people are wary of Lapierre then Askarov should really concern.

 

It is a difficult trigger to pull.

Being honest if the canes did manage to get the 1st pick ,  Id rather take my chances with Askarov then  not do so because  what people are saying about him is  not the  "  to good to be true  "  kinda of  shindig   but more of  prospect wise  he will be a sure thing .    and  given  Carolinas history    the one area in need is  a sure thing in net .  if he turned out to be a bust then oh well   at least we didnt rob some other team  of laffy who  could be a bust for all we know   or might not .    I just think Askarov would be perfect for the canes  more so than  laffy  if  we were that  " lucky "  

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There is no doubt that LaFreniere is worth losing in the first round. But, do you feel lucky? There is still only a 1/8 chance. Highly unlikely. If that's what ends up happening we'll be dominant for a decade, especially if we can find any sort of goalie. But for it to happen we'd have to go out in the first play in round, then sit and watch the entire playoffs, then get very lucky in the new lottery. So, yes, that would be the best case (outside of winning the cup), but hard to really pull for it up front.

 

Up front the best scenario is Toronto loses and we go deep. Of course then we have to hold our breath in the lottery that Toronto doesn't win, but even if they do we'd get 2 picks next year.

 

If we end up at say #13 or #14 and Askarov is there, I'd do it. I know it's risky, but he's been projected by some as a top 6 pick, and almost all see him as a top 10 pick that might slide due to the goalie thing. I do it though because we are the Hurricanes. We are the perfect team to take this chance for a couple of reasons. 

 

1. We have never had a true legit franchise goalie. When the XM guys picked our all time line up they went with Cam Ward in goal. Cam is a great guy and has probably even moved into the underrated column, but he does not have franchise goalie numbers. He had a huge role in our cup which is priceless, and he had one legit All Star season, but the body of work is not franchise goalie. Team save percentage has a tight correlation with playoffs. Things are so much easier when you have that franchise guy back there.

 

2. We've got the skater thing pretty dialed in. Sure, we could use another stud forward. But we have 3 stud can't miss young forwards and one (Necas) who is a best bet to be one also. The other parts filling in. We have more D men than we know what to do with. We have pretty high likely NHL caliber prospects in Drury, Suzuki, Rees, Puistola, Geekie, Bean, and Keane to name just a few (Bokk and Puistola and Honka also). 

 

3. Our best hopes in the system are Ned and Kochetkov. Either could be the answer, but both have question marks. 

 

4. We need the "sure thing" because we have not had great luck assessing goalies after that. Cam was a late first rounder. No other goalie we've drafted later has worked out, as least for us. 

 

Boomer Gordon says "just go out and get a good goalie from what's out there". And many teams have done it. Not this team though. At least not that future franchise guy. Since our SC year: Reimer was good last year and McElhinney was very good for a season, but those are not franchise guys. Mrazek is good but not franchise, then Darling, Lack, Leighton, Peters, Ellis, Khudobin, Boucher, Legace, Grahame. OK Khudobin has turned out pretty good, but we didn't keep him. The others? Not really. 

 

It's still not likely that in the end the various marinations have us picking as high as 12-13, which probably means we miss, but if he's there? I go for it.

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2 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Being honest if the canes did manage to get the 1st pick ,  Id rather take my chances with Askarov then  not do so because  what people are saying about him is  not the  "  to good to be true  "  kinda of  shindig   but more of  prospect wise  he will be a sure thing .    and  given  Carolinas history    the one area in need is  a sure thing in net .  if he turned out to be a bust then oh well   at least we didnt rob some other team  of laffy who  could be a bust for all we know   or might not .    I just think Askarov would be perfect for the canes  more so than  laffy  if  we were that  " lucky "  

 

If Canes won the first pick I've gotta believe they'd take Lafreniere without a second thought.  If they want Askarov they could trade for him for less of an overpayment than Lafreniere. 

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There's no way on Earth we take Askarov with the #1 pick. Just watch some youtube on LaFreniere and look at his comparable ppg stats vs 20 years of players in his league. This guy is legit. Maybe generational is overused, but he's at least next level to that. I love Byfield and Stutzle, I mean either of them is also a game changer, but LaFreniere is next level franchise player.

 

Now at #12-14. Yes, I'd look intently at the goalie.

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

There's no way on Earth we take Askarov with the #1 pick. Just watch some youtube on LaFreniere and look at his comparable ppg stats vs 20 years of players in his league. This guy is legit. Maybe generational is overused, but he's at least next level to that. I love Byfield and Stutzle, I mean either of them is also a game changer, but LaFreniere is next level franchise player.

 

Now at #12-14. Yes, I'd look intently at the goalie.

Lafreniere   will be   an elite / franchise  player  from what  i have seen on him  ,   Which is good  no doubt  to have .   But given who the Canes already have   I  just  cant see  how  adding another firecracker in the mix  will help  in the area of scoring when  they are very well of doing that already .   Askarov  is said to be better than Spencer Knight   who will be a  elite  / franchise goalie .    Getting someone better than him ?    Seems like a  dumb idea to pass up on 

 

2 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

If Canes won the first pick I've gotta believe they'd take Lafreniere without a second thought.  If they want Askarov they could trade for him for less of an overpayment than Lafreniere. 

Trading to detroit   would the canes best  play  .    we would gladly take their 1st round pick  this year for laffy   and  a 2nd round pick  if they were willing to pay for it .   we would then  get  Askarov  and  get  Tim Stutzle ? or  Marco Rossi ?   omg   wins  !

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1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

Lafreniere   will be   an elite / franchise  player  from what  i have seen on him  ,   Which is good  no doubt  to have .   But given who the Canes already have   I  just  cant see  how  adding another firecracker in the mix  will help  in the area of scoring when  they are very well of doing that already .   Askarov  is said to be better than Spencer Knight   who will be a  elite  / franchise goalie .    Getting someone better than him ?    Seems like a  dumb idea to pass up on 

Picking LaFreniere would not be a dumb idea. I would go so far as to say there is next to zero chance that any team would go Askarov in the top 3 because all three guys are elite, and unlikely in the top 6. After that maybe. Most have him projected around #9-12. Some say even that's too high to risk on a goalie. Knight went #13 as one of the best thought of goalie prospects in a long time, and some thought that was too high. But LaFreniere is a notch above even the other two elite guys that will go below him.

 

LaFreniere is not only hugely skilled, but he does the little things too, the things that lead to winning; over his past 4 years including playoffs the guy's plus/minus is plus 218..  And just watching him. That's another thing. He will sell tickets. Based on what I've seen in videos, I'd pay to watch just him.

 

Anyways, if we get the chance to find out who we pick #1, that would be a good thing.

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Askarov isn’t the first pick by a mile.

 

If we get the first pick you take Laf, sell off Dzingel and Nino, and sign Lehner.

 

or

 

you get a stinking haul for number one. Target NJ or Ottawa or who ever else will give you a good package. Keep trading down until you get a pick between 7-11 and take Askarov.  Laf is so good that may not still be worth it.

Edited by gocanes0506

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Any GM who would even consider taking Askarov over LaFreniere with the #1pick should be immediately fired. Now, speaking from a Caniac perspective, I could vaguely see the attractiveness of brief consideration, a millisecond or so, due to how goalie starved our franchise has been but as we well know, goalies can wilt on the vine, and as sure fire of a success that we are led to believe that Askarov will be, unfortunately, we've been down that road before. Seems to me, putting Laffy with the firepower we've got, and we all would have to buckle up?

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