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Offseason Talk 2020

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On 9/6/2020 at 10:26 AM, remkin said:

Markstrom. UFA. 30 years old. Most think Vancouver has to sign him. Also one of the better goalies. I'd take him. Need no NMC and no more than 4 year deal. (3 would be better). Not sure that would get it done.

I  could see  Vancouver  getting a  1 year   for Markstrom   and  him coming off that  as a ufa  would allow  the canucks to  protect Demko and   then re-sign   Markstrom to a big fat  contract afterwords .  But their Cap is  no better .   They still have to pay out  lou    and  they have to decide who they want to  keep to make more room  for others . 

 

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Did a very quick search on Puistola. Sounds like he's going to be an interesting prospect to watch. Interesting from the perspectives of high upside as well as challenges he may need to overcome to be successful in the Canes organization?  Here's a couple excerpts:

 

  •  He is very much an offensive player with limited skill on defense, so he will need to produce in the points column in order to transition into a successful pro career. He has been stylistically compared to Phil Kessel; a pure sniper if there ever was one. cardiaccane 2019
  • He moves the puck well, generally drives the pace of play and shows the self-assurance to try clever and creative playsFuture Considerations 2019
  • Sniper alert! Puistola may be a one-trick pony, but it’s a pretty good trick. He scores goalsMcKeen's Hockey 2019

Hopefully the kid won't be another Zykov or Saarela, scorers at lower levels who didn't fully transition to the NHL (at least with the Canes). 

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27 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

Hopefully the kid won't be another Zykov or Saarela, scorers at lower levels who didn't fully transition to the NHL (at least with the Canes). 

 

I think the more appropriate question is......can he skate?  The Zykov's, Saarela's, and even Lucas Wallmark had brick feet.  IMO, that's the reason they were made expendable and shipped out.  Francis valued size, and drafted that way.  Skating seems to be the big driver in recent draft picks.

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5 minutes ago, coastal_caniac said:

 

I think the more appropriate question is......can he skate?  The Zykov's, Saarela's, and even Lucas Wallmark had brick feet.  IMO, that's the reason they were made expendable and shipped out.  Francis valued size, and drafted that way.  Skating seems to be the big driver in recent draft picks.

 

That's a good point, and I didn't notice any mention of his skating either way. But if the reports I quoted are accurate (your guess is as good as mine) I still think a huge question is whether the kid will fit in Rod's system from a 2-way/compete perspective. I mean, Geekie isn't exactly a speed demon and he's finding a spot. Here's another way I'm thinking about it; how well would a Phil Kessel fit in with a Brindy team? Puistola is young, and hopefully the Canes can mold him to where it wouldn't be an issue. 

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I really have not seen much of Puistola, and so it's really hard to put whatever value that has on him. I do think that Rod does not want defensive passengers, but not everyone has to be Jordan Staal either. Even Jeff Skinner showed over periods that he could hit that minimum threshold shy of total defensive uselessness to make him a net positive player. Just couldn't get him to stick with it. His utter unwillingness to put the D effort in consistently clearly ground Rod's gears.  If Puistola can show the interest and at least make some attempt, his offense could be enough to keep him in the league. 

 

In Pronman's write up, I didn't really get the feeling that he played Skinner-style Ole' defense. Cardiac Cane is pretty low on my list of sources, so while I'm sure Puistola's offense is his ticket, I'm not so sure his d is that bad. Since it's been over a year and it's only one small part of the whole write up, I'll just quote the rest of Pronman's take last year: (bold is mine).

 

As a 17-year-old, Puistola made pro defenders look foolish, and he has a high level of creativity to try to make tough plays every game. He’s a good passer, but I wouldn’t call him the type who tries to find seams off the flank. Rather he relies on his creativity to find options the defense isn’t expecting and plays well in small spaces. Puistola has a good shot, too; but despite his high goal totals last season, I wouldn’t call him a sniper. He created goals with his skill and compete level. He got to the net and showed he can be a decent penalty killer. My main issue with his game is his skating. It’s not bad and he has some speed, but his stride is inefficient and can break down at times. 

 

Francis did mention speed as more important to him than size, but the committee doesn't seem to be drafting speed demons as much as valuing high end skill and hockey IQ IMO. If a guy is not a top 5 pick, he probably has some "knock" on him. Not having blazing speed is not a bad knock. A lot of guys with that eye-popping speed, don't seem to have the matching skill at the NHL level to really use it to create offense. A few do, and those are elite. Connor McDavid, Nathan McKinnon, but they are super elite. A level or two down IMO will be Necas. But mostly we want guys who can skate, but not necessarily skate like the wind, but have high hockey skill and IQ. At least that's what I've seen of the committee so far. 

 

But to make the NHL, there has to be that phrase listed in bold above: "compete level". More than anything Rod expects his players to compete all over the ice. 

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25 minutes ago, remkin said:

I really have not seen much of Puistola, and so it's really hard to put whatever value that has on him. I do think that Rod does not want defensive passengers, but not everyone has to be Jordan Staal either. Even Jeff Skinner showed over periods that he could hit that minimum threshold shy of total defensive uselessness to make him a net positive player. Just couldn't get him to stick with it. His utter unwillingness to put the D effort in consistently clearly ground Rod's gears.  If Puistola can show the interest and at least make some attempt, his offense could be enough to keep him in the league. 

 

In Pronman's write up, I didn't really get the feeling that he played Skinner-style Ole' defense. Cardiac Cane is pretty low on my list of sources, so while I'm sure Puistola's offense is his ticket, I'm not so sure his d is that bad. Since it's been over a year and it's only one small part of the whole write up, I'll just quote the rest of Pronman's take last year: (bold is mine).

 

As a 17-year-old, Puistola made pro defenders look foolish, and he has a high level of creativity to try to make tough plays every game. He’s a good passer, but I wouldn’t call him the type who tries to find seams off the flank. Rather he relies on his creativity to find options the defense isn’t expecting and plays well in small spaces. Puistola has a good shot, too; but despite his high goal totals last season, I wouldn’t call him a sniper. He created goals with his skill and compete level. He got to the net and showed he can be a decent penalty killer. My main issue with his game is his skating. It’s not bad and he has some speed, but his stride is inefficient and can break down at times. 

 

Francis did mention speed as more important to him than size, but the committee doesn't seem to be drafting speed demons as much as valuing high end skill and hockey IQ IMO. If a guy is not a top 5 pick, he probably has some "knock" on him. Not having blazing speed is not a bad knock. A lot of guys with that eye-popping speed, don't seem to have the matching skill at the NHL level to really use it to create offense. A few do, and those are elite. Connor McDavid, Nathan McKinnon, but they are super elite. A level or two down IMO will be Necas. But mostly we want guys who can skate, but not necessarily skate like the wind, but have high hockey skill and IQ. At least that's what I've seen of the committee so far. 

 

But to make the NHL, there has to be that phrase listed in bold above: "compete level". More than anything Rod expects his players to compete all over the ice. 

 

As you say, all but the very top prospects are going to have weaknesses of one type or another. If Puistola's main one is really skating technique, that's great because from everything I've read that's something that can be corrected. Matter of fact, I just read in another forum that Brayden Point significantly improved his after being coached by Barb Underhill. Here's the quote attributed to Jon Cooper "His skating has improved so much, it’s gone from a weakness to a strength."  

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Just now, LakeLivin said:

 

As you say, all but the very top prospects are going to have weaknesses of one type or another. If Puistola's main one is really skating technique, that's great because from everything I've read that's something that can be corrected. Matter of fact, I just read in another forum that Brayden Point significantly improved his after being coached by Barb Underhill. Here's the quote attributed to Jon Cooper "His skating has improved so much, it’s gone from a weakness to a strength."  

I've heard that too. Supposedly a big knock on John Tavares too. He's done pretty well though.

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On 9/6/2020 at 10:26 AM, remkin said:

Anderson was average last year, but his upside is top 10 the previous two season, so I'd definitely look into him. The thing is the one year. Once he's a UFA, probably not as he'd be on the wrong side of 31, and have to battle with a UFA contract. 

 

Goalies that have been mentioned that I'd rather have:

 

Merzlinkins. Strong numbers. Big. Young. Can't see him actually moving.

Kuemper. One of the best goalies in the NHL. Not sure why Arizona would trade, but maybe he wants out. Massive gain if we got him. Massive.

Lehner. If this guy hasn't established himself yet in about 4 different situations, who has. He's really really good. But Vegas probably signs him.

Raanta. He's one of the best goalies in the NHL also, but incredibly injury prone. I'd still go for him, but the price would have to be low: 3rd rounder, something like that. 1 yr left.

Markstrom. UFA. 30 years old. Most think Vancouver has to sign him. Also one of the better goalies. I'd take him. Need no NMC and no more than 4 year deal. (3 would be better). Not sure that would get it done.

 

I suppose the Kuemper talk was just idle chatter, but if that's there, two years of him and drafting Askarov could be, as I mentioned once before, genius.

 

I don't think the Kuemper talk is idle chatter.  Supposedly, Arizona has been told to slash the budget and his extension kicks in next year. 

Raanta would be the 1st to go, I think, but you never know.  I believe Lehner and Markstrom will re-sign.  I think you're being a little harsh

on judging Andersen.  He's allowed an off-year and his numbers weren't that bad  --  and the defense in front of him is a mess.

Edited by MidnightAngel

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On 9/6/2020 at 9:45 AM, beboplar said:

Pesce is the consummate team player, and I am not in favor of trading him, period.  Even if he is damaged goods, which I have no way of knowing.  He and Slavin seem destined to spend their entire careers on the Canes.  I agree that the Leafs make some outrageous offers.  So, here's back at ya.  For many years they were asking for the farm in return for Jake Gardiner.  He was worth all they were asking right?  So, there you go, Gardiner for Anderson.  

For them to pry Hamilton from the Canes, they would need to be making a Marner dump or something of that ilk.

Hahahaha, Gardiner will go but not back to Toronto.  He has a 7-team no-trade list so he could screw some things up, but I'd look for him

to land in New Jersey, Los Angeles or Detroit.  Those teams can use his offense and his contract wouldn't hold him back from getting dealt.

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We are 6th on Pronman’s 22 and under list.

 

Svech

Necas

Bean

Suzuki

Bokk

Puistola

Geekie

Rees

Honka

Keane

 

are the top 10, we go to 12 with Legit NHL player potential. 5 more with potential NHL player rankings.

 

and we have 3 top 60 picks to add to the bunch with no graduations over the next year.

 

based on Buffalo’s list at 5, I have no idea how we are behind them. They go 8 deep with legit nhl potential. And one is Mittelstadt who was given a very good nhl player. The guy is a bust.  These rankings don’t matter but they should at least make sense.

Edited by gocanes0506

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4 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

We are 6th on Pronman’s 22 and under list.

 

Svech

Necas

Bean

Suzuki

Bokk

Puistola

Geekie

Rees

Honka

Keane

 

are the top 10, we go to 12 with Legit NHL player potential. 5 more with potential NHL player rankings.

 

and we have 3 top 60 picks to add to the bunch with no graduations over the next year.

 

based on Buffalo’s list at 5, I have no idea how we are behind them. They go 8 deep with legit nhl potential. And one is Mittelstadt who was given a very good nhl player. The guy is a bust.  These rankings don’t matter but they should at least make sense.

Sellgren did not make the list ?   he is pretty good ! 

Fensore  i can see why he would not  make the list because of his size and him being more of a rover type . 

Drury seems like he might make the list  , he is a very responsible 2 way  forward . 

Slepets might be a lot further down the list do to his  scoring   but he does have offensive scoring potential and is fast as lightning  .

Kochetkov  i think played in the vhl  mostly last year getting bounced around from team to team ,  not sure if he will make it  but his youth numbers seemed promising.

Makiniemi  seems  like he is  showing  some signs of being a potential back up for the canes  from his numbers over seas .   Not sure what kind of defense  he has in front tho .

Edited by Canesfanforever

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11 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

Sellgren did not make the list ?   he is pretty good ! 

Fensore  i can see why he would not  make the list because of his size and him being more of a rover type . 

Drury seems like he might make the list  , he is a very responsible 2 way  forward . 

Slepets might be a lot further down the list do to his  scoring   but he does have offensive scoring potential and is fast as lightning  .

Kochetkov  i think played in the vhl  mostly last year getting bounced around from team to team ,  not sure if he will make it  but his youth numbers seemed promising.

Makiniemi  seems  like he is  showing  some signs of being a potential back up for the canes  from his numbers over seas .   Not sure what kind of defense  he has in front tho .

Slepets and Makiniemi were not on the list of 17.  

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11 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

I don't think the Kuemper talk is idle chatter.  Supposedly, Arizona has been told to slash the budget and his extension kicks in next year. 

Raanta would be the 1st to go, I think, but you never know.  I believe Lehner and Markstrom will re-sign.  I think you're being a little harsh

on judging Andersen.  He's allowed an off-year and his numbers weren't that bad  --  and the defense in front of him is a mess.

On Anderson last year, using the GSAA, he was exactly average (as in only one goalie was closer to center mass average in terms of that metric in the NHL). GSAA does take in some account of the defense, but not fully. It's probably fair to say that Toronto's D was part of the issue, but the two previous years, Anderson's GSAA was markedly better with about the same level of D. 

 

But even if that was a down year, to have one's down year, still dead on average for an NHL goalie is not saying "bad". Still, I did not watch most of those games, so maybe he was better than his GSAA suggests, that is certainly possible. 

 

Even if it was a bit of a down year, the two before it were so excellent that two outstanding years and one average year would still be better than any goalie we've ever had. The main question would be the age-old, "age old" question. Anderson is 31 next month. Is that the reason for a less stellar year? If not? If he wants to come here? Yes. He does have a modified NTC. I think he can name 7 teams or something. Not sure if we'd be on that. I'm guessing he dissed us because Cam would block him, but I don't know that, but he might have us on there.

 

Kuemper. Based on GSAA, last year Kuemper was the 4th best goalie in the NHL. Only Hellebuck and Rask were signficantly better, Khudobin was a hair better, and Keumper was significantly better than #5, Ben Bishop. But it's better than that. He was also #4 the previous year, essentially tied for #2 with Vasilevskiy and Lehner, with Bishop at the top. In fact, if one combines GSAA over the past 2 seasons, Kuemper is an astonishing 41.71 goals saved above average. Only one goalie was better, Ben Bishop at 46.53. 

 

Lehner was 38.91, third best with Vasilevskiy essentially tied with him. The only knock on Kuemper would be he's just turned 30, but the contract is only two more years, so that should be fine. His deal does bump up to $4.5M, but this is still massive underpayment for arguably the second best goalie in the NHL who will save your team on average 20 less goals by himself than an average NHL goalie. 

 

I agree that Lehner and Markstrom will probably re-sign. If not? Depends on how massive the deal has to be. 

 

On Kuemper's value, put another way, around 20 less goals than last year is what he brings. With a team that should be better than last year in front of him means that so long as Keumper himself stays healthy, the playoffs are as close to a lock as can be. Nothing is certain of course, but for one single move, this one likely assures playoffs for at least the next two years IMO, and quite possibly a top 4 slot.

 

So what does it take in terms of trade cost to get Kuemper from Arizona? That would be a massive get.

 

Finally, though a Lehner or Kuemper being two of the top 4 goalies in the NHL at the moment would be the prize, an Anderson or other goalie on the list of top 10 would still bring some of that. That last 3 years Anderson would have brought on average 5 less goals. Still helps, and if he gets back to the two previous years, 12 less goals.

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Pronman's list.

 

6th is not chopped liver. The list excludes Aho now, and we traded some guys off of last year's list, and still moved up from 8 to 6. 

 

Svech and Necas are obvious, so no comment except they are already NHL high caliber and both will just get better.

 

Still interesting that Bean is #3. One of the comments below the article was effectively, "if Bean is so good why do the Canes keep investing in veteran D men?" to which Pronman replied, "fair question". In some ways Bean is the most intriguing prospect not in the NHL. I've been clear in my opinion, that you need to play him because of salary and entry level so as to trim costs to let you sign Hamilton and Svech among other moves. Also, he might be so good soon that we'll lament trading him. But then there's that dang expansion draft. Bean was named the best D man in the entire AHL. There are 31 AHL teams, not counting the rotating in and out, there are at least 6 D men/team or 186. Surely all told, over 200 AHL D men. Bean was #1. Pronman has Bean as a high end/very good NHL player in terms of prospects. 

 

Next most interesting to me was Dominick Bokk at #5 because we sort of already know that Suzuki is the top forward upside guy on the farm at #4. He lists Bokk in the same category as Suzuki: Very Good NHL player. Bokk was not here for last year's list, and since we didn't draft him, seems to fly below the radar. 

 

Then, yes, he still likes Puistola (#6) in every way except his stride. He doesn't mention his D game at all, but confirms that his skill and goal scoring define him. Notably he has him above Geekie who is next. 

 

On the lower end surprises to me:

 

He just does not have love for Jack Drury. He's ranked #12 under David Cotton. True, at least he's in the "legit NHL player" category, but I think its just that Jack Drury doesn't have much sizzle. Based on what he's done at Harvard though, it sure looks to me that he has a lot of steak. I've been waiting for David Cotton since we drafted him, and he has done well his senior year for sure and he has size. But Cotton is now 23 and just starting his AHL career. There are definitely guys who have taken that path to the NHL, but Drury is 3 years younger at 20 and producing more already. He was the #4 player in the NCAA in points/game, and did it as a sophomore. I love sizzle as much as anyone, but I think people underestimate Drury. I'd bet on a decent NHL career for Drury ahead of Cotton. 

 

Keane. Pronman has said he's biasing to high end potential (might explain Drury). And like Puistola, Pronman has had a crush on Honka's flashy skills, who he puts just ahead of Keane, who comes in at #10. But when we traded Gauthier for Keane, I was thinking Keane was the next guy up after Bean, so it just feels a little low for him. Still, the mid draft with Honka, Puistola and Rees was just so good, so I guess I get it. But if we do lose Bean, this is our next up guy probably. 

 

There is some interesting stuff about Kochetkov. I guess the bottom line: looked like a stellar draft pick, struggled last year, still has the tools. 

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I believe Bean will be traded or we move Gardiner (i doubt).  Gardiner is basically what we expect Bean to be but fast forward 5 years.  Trade Bean and get an asset that will help us win now (Kuemper, Virtanen, etc).

 

next year when this runs again we will move up.  

A. because Auston Matthews will stop holding Toronto in the top 4.  Basically Matthews and then Robertson with a couple of others.  Once Matthews falls off, Toronto will fall to the 20s.

B. Bean is the only graduate and we add 13OA and anyone else from the draft. 

C. Necas and Svech will get better

 

Hopefully Makiniemi and Kochetkov get plenty of playing time this year.  I wonder if Makiniemi comes out strong in Liiga like he did in his 7 games last season (over .930 sv percentage) that maybe we go forward.  This is an interesting to see how our European League prospects do over the first month.  That could help us decide what route to go.  Maybe Koch and Makiniemi tear up the first month in the KHL and Liiga, respectively.  We decide to take offers to trade down and get a fantastic forward instead. Maybe they both struggle and we decide that we need a true number 1 goalie prospect.

 

Side note: it sounds like Vegas has already started talking to Lehner to keep him long term.  So, he may not be available this off-season.

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2 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

I believe Bean will be traded or we move Gardiner (i doubt).  Gardiner is basically what we expect Bean to be but fast forward 5 years.  Trade Bean and get an asset that will help us win now (Kuemper, Virtanen, etc).

 

next year when this runs again we will move up.  

A. because Auston Matthews will stop holding Toronto in the top 4.  Basically Matthews and then Robertson with a couple of others.  Once Matthews falls off, Toronto will fall to the 20s.

B. Bean is the only graduate and we add 13OA and anyone else from the draft. 

C. Necas and Svech will get better

 

Hopefully Makiniemi and Kochetkov get plenty of playing time this year.  I wonder if Makiniemi comes out strong in Liiga like he did in his 7 games last season (over .930 sv percentage) that maybe we go forward.  This is an interesting to see how our European League prospects do over the first month.  That could help us decide what route to go.  Maybe Koch and Makiniemi tear up the first month in the KHL and Liiga, respectively.  We decide to take offers to trade down and get a fantastic forward instead. Maybe they both struggle and we decide that we need a true number 1 goalie prospect.

 

Side note: it sounds like Vegas has already started talking to Lehner to keep him long term.  So, he may not be available this off-season.

That would leave MAF   available if he wished to be traded  .   But I'm  thinking he wants to go back to pittsburgh .I dont know why the penguins would want him back given his  nmc  contract   , and   I doubt Francis would select him  given his age factor and the likely case  he would be more of a back up  .  

Edited by Canesfanforever

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One of the reasons why i dont like spending to the cap  is because if you have  zero money left over who is to say the habs or some other team  sending out an offer sheet to get that player ?    Last year the canes  had enough cap to match the offer for Sabastion Aho  to keep him .   But  you take a look at where things are at currently  the Canes  wont have much in return for cap  heading into next season with the flat cap .     It would make more sense  for the canes to  be wary of this fact and so should the fans  . 

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2 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

I believe Bean will be traded or we move Gardiner (i doubt).  Gardiner is basically what we expect Bean to be but fast forward 5 years.  Trade Bean and get an asset that will help us win now (Kuemper, Virtanen, etc).

 

I don't disagree it's what they might end up doing. I do disagree some on doing it. My concern is return value. Bean is a top D prospect with offensive upside who is on the verge of NHL ready if not fully ready. Fair return would be a forward prospect also about NHL ready and with top 6 upside and proven production at the AHL level or simliar.

 

Bean for Kuemper is intriguing because Kuemper is proven top 5 NHL ready now. Even though we are thick with D men, Bean is worth more than a first rounder because: 1. He's more proven 2. He's NHL ready now. He'd be a great pick up for a rebuilding team though, which Arizona might be, and he'd be a really good contract. Do you think Arizona would have to sweeten that pot or do Bean for Kuemper straight up?

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58 minutes ago, remkin said:

I don't disagree it's what they might end up doing. I do disagree some on doing it. My concern is return value. Bean is a top D prospect with offensive upside who is on the verge of NHL ready if not fully ready. Fair return would be a forward prospect also about NHL ready and with top 6 upside and proven production at the AHL level or simliar.

 

Bean for Kuemper is intriguing because Kuemper is proven top 5 NHL ready now. Even though we are thick with D men, Bean is worth more than a first rounder because: 1. He's more proven 2. He's NHL ready now. He'd be a great pick up for a rebuilding team though, which Arizona might be, and he'd be a really good contract. Do you think Arizona would have to sweeten that pot or do Bean for Kuemper straight up?

I don’t know what Arizona wants. I would assume we would have to add something to Bean. I would say a top 10 goalie with 2 more years would have good value.

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Guys , I think the Canes should consider not spending to the cap .     We  Still have Foegele  and Fleury to think about  and Who knows if their production could increase next season . 

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Waddell on extensions for Dougie and Svech. Hopefully they do happen sooner rather than later.

 

"They're important players for this organization, and it makes more sense to get to it sooner than later. There's no timetable or deadlines. They both have another year left. We have a good relationship with both players, and I fully expect both players to want to stay here."

 

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22 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Guys , I think the Canes should consider not spending to the cap .     We  Still have Foegele  and Fleury to think about  and Who knows if their production could increase next season . 


It makes no difference what either of them do next season until they’re signed to contracts for this coming season.

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