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Off-Season Trades 2020

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Well this is different

 
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We probably won’t have trades until the fall after the playoffs. Well, except there 7 teams who can make trades now

 


 

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theScore

The seven clubs that aren't part of the 24-team expanded playoff format are now eligible to make trades with one another, according to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.

The eliminated teams are the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres, Los Angeles Kings, San Jose Sharks, and Anaheim Ducks

 

 

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21 minutes ago, bluedevil58 said:

How did the San Jose sharks bot make the playoffs?  What a bust.

 

They only had 63 points.  :grin:

Edited by LakeLivin

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Find a team to take Staal, eat part of his 6m salary and get a player and maybe a pick in return.  League has become too fast for him based on size and age. He has his good moments to be sure but his value isn't going up at this point, so capitalize on moving him at seasons end. Plus a Captain he isn't. Can't speak to his respect quotient inside the locker room but I just don't see it as high with the young guys. He has never had any capacity by way of presence and personality to be the face of the Canes in that role. Start fresh. Willy will be retired, trade Staal and re-think what role the Captain plays in this modern game; sticks up for teammates by being willing if necessary, a reasonable points contributor, respect of the locker room, and looks at the camera when being interviewed and, has more than a 100 word vocabulary. Do not pick a Captain because he scores the most goals and has high point totals but is nowhere to be seen when the going gets rough. A damn shame Willy wasn't the Captain from day one when he returned. Had such league wide respect.

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Trying to move Staal is an interesting topic IMO. At least it's not talking about a virus. The NTC notwithstanding.

 

There is a piece on fansided about 3 trades the Canes should make offseason.  1. Trade a goalie and go UFA offseason, preferably Lehner. Agree. 2. Trade for a middle 6 forward, JVR. Disagree. 3. Trade Staal. Hmmm. 

 

There is no question that Staal seems to be a guy who maybe could use a change of scenery. OK this seems like an odd take since he's Captain. But even though the league may be a step quick for him, I've still seen flashes of beast mode from him. I no longer think he can hit his peak production, but he has to have more than this last year saw. And he is solid on D still, and brings some physical and wins faceoffs. 

 

I still think he is a solid third line center for a good team, especially given his d prowess. 

 

But there seems to be something about Raleigh and Staals where their production just fades out over time. Do they get too comfortable? I don't know, but something seems to happen, and Eric at least got his mojo back after leaving here. Then there's the whole effect of his captaincy, which IMO is still uncertain, but definitely not Brind'Amourian, or even Williamsonian. 

 

I'd still like Staal as a non captain making tweener second/third line money, without a NTC. But that's not the situation. I like him as a third line center, but Brind'Amour and the team seem unable to just call him that, and he surely isn't being paid that way. 

 

As always, it also comes down to return, and this is where the NTC often fouls things up as guys tailor where they can be traded and limit the market. 

 

Anyway, I don't think Stone Hands will be putting up major numbers anymore, but I do think he can be one of the best third line centers in the game, so I'm torn. Clearly Brind'Amour thinks the world of him. It would be a bold move though.

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2 hours ago, remkin said:

Trying to move Staal is an interesting topic IMO. At least it's not talking about a virus. The NTC notwithstanding.

 

There is a piece on fansided about 3 trades the Canes should make offseason.  1. Trade a goalie and go UFA offseason, preferably Lehner. Agree. 2. Trade for a middle 6 forward, JVR. Disagree. 3. Trade Staal. Hmmm. 

 

There is no question that Staal seems to be a guy who maybe could use a change of scenery. OK this seems like an odd take since he's Captain. But even though the league may be a step quick for him, I've still seen flashes of beast mode from him. I no longer think he can hit his peak production, but he has to have more than this last year saw. And he is solid on D still, and brings some physical and wins faceoffs. 

 

I still think he is a solid third line center for a good team, especially given his d prowess. 

 

But there seems to be something about Raleigh and Staals where their production just fades out over time. Do they get too comfortable? I don't know, but something seems to happen, and Eric at least got his mojo back after leaving here. Then there's the whole effect of his captaincy, which IMO is still uncertain, but definitely not Brind'Amourian, or even Williamsonian. 

 

I'd still like Staal as a non captain making tweener second/third line money, without a NTC. But that's not the situation. I like him as a third line center, but Brind'Amour and the team seem unable to just call him that, and he surely isn't being paid that way. 

 

As always, it also comes down to return, and this is where the NTC often fouls things up as guys tailor where they can be traded and limit the market. 

 

Anyway, I don't think Stone Hands will be putting up major numbers anymore, but I do think he can be one of the best third line centers in the game, so I'm torn. Clearly Brind'Amour thinks the world of him. It would be a bold move though.

 

 

It's all a result of his ridiculous contract (thanks, Rutherfart).  If he's being paid $3-4M with no NTC, centering the 3rd line & PK, and skating around with an A, i think the vast majority of Canes fans are smiling and profiling to have him out there as long as he wants to stick around.  But as long as he's the highest-paid player on the ice not named Aho, is being overslotted (the only time he should ever touch ice with Svech is if there's an injury and he's filling the gap), and is the C leading his troops into battle, he's not the guy.  I still think he brings little that the now-gone much-cheaper Wallmark couldn't/didn't provide, and that cash could be quite useful somewhere else.

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The Staal talk is interesting.  At least there is now an end in site.  $6M is a lot, but at least it isn't bat-guano crazy (anymore).  3 years left after this.

 

The reason I mention this is because I had a long drive and listened to a lot of hockey talk on XM.  The wailing and gnashing of teeth in Slugs-land is epic.  Skinner has SEVEN more years at $9M.  And an NMC.  Talk about hand wringing!  Good luck Kevyn Adams.  Your first responsibility as GM was to lay off 30 people (as directed by ownership) to help pay for this kind of damage.  The entire scouting staff was permanently fired.  TD may be edgy.  The organ is gone, Chuck K. is gone.  But as far as I know, at least we have our scouting staff (or most of them).

 

I was going to make a joke here about a straight up 1 for 1 trade Staal for Skinner, but you'd all think I completely lost my mind and wouldn't even laugh.

Edited by wxray1

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The Fansided site is fairly garbage and the idea of trading for JVR just adds to their reputation.

 

The Athletic had a bad contracts judge/jury piece and it mentioned Staal. The decision was the contract isnt as bad now as it was when it was signed. 6 million for a center really isn’t a ton anymore and we only have 3 years left.

 

I don’t see Staal being traded.

1. He is the captain

2. he is the only center RBA trusts

3. With a flat cap over the next 2 seasons, we wont see many teams with the space to add a 6 million dollar 3rd line center (us retaining makes no sense for us).

 

Needs: 2nd line winger, G, 3rd pairing RHD, RH winger for the 3rd line.

 

trade pieces: Gardiner/ Skjei, Reimer, Nino, Dzingel, picks & prospects

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1 minute ago, gocanes0506 said:

The Fansided site is fairly garbage and the idea of trading for JVR just adds to their reputation.

 

Just wondering why this is so?  It appears to be a opinion based site providing opportunities to review potential scenarios.  Kinda like this one in some ways. There are all kinds of possibilities and opinions to consider on both sites.

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59 minutes ago, cc said:

Just wondering why this is so?  It appears to be a opinion based site providing opportunities to review potential scenarios.  Kinda like this one in some ways. There are all kinds of possibilities and opinions to consider on both sites.

JVR is another Skinner and costs 7 million per year.  He doesn’t make sense for us stylistically or contract wise.
 

fansided has some outrageous trade scenarios that rarely make some bit of sense. The Draisaitl trade proposal was a great laughing piece.

Edited by gocanes0506

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8 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

fansided has some outrageous trade scenarios that rarely make some bit of sense. The Draisaitl trade proposal was a great laughing piece.

 

This topic always made listening to Phil Esposito on XM a lot of fun.  I don't think he is on anymore.  But when he was, people would bring up fansided kinds of trades and he'd lose his mind.  Part of his employment included being a GM giving him decent inside thoughts.  So, when fans would bring up crazy trades, he'd have to remind them of the economics and moving parts.  Every now and then a trade would be so nuts he'd lose it and drop a few swear bombs.  Great radio.  Since the NHL XM channel is supposed to be free of such language, he probably got scolded for that. 

Edited by wxray1

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21 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

JVR is another Skinner and costs 7 million per year.  He doesn’t make sense for us stylistically or contract wise.
 

fansided has some outrageous trade scenarios that rarely make some bit of sense. The Draisaitl trade proposal was a great laughing piece.

I get that. These are opinions or scenarios.  I dont think they make any claims of the likelihood of these playing out.  

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I agree that Fansided is pretty fluffy, which is why I didn't even link it. But I would say that our biggest need remains between the pipes. I just am not sold on Mrazek or Reimer as the answer. Give this team a top 10 NHL #1 goalie and the rest of our needs are tweeks. 

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

I agree that Fansided is pretty fluffy, which is why I didn't even link it. But I would say that our biggest need remains between the pipes. I just am not sold on Mrazek or Reimer as the answer. Give this team a top 10 NHL #1 goalie and the rest of our needs are tweeks. 

 

I wonder whether the Lehner negotiations last year were reasonably amiable or if there were bridges burned? Last summer we had hopes that Mrazek would fill the starters role, but as much as I like him, he hasn't shown that to be the case. Given that, presumably the Canes have upped the value of a starting goalie to the team.  Unfortunately, with just a few exceptions, it seems like goalie is the most risky positional investment.  But imo Lehner has earned the right to demand both term and $.  I wonder if there's some place he and the Canes can meet? We have to be attractive from the potential of a perennial contender going forward.  Not sure how high the $$ competition will be on the open market, though.         

Edited by LakeLivin

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I think Lehner is getting on the wrong side of the age bracket. He may be worth the first two seasons but the last 3-4 will be up in the air.

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53 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

I think Lehner is getting on the wrong side of the age bracket. He may be worth the first two seasons but the last 3-4 will be up in the air.

 

If he were a skater, and especially a forward, I'd agree. But seems like goalies generally develop later and play effectively longer.  Lehner turns 29 in July; I'd be comfortable with him signing a reasonably long term contract, especially if it were structured so we could eat the last year or two if we had to.   

Edited by LakeLivin

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1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

 

If he were a skater, and especially a forward, I'd agree. But seems like goalies generally develop later and play effectively longer.  Lehner turns 29 in July; I'd be comfortable with him signing a reasonably long term contract, especially if it were structured so we could eat the last year or two if we had to.   

Just ditch any NTC.

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3 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

If he were a skater, and especially a forward, I'd agree. But seems like goalies generally develop later and play effectively longer.  Lehner turns 29 in July; I'd be comfortable with him signing a reasonably long term contract, especially if it were structured so we could eat the last year or two if we had to.   


https://thehockeywriters.com/3-old-goalies-breaking-the-curve/

 

this article covers age production from forwards and goaltenders. It quotes the 2nd hyperlink from 2014 that covers goalies production predictability. It discusses 3 outliers to the model.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/amp/
 

this article from hockey-graphs goes over loss of save percentage by goalies from one age to the next.

 

in short:

18-23: increase in sv percentage 

24: peak in sv percentage

25-31: little loss of sv percentage, around .001-.003

32-34: sharper sv percentage loss

35+: production starts falling off the cliff

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:


https://thehockeywriters.com/3-old-goalies-breaking-the-curve/

 

this article covers age production from forwards and goaltenders. It quotes the 2nd hyperlink from 2014 that covers goalies production predictability. It discusses 3 outliers to the model.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/amp/
 

this article from hockey-graphs goes over loss of save percentage by goalies from one age to the next.

 

in short:

18-23: increase in sv percentage 

24: peak in sv percentage

25-31: little loss of sv percentage, around .001-.003

32-34: sharper sv percentage loss

35+: production starts falling off the cliff

 

I'm sure Tulsky is all over this, and with the benefit of an additional 6 years of data since that article was written.  It would be interesting to see what his latest analyses say.

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13 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I'm sure Tulsky is all over this, and with the benefit of an additional 6 years of data since that article was written.  It would be interesting to see what his latest analyses say.

The data is relative to the goalie. To use the linear model on Lehner

28: 920

29: 918

30: 916

31: 914
32: 911

33: 908

34: 905

35: 901

 

918 and 916 would be okay at 6 million (estimate) but after that it starts to get iffy.

 

now if his peak year was last season and his numbers shift or if the .010 drop was due to he was on a crap Chicago team. We shift his SV % to the .930 from last season:

27: 930

28: 929

29: 927

30: 925

31: 923

32: 920

33: 917

34: 914

35: 911


which one is it? It might be in between there as well

Edited by gocanes0506

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

The data is relative to the goalie. To use the linear model on Lehner

28: 920

29: 918

30: 916

31: 914
32: 911

33: 908

34: 905

35: 901

 

918 and 916 would be okay at 6 million (estimate) but after that it starts to get iffy.

 

now if his peak year was last season and his numbers shift or if its just because he was on a crap Chicago team. We shift his SV % to the .930 from last season:

27: 930

28: 929

29: 927

30: 925

31: 923

32: 920

33: 917

34: 914

35: 911


which one is it? It might be in between there as well

 

I'm guessing Tulsky is able to get a much better model with all of the additional data, including it seems a fair bit on older goalies (as per the first article you linked).  I think they went back 18 years, so not only should Tulsky have 1/3 again as much data (important given how small the sample size was), but I also believe the models weight more recent data more heavily, so the new data could have an even bigger impact.

 

Then, you have the outliers that are mentioned in the first article you linked, older goalies that didn't crater at 35.  It would be interesting to see if there are any indicators Tulsky could find that might hint at candidates for longer success?

 

I wish Tulsky had a blog, but I'm sure his analytics are viewed as proprietary and kept very close to the Canes figurative vest. Interesting stuff, thanks for posting gocanes. 

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Pretty big difference between those two progressions. The second one is pretty good. 

 

I like the idea of Lehner because I think he's the best goalie that's clearly going to be out there. But the UFA and age question is legit. Further, the Canes have had a shot at Lehner and either passed or lost out for some other reason. Lehner does also carry some downside risk in terms of the non hockey issue, which he seems to be overcoming, but is still probably holding back his value. 

 

To me this is where I'd think about more money, less term, and ideally no NTC. Problem being, of course, as a UFA he might be able to command a NTC. 

 

There may be better options, but 5 years of the goalie projection in the second one, would add up to one of, if not the best goalies in franchise history. Tulsky or not, it's a nut this franchise has not been able to crack.

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34 minutes ago, remkin said:

Pretty big difference between those two progressions. The second one is pretty good. 

 

I like the idea of Lehner because I think he's the best goalie that's clearly going to be out there. But the UFA and age question is legit. Further, the Canes have had a shot at Lehner and either passed or lost out for some other reason. Lehner does also carry some downside risk in terms of the non hockey issue, which he seems to be overcoming, but is still probably holding back his value. 

 

To me this is where I'd think about more money, less term, and ideally no NTC. Problem being, of course, as a UFA he might be able to command a NTC. 

 

There may be better options, but 5 years of the goalie projection in the second one, would add up to one of, if not the best goalies in franchise history. Tulsky or not, it's a nut this franchise has not been able to crack.

 

Last summer we still had the possibility of Mrazek being a viable #1.  I wonder if the fact that those odds have gone way down might have increased the value of Lehner to the Canes?  Also, if Chicago dealing Lehner within the year rather than extending him might have altered his perspective a bit?  Of course, a huge factor would be what other teams were offering.  Bottom line: seems like a different  environment from last summer. 

 

I'm with you guys as far as no NTC, although I might be open to a couple years of a 6 or so team exclusion list.  I think Lehner has earned the right to protect himself from having to go to a real bad situation, but don't do anything that would completely kill a potential trade market (Skinner!!).    

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59 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

I might be open to a couple years of a 6 or so team exclusion list. 

Please no.

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Lehner is looking for stability and getting his worth.  A .930 sv percentage put him in elite company. Canes and Islanders werent willing to pay top money for one big year. Canes went with value in Mrazek and Islanders went with better contract in Varlamov.  Lehner was stuck with taking more money with less term. His .920 average will bring his ask down although his agent will use his .940 sv percentage with Vegas to show what he can do with a good defense in front of him.  Im expecting him to want 7 million per for 5-6 years.  Probably settle for 6 to 6.5.
 

that is a risky thing during years 5 and 6 of the deal.  With us lacking a ELC goalie to balance out the tandem for years, it seems outside of the mgmt’s value way of doing business.  If we moved Reimer to Ottawa for one of their many picks then maybe we do it.  
 

another option is Jake Allen from St Louis. He had a strong bounce back year with in fewer games. Could be a good option for 1A/1B tandem and give us a year to see how he fits our system. Him and Mrazek battle it out to see who gets the extension. St Louis needs to cut cap. Allen and Bozak for Dzingel. A move of Reimer and another cap hit (if needed) to Ottawa for their lowest 2nd or a 3rd. 

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