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NHL Draft 2020

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3 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Any GM who would even consider taking Askarov over LaFreniere with the #1pick should be immediately fired. Now, speaking from a Caniac perspective, I could vaguely see the attractiveness of brief consideration, a millisecond or so, due to how goalie starved our franchise has been but as we well know, goalies can wilt on the vine, and as sure fire of a success that we are led to believe that Askarov will be, unfortunately, we've been down that road before. Seems to me, putting Laffy with the firepower we've got, and we all would have to buckle up?

 

Well, that's what they said about Rick DiPietro and look at how well that #1 pick paid off for . . . uh, never mind! :P

Edited by LakeLivin

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It's Funny how   our team is not  the only one that has a fanbase drooling over the chances of getting the number 1 pick and are thinking of ways  of either taking the pick or selling it  for a boat load of  value .   It's  almost comical to  a  sense .    

 

In the likeliness that the canes will miss that opportunity  to be so fortunate  I think a better plan of attack for the draft should still be the main focus going forward .   It's  nice to think of what if's   or what about's   for entertainment purposes  but reality is  for the canes case lightning does not strike twice .  

 

With that being said   I hold out hope that the canes could make a trade  low enough to possibly  pick of Askarov  with a team that does not have him on their radar . 

 

So the question is  who do the Canes give up  in order to achieve that goal and to which team ?    

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19 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

 So the question is  who do the Canes give up  in order to achieve that goal and to which team ?    

I can’t see Minnesota or Chicago very interested in dealing with us knowing we would be targeting Askarov.

 

NJ may be our best bet but it would take a roster player or two to get to 11.  Maybe we could target Detroit all the way at 4. Yzerman may want to be better on the ice sense he missed on 1OA. It would take a haul though. Not many teams will be tanking for 1OA next season. 


Its probably out of the realm trying to go from 19 to 10 or so to get there. We are in win now mode and Askarov won’t be on NHL ice for 4 years.

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On 6/28/2020 at 10:31 AM, Canesfanforever said:
On 6/27/2020 at 10:46 PM, gocanes0506 said:

 

Being honest if the canes did manage to get the 1st pick ,  Id rather take my chances with Askarov

Cff, I was a little confused at your wording here, as others might have been it seems from some replies. In your latest post I think I might understand, and it would appear you were NOT speaking of the overall #1, where again LaFreniere is absolutely the only choice, but I guess Toronto's #1(? #10 or so), and I would agree that in that position, wherever it might lie, I would take a shot at Askarov. While it is argued and I agree that a goalie's development can be long, it sure would be nice to have a "future star" in the pipeline.

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Talk about moving out there into hypothetical land. Hey, nothing wrong with that. We have to anticipate where we end up picking, then try to fashion a hypothetical trade to get high enough to grab Askarov. Of course we also have to hypothetically decide where he actually goes, which really could be anywhere from say #4 to say #15. 

 

We have a very roughly 70% chance of picking #12 to #16 in that if either we or Toronto lose we would likely pick in that range (with an overall 6.25% chance that Toronoto loses and wins the lottery). So I assume we're talking about trying to trade up from say #15 to say #11. 

 

Lately, substantial trades up or down have become very rare. My theory is that the prices for moving up have skyrocketed as picks are more prized now than in the past. I have noted that picks are far more valued around the draft, than at other times of the year. But anyways, each year around the draft I refer to the fun chart produced by our own Eric Tulsky, that suggests the fair market price tag for moving up and down the draft in terms of packaging picks. https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up. It's probably a bit out of date now 7 years old, but it is based on actual comps of actual historical trades. 

 

If one slots this in to determine the price for that move.....I mean this is so unbelievable I need to post separately.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

but reality is  for the canes case lightning does not strike twice

Must I remind you that it not only did for Edmonton, but actually struck THREE times, but I do agree here?

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OK, check this out. If, based on Toronto or us losing, there is a roughly 70% chance we pick #12 - #16. But given the other teams that would all have to lose to get #12 and that if we lose, we can't do better than 14-15. Let's say that the best chance is for us to pick #15 if we or Toronto go out. 

 

OK, so for this hypothetical, we're number 15. Then lets say that, as in the NHL.com mock drafts, Askarov survives to #11, but might not drop lower. So, we want to move up to #11. Moving mid pack up a few slots is really the only move up trades we've seen lately.  Still uncommon, but they've happened. 

 

So, based on the Tulsky graph linked above, what would the price be to move up from #15 to #11? 

 

Well, #11 is 35 points. #15 is 28.5 points. Thus we need about 6.5 points added. If you go down the table, 6.5 points is the #47 pick (second rounder). So, where is our first second round pick?...I have the most amazing coincidence to report: our pick is #47. It is the exact price to move from #15 to #11. 

 

Dang. Maybe that is telling us something. 

 

So, if Askarov is still there, and the trade is available, would you trade our first rounder and our first second rounder, for the chance to pick Askarov? This is a fairly deep draft, and ironically there has been said to be a line after the first 10-15 players in the second round, so we'd be right near that line, but theoretically that could be a very good prospect given up to move up. Also, I can tell you that in my research, there will be a very good forward prospect at #15. 

 

I think that would still be a very hard trigger to pull. We'd be passing on the chance to pick from a couple of: Jarvis, Mercer, Holloway, Bourque, Zary, Quin, LaPierre and more, and then also passing on whoever dropped to #47.

 

I'd still do it though. I just think our unique troubles landing that goalie combined with our deep system right now, favors it. But it would not be easy to do. And recently the asking price has been even higher than Tuslky's prices. No doubt many would criticize the move. But swing for that fence. A franchise goalie to go with what we are building would put us right there at the top. Also, so many teams seem to be building elite: Colorodo with a deep system and great young players. All of NJ's high picks. The stinking Rangers. Etc. 

 

As fun as this is, in all my years of watching our draft, we have never traded up. This is a different regime, but it is just not done very often. Askarov would have to survive to #11, then whatever team is there would have to be willing to give him, and a few other options up, and then we'd have to decide to give up our high second rounder and whatever coveted forwards might be expected to be on the board at #15. 

 

Here's why it might be possible though. Getting a pretty high second rounder in this draft is a really nice prospect, it is potentially tempting. Also, the likely forwards from 11-15 and frankly the defenseman too, are not necessarily hugely different. So, if that team at #11 is not in the market for a goalie (either because they have one, or just don't want to risk such a high pick on a goalie), then they can get two really good prospects instead of one. I'd venture to guess that the #15 forward could easily end up with a better NHL career than the #11 forward. If you are the GM at #11 and you are lukewarm or worse on picking Askarov that high, and you are offered that deal? You should really take it. There are only a handful of teams that just can't historically find that goalie, and IMO it is only those teams that should do this, we are one of them.

 

Put another way, if we were sitting at #11 but there was no goalie in consideration, and some team offered up the #15 and #47 pick for our pick? I'd take that deal.

 

So, it's not insanely crazy that it could happen. Still unlikely though. 

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If we happen to fall in the 12-15 range it will still be tough to take Askarov there (or trade up).  We are slowly encroaching our window of a crazy competitive team. Askarov will more than likely not be ready until the end where Pesce and maybe even Slavin are UFAs. A forward at that pick could be ready to contribute in 2 seasons, maybe 3 to add to the depth of the team.  Reasonable timelines would say Askarov would be a backup 4-5 years from the draft and maybe a starter in year 5.  Sure he could be a Ward / Price and be on the ice 2-3 years post draft as there is always exceptions to the rule.  You cant plan for the exception to the rule.  At the same time, those 2 that were on the ice earlier have tailed off earlier too.  Cam and Carey both started tailing off stronger that the models suggest in their early 30s. The tailing off maybe due to playing 60+ games a season so, we could prevent that with a capable backup.  

 

If we had a 2nd first round, I could say taking Askarov makes sense because we would have a forward waiting in the mists to help sooner. 

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3 hours ago, KJUNKANE said:

Must I remind you that it not only did for Edmonton, but actually struck THREE times, but I do agree here?

CANES CASE !    those words can be key point . 

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7 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

but reality is  for the canes case lightning does not strike twice .  

This is what I was referring to Cff, and my point was that NO, IN THE CANES CASE, it has not, but that does not mean it could not, as demonstrated by Edmonton? I understand your "key point", but you've obviously missed mine?

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On 6/28/2020 at 11:53 AM, remkin said:

There is no doubt that LaFreniere is worth losing in the first round. But, do you feel lucky? There is still only a 1/8 chance. Highly unlikely. If that's what ends up happening we'll be dominant for a decade, especially if we can find any sort of goalie. But for it to happen we'd have to go out in the first play in round, then sit and watch the entire playoffs, then get very lucky in the new lottery. So, yes, that would be the best case (outside of winning the cup), but hard to really pull for it up front.

 

 

I thought they have the place card drawing immediately after the qualifying round so the wait won't be so long.   I do think several teams - like Montreal

and Chicago - will tank on purpose because they weren't supposed to be there anyways.  The Canes won't tank, but the Rangers series should be a

good one.  Whoever gets hot can go a long way.

Edited by MidnightAngel

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6 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

I thought they have the place card drawing immediately after the qualifying round so the wait won't be so long.   I do think several teams - like Montreal

and Chicago - will tank on purpose because they weren't supposed to be there anyways.  The Canes won't tank, but the Rangers series should be a

good one.  Whoever gets hot can go a long way.

The 2nd lottery is shortly after the play-in round is over.

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Another reason this draft will be different, signing bonuses will be paid before the draft. Trades during the draft may be greater as teams try to maneuver around the flat cap. 

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6 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

Another reason this draft will be different, signing bonuses will be paid before the draft. Trades during the draft may be greater as teams try to maneuver around the flat cap. 

Good point gocanes about trades. Like everything now, this draft will prove to be NOVEL 😃

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10 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

I thought they have the place card drawing immediately after the qualifying round so the wait won't be so long.   I do think several teams - like Montreal

and Chicago - will tank on purpose because they weren't supposed to be there anyways.  The Canes won't tank, but the Rangers series should be a

good one.  Whoever gets hot can go a long way.

Good point Midnight Angel and gocanes, I didn't realize that the second lottery was right away. That will make it a little better if you lose I guess. 

 

Tanking is always a fun discussion...not. But I've always been of the opinion that players should never and almost never do tank, and by extension the coaching staff don't either (possibly outside of ice time and goalie starts). Tanking mostly happens in the GM/Owner suite where they set up a substandard team on purpose. As an aside, I really don't think most players are that dialed into "wouldn't it be great if we had kid wonder in here next year".  I don't think Chicago or Montreal will even try at the GM level to tank for a 1/8 chance at the #1 pick. 

 

Now, if it were a better chance? Maybe. The temptation would be massive if the odds were much better. 

 

This year is a good example of the way the new system discourages tanking, as the Sherman-like season of Detroit got them the #4 pick. 

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On 7/1/2020 at 12:16 PM, remkin said:

Now, if it were a better chance? Maybe. The temptation would be massive if the odds were much better.

LOL, I suppose no one will try to lose.  Still, 12.5% is pretty huge when you consider that Ottawa had a 13.5% chance from the #2 slot

and San Jose (To OTT) had 11.5% at number 3.  For 8 pretty good teams to get a shot at the 1st overall pick .... there could be temptation.

 

 

Edited by MidnightAngel

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10 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

LOL, I suppose no one will try to lose.  Still, 12.5% is pretty huge when you consider that Ottawa had a 13.5% chance from the #2 slot

and San Jose (To OTT) had 11.5% at number 3.  For 8 pretty good teams to get a shot at the 1st overall pick .... there could be temptation.

No, you're right.  12.5% chance is a very good chance relatively. Our chance if the season had played out would be 0 -2% depending on if we made the playoffs. Dang if that Toronto pick were just not lottery protected, our odds could have theoretically gone to 25%. I we had missed the playoffs had the season finished, our chance at #1 would have been 1-2% depending on how close we missed the playoffs. So they'd be up to 12.5X better than we would have looked at with a full season playoff miss. Fun with numbers.

 

Another way of looking at it, is that assuming all teams are even, our chance at winning the cup is 4.2%. Even if we get past the Rangers, with no weighting, our cup chance would be 6.25% for the remaining 16 vs. 12.5% chance at LaFreniere. Considering we might have to get past the likes of Tampa and Boston, the best team in the West and the Rangers, who have owned us, our chance is probably a bit less than 4.2%.

 

Yet another way of looking at it, it that if we go out in round one, we not only weigh a 12.5% chance at LaFreniere vs a remaining 6.25% chance at a cup, had we won our way in, but if we go out we would be highly likely to pick between 12 and 15 (vs the 19 we'd likely get if we lose in the next round). So in the drafting scenarios, assuming Toronto doesn't win the lottery, us losing would yield a 12.5% chance at LaFreniere, and a 87.5% chance of picking around #14 vs us winning where our pick goes from #19 and down depending on how far we go and who else loses out.

 

Last thing. Winning the play in, just means we get to play round 2 against a bye team, with at best a 50-50 chance of beating them. TBH the worst case scenario in a way, is to win the play in, then go out in either of the first two rounds of the playoffs, which would be the most likely scenario for any team the wins round one. So, if you win round one, you better win 2 more rounds or you'd have been better off losing the play-in, most likely. There is little doubt that a win to get in followed by an exit in the next round, is the worst case really, since at least getting two "playoff" round wins is a decent accomplishment. 

 

(Getting to the ECF and losing would kill the draft pick, but at that point you have a team that has done that two years in a row with pretty sick playoff success for a young team with average goaltending). 

 

If one were looking only at numbers, this would be a year that overall odds for a better long-term outcome actually does fairly strongly favor going out in the play-in round. It is better from a purely long term, coldly numerical odds of a better team down the road to go out. I just don't think this is enough incentive for a team to really try to make that happen even at the executive suite level. And not a desirable pre-series hope for a fan.

 

It does provide a very nice consolation though if we happen to go out in round one. 

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If the Zona, CLB, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary and Chicago all win and Toronto, Edmonton, and Pittsburgh don’t win the lottery (please be Minnesota, please, please).

1. Minnesota

2-8. in stone

9. Jets

10. NYR

11. Panthers

12. Nashville

13. Toronto (goes to us)

14. Oilers

15. Pittsburgh

 

Who between 9-12 takes Askarov?  Nashville, maybe.  They need offense though. Could Askarov slip to 13?  This is the best case scenario for it to happen.

 

also would guarantee our pick is no better than 22. 

Edited by gocanes0506

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Somehow I can totally live with Minnesota winning the lottery. 

 

Having spent a bit of time (but already forgotten half of it) on this draft, I am of the firm opinion that we are going to get a very good player at #13. And while there will be some hits in the bottom third of this draft, they are much more hit or miss down in the 20's than the guy at #13 will be.

 

Despite the natural fear and contingency of pundits who say never draft a goalie in the first round, let alone top half of the first round, I think that if we end up at #13, we are almost the perfect storm team to move heaven and Earth to move up and try to get Askarov, and if he falls to #13? Next best thing to winning the lottery, and maybe even better. Why us?

 

Here's SEVEN REASONS WHY:

 

1. We've never had a franchise goalie. 

2. Part of the reason that GM's tend to not take goalies is two-fold: half don't work out, and the other half hit their stride long after said GM is gone. Well we have a committee, that ultimately rests on the owner, who hopefully will still be around when Askarov hits and a GM in Waddell that is almost a reluctant GM. 

3. This team has everything else both on the ice and in the system. Assuming we re-sign Dougie, we have a team with 3 Superstars: Dougie, Svechnikov, Aho, three near superstars in TT, Slavin and soon Necas. The underrated D man in Pesce, and lots of very nice pieces otherwise blending into a very good D, and depth of scoring to go with our elite guys. 

4. Team save percentage correlates with playoffs as well as any other metric and better than most. We've been trying to do it despite that. The advantage of having a total stud back there makes everything else easier.

5. We have a stable of drafted position players. Over many previous years where our best prospects fizzled (Boychuk, Murphy) or were marginal players (Bowman, Dalpe, etc), we have a very deep pool of potentially very good NHL players on D (Bean/Keane/Honka), but especially forwards: (Bokk, Suzuki, Rees, Puistola, Drury, Cotton, Geekie (moving out of prospect but still technically there)). We can go goalie and still have lots of positional developmental depth).

6. We have 2 second round picks this year, including the #16 pick of round 2 from the Rangers for Fox. (And 2 third rounders).

That last one has two parts: 1. We get two shots at position players in the second round. 2. We have a chip to trade top possibly move up a couple of spots to grab Askarov. 

7. Finally, this is the top NHL goalie prospect in recent years. Some do put him higher than Spencer Knight. In my reading, in every single aspect of his career Askarov is really seen as close to generational. This is on a write up of what Craig Button thinks:

 

Askarov is no ordinary goaltending prospect. TSN Director of Scouting, Craig Button, believes that the netminder, among others, could challenge Alexis Lafreniere for the number one spot come draft day in June 2020. With all of the talent in the draft, I think that it will be difficult for Askarov to go first overall, but he’s definitely a top-10, possibly top-five, pick.

 

His pedigree is as good or better than Vasilevski was at his age, and many very elite prospects fall below his accomplishments. The only blemish in this guy's entire career was a subpar performance over 5 games in the recent U20 Tourney. I really think that if not for that, this guy would be a lock for a top 5 pick, and he still might be. This guy's resume is really off the hook. IMO we should move heaven and Earth to get this guy including trading up.

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I think Cam Ward may be a little upset about the "never having a franchise goalie" statement. He like Staal live the best times of the Franchise but also some pretty bad ones where they were the only 2 players of mention.  

 

With the length of time it takes goalies to come around and the heightened analytics for value , I dont see anyone taking a goalie in the top 10 again.  I may be crazy but, Ottawa may be the only one at the 5th spot who would consider it. 

 

 

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So, all long timers here know that I keep fantasizing about moving up in the draft and to do so I keep using our own Eric Tulsky's table of the estimated cost of moving up from various spots to various other spots in terms of adding draft picks as the price. This fantasy has yet to be realized, but that doesn't mean one can't keep dreaming. 

 

My dream in this draft would be to trade up and get Askarov. (Sure it would be better if he drops to us, but I think it unlikely).

 

No one ever really knows how a given draft will play out, and a goalie like Askarov is about as big of an unknown wild card as there is. It's a pretty safe bet that the eventually lottery winner is taking LaFrenierre, but after that? Askarov could, in theory go anywhere from #2 to ????. Really the phase one lottery teams are mostly not in that position because they have a young goalie of the future already rocking the pipes. Almost all of them need goaltending. 

 

That said, it will be hard for LA and Ottawa to pass on some offensive dynamo's like Stutzle and Byfield. But that just gets us to Detroit at #4. Could Askarov go here? Detroit needs just about everything. It might be hard to go for the long term project in goal, but they do need that. Then Ottawa steps back up. If Detroit goes Drysdale, Ottawa might go goalie since it's their second first rounder, or even if Drysdale is still there. Having that second high pick helps isolate the GM from spending a first rounder on a goalie. This is not outside of the range of possible.  If it goes 1. LaFrenniere. 2. Stutzle 3. Byfield 4. Rossi. 5. Drysdale 6. 7. and 8 are Anaheim, NJ, Buffalo, all of whom need goalies. 

 

If I had to bet and could take 3 slots where Askarov probably goes it would be 6.7.8. BUT there are offensive studs left for all of those slots (Perfetti, Holtz, Raymond) and some like Sanderson on D. These players are good enough to keep the rest of the lottery GMs off the goalie button, but it only takes one to push it. 

 

If we get to #9 things could get very INTERESTING and this is where most likely we could strike to move up a little. 

 

#9 WPG: They are set in goal.

#10: NYR: They are more than set in goal.

#11: FLA: Went with a goalie at #13 last year, no way will they do it again.

#12: Nashville: Oh, isn't it always the way. The team right ahead of us could use a goalie. 

 

If I had to bet on where Askarov goes if he makes it past #8, it would be #12 exactly ahead of us. Three more players will have come off the board and taking him at #12 would be a steal. 

 

SO, committee, if you're listening, if Askarov makes it past #8, it is time to get on the ringer and get a deal in place with say WPG. To block out Nashville from taking him. 

 

Moving from #13 to #9 should cost our first second rounder and possibly a 4th rounder. Frankly I'd give up our second third rounder. So, picks #47 (we're picking again at 52) and #83. This would leave us with a full draft still. That would seal the deal. 

 

A cheaper option would be to get something lined up with Florida. Moving from #13 to #11 would theoretically only cost a third and fourth rounder. But giving them our lower second rounder would be a steal for them. But it could be hairy. If Nashville really wants Askarov, and catches us doing that might get a bidding war, while slipping in at 9 or even 10 would be more likely to catch them off guard. 

 

Lastly, moving up to #8 where Buffalo is really trying to retool quite a bit, and is ripe for the taking, might agree to our first second rounder, our first third rounder and maybe even our 4th rounder. This would still leave us with a full draft minus our 4th round pick. They might do it for 3 more draft picks. 

 

 

Yes, there are too many things to consider. But mainly if Askarov gets past Buffalo, we probably have to do something to get ahead of Nashville, but only them.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

I think Cam Ward may be a little upset about the "never having a franchise goalie" statement. He like Staal live the best times of the Franchise but also some pretty bad ones where they were the only 2 players of mention.  

 

With the length of time it takes goalies to come around and the heightened analytics for value , I dont see anyone taking a goalie in the top 10 again.  I may be crazy but, Ottawa may be the only one at the 5th spot who would consider it. 

I love Cam, and he's the closest thing we've had, but outside of his magical Cup run he only had one elite year in his entire career. If the bulk of his career had more years like his All Star year....but alas, they did not. He's been a monumental Cane, but not my definition of that kind of goalie.

 

I laid out some thoughts above, but I would not be surprised if anyone from 6-8 took Askarov. He's mentioned as close to Cary Price in potential. But there are also enough really good prospects for him to fall to #9 or below and if the stars align the drop from 8-12 seems pretty quick, but then stops one floor above us.

 

(OK probably should wait for the actual finish of the playoffs for all of this, but where's the fun in that?).

 

But if it's Nashville at #12. That's a franchise that knows the value of an elite goalie and could reload in a couple of years. Askarov was already playing solidly in the #2 men's league in the world currently. He could be NHL ready fairly soon. Can you see him getting past Nashville if they end up ahead of us? 

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The only reason Askarov may get past Nashville is because they need offense and Poile will be fighting for his job. He could be thinking shorter term than a goalie.

1. Laf

2. Stutz

3. Byfield

4. Perfetti *seems like Yzerman move but I don’t think you can take him here*

5. Drysdale

6. Raymond/ Rossi

7. Holtz / the other not picked at 6

8. Buffalo: Rossi, Askarov possibility (they have sucked so long they will want quicker value than a goalie)

9. Jets- Sanderson / Lundell

10. Rangers- Schneider / Quinn

11. Florida- one of the 4 above (quinn preferably)

12: Nashville- lundell, Quinn, Mercer, Jarvis, Amirov. * possible Askarov place•

 

if Minnesota doesn’t win the lottery, Askarov won’t make it past Minnesota.

Edited by gocanes0506

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