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Offseason Talk 2020

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Somehow I knew people were going to focus on the Laine part of what I posted. 
 

That is known and is old news.

 

I mainly posted because apparently we have interest in Jake DeBrusk.

 

Being a recent 1st round pick by the Bruins and showing that he can play/produce, I would think the asking price would be high.

 

I doubt this goes anywhere but could be re-visited depending on Boston’s cap situation. I think DaBrusk is an RFA.

 

 

.

Edited by Kyrule

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Pierre LeBrun said the Oilers may have interest in Mrazek as a “plan B” if they can’t acquire another goalie through trade/free agency.

 

I’m sure it is just more noise that will result in nothing but there it is. 

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49 minutes ago, Kyrule said:

Pierre LeBrun said the Oilers may have interest in Mrazek as a “plan B” if they can’t acquire another goalie through trade/free agency.

 

I’m sure it is just more noise that will result in nothing but there it is. 

I think they want to trade Athanassiou  for  Mrazek .    Funny they wanted him  and now they dont  .    Makes me think there is more to the story  than not . 

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5 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

I think they want to trade Athanassiou  for  Mrazek .    Funny they wanted him  and now they dont  .    Makes me think there is more to the story  than not . 

Kind of like our Erik Haula situation with less clarity.

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Wonder if there is any doable package that could get their first rounder? I suppose if we threw Bean in...but I'm not keen on that.

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7 minutes ago, remkin said:

Wonder if there is any doable package that could get their first rounder? I suppose if we threw Bean in...but I'm not keen on that.

NJ may be our best shot at 20 for Bean

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Also, it is being reported that we will kick the tires on Holtby when he becomes a free agent.

 

Again, just throwing out what I’m hearing/reading.

 

I think he ends up out West, just a gut feeling. If not, maybe Buffalo.

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I know I've put this down before, but for me, just say no to Holtby. Goalies over 30 with an impressive past resume, but 2 or more recent bad years? Not an upgrade.

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1 hour ago, gocanes0506 said:

NJ may be our best shot at 20 for Bean

Outside of the whole issue of the expansion draft? I don't want to go that low. Bean was #13 overall and he is just coming of NHL age after we developed him. I don't really even want to trade him to the Oilers for #14, but given the expansion draft and our depth at D and the committee seeming to never stop finding more D men, I'd probably do it. 

 

Just for fun, using Tulsky's "what does it cost to trade up?" table, and on paper only, and for entertainment purposes only since I guess the Oilers might not be interested, if we traded Bean for #14, we could package #13 and #14 to move up to #3 and take Byfield or Steutzle. And Ottawa might* do it because they need to rebuild and they'd end up with 4 first round picks in this deep draft: 5, 13, 14, 28. 

 

*though probably not

 

OK, that isn't happening, but it would be fun though.

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15 minutes ago, remkin said:

Outside of the whole issue of the expansion draft? I don't want to go that low. Bean was #13 overall and he is just coming of NHL age after we developed him. I don't really even want to trade him to the Oilers for #14, but given the expansion draft and our depth at D and the committee seeming to never stop finding more D men, I'd probably do it. 

 

Just for fun, using Tulsky's "what does it cost to trade up?" table, and on paper only, and for entertainment purposes only since I guess the Oilers might not be interested, if we traded Bean for #14, we could package #13 and #14 to move up to #3 and take Byfield or Steutzle. And Ottawa might* do it because they need to rebuild and they'd end up with 4 first round picks in this deep draft: 5, 13, 14, 28. 

 

*though probably not

 

OK, that isn't happening, but it would be fun though.

I understand that 20 might seem low for Bean but he is 4 years post draft with basically no experience. His value is similar to his draft spot but the 2020 draft is stronger than 2016.

Edited by gocanes0506

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1 hour ago, Kyrule said:

 If not, maybe Buffalo.

That’s cold... literally and figuratively.  No Stanley Cup winning goalie deserves that kind of banishment 😬

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I’d deal Bean for a 1st in this year’s draft very easily. He’s never going to get a shot in Raleigh, so why not sell high on him. NJD makes the most sense with the rumors that are out there. No way EDM gives up 14OA for him. 
 

If CAR could grab 18 or 20OA, then I’d actually be ok with the gamble on Askarov at 13. Knowing they’d also have a Holloway, Mercer, Amirov, Mysak, Zary, Lapierre, etc. type prospect in addition to the goalie would make me feel a bit better about the risk. I still want Jarvis though and hope he’s the pick at 13. Jarvis + one of those other forwards would be (Borat voice) very nice.

 

I also like them to pick up a D or two in the 2nd rd. A guy like O’Rourke or Cormier (if he slips) would more than make up for the loss of Bean imho.

Edited by spockrock

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Well I would expect at the rate we are moving the possibility of watching a game in person will be sometime in 2022.  But we are up to  about 1300 allowed to attend so I guess that will be profitable.

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7 hours ago, spockrock said:

I’d deal Bean for a 1st in this year’s draft very easily. He’s never going to get a shot in Raleigh, so why not sell high on him. NJD makes the most sense with the rumors that are out there. No way EDM gives up 14OA for him. 
 

 

 

I think the quick answer on why not to do this is simple: Bean will be an NHL player as evidenced by receiving the Top AHL defenseman award this year..  He is behind a current backlog yes, but he looks like money "in the bank" to be a top 6 blue liner for someone in the NHL.

 

Reasons not to trade: 2008 - 1st Round 14th overall pick = Zach Boychuk. 

or 2011 - 1st Round 12th overall pick = Ryan Murphy 

 

So its not impossible to envision you may end up with Zach Boychuk/Ryan Murphy for a Calder Cup winning, AHL Eddie Shore Award winning (top defenseman) defenseman.

 

Suddenly it looks a little less apetizing from where I sit.  Trading Bean for current assets (already in the NHL or in a package to get a top 5 draftee) is something I could stomach.  A 14th?  No way in my view.

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1 hour ago, snuffy72 said:

Has someone already mentioned that Henrik Lundqvist has been bought out by the Rangers?

He has .   He is free to go to another team or  retire .  If the King   does intend to play another season  expect it to be a team that can contend for the cup .

 

Aves , Flames   ,  Isles ,  Canes  could be possible locations.  

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1 hour ago, one-timer said:

 

I think the quick answer on why not to do this is simple: Bean will be an NHL player as evidenced by receiving the Top AHL defenseman award this year..  He is behind a current backlog yes, but he looks like money "in the bank" to be a top 6 blue liner for someone in the NHL.

 

Reasons not to trade: 2008 - 1st Round 14th overall pick = Zach Boychuk. 

or 2011 - 1st Round 12th overall pick = Ryan Murphy 

 

So its not impossible to envision you may end up with Zach Boychuk/Ryan Murphy for a Calder Cup winning, AHL Eddie Shore Award winning (top defenseman) defenseman.

 

Suddenly it looks a little less apetizing from where I sit.  Trading Bean for current assets (already in the NHL or in a package to get a top 5 draftee) is something I could stomach.  A 14th?  No way in my view.

 

I hear what you're saying. I suspect that the Werenskis, Provorovs, and Hughes of the league have skewed peoples subconscious expectations to the point that what used to be fairly normal development now looks disappointing. I've heard some non-Canes fans label Bean a bust because he hasn't been given a permanent spot on the Canes yet, lol.  I agree with your point that Bean's successful development to this point should boost his value beyond the 13th spot where we took him (ignoring deviation in draft year depth). I guess the one other factor that needs to be considered is the expansion draft; a decent current player for Bean isn't likely to be exempt, whereas a draft pick means one more player we can protect. 

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Metro  only  teams  area of need  to improve on . 

 

Caps -  Bottom 6 depth   =    They  have the scoring power  on top  but their bottom 6 looked   really weak   to a lot of teams .

Islanders -   Better  defense   =  They play a very  defensive structured  game  but their  actual defense is lacking  in terms of  real shut down guys  within that system. 

Flyers -  Bottom  6  defense   =   They  have really great scorers   on top  but once you get past it  it's all bricks   down the road . 

Rangers - Center   Depth  =  Almost everywhere on that team is a threat  , but except at  center  , Mika  and Strome  are great  but after that there is a drop off in talent . 

Jackets -  Top 6 Scorers   =    When they lost the bread man   it really showed   this year  ,  if they only had  some  guys to come in to put the biscuit in the basket  .

Devils -  Top 6 scorers  =  Similar to the Jackets ,  Nico  and Jack   are going to grow into great  offensive threats in the future   but in the mean time they need help scoring .

Penguins - Future   =   Case in point  what i see  with  the penguins is like watching the history channel of what happened to carolina  . They need to fire  Rutherford  and ban him

HURRICANES  -  Goalies =    It's been a position that has been ignored for way to long  and  you can have a rocking offense and defense   but if you dont have a goalie   you are pretty much  Cinderella  with out  your fairy godmother ! 

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10 hours ago, one-timer said:

 

I think the quick answer on why not to do this is simple: Bean will be an NHL player as evidenced by receiving the Top AHL defenseman award this year..  He is behind a current backlog yes, but he looks like money "in the bank" to be a top 6 blue liner for someone in the NHL.

 

Reasons not to trade: 2008 - 1st Round 14th overall pick = Zach Boychuk. 

or 2011 - 1st Round 12th overall pick = Ryan Murphy 

 

So its not impossible to envision you may end up with Zach Boychuk/Ryan Murphy for a Calder Cup winning, AHL Eddie Shore Award winning (top defenseman) defenseman.

 

Suddenly it looks a little less apetizing from where I sit.  Trading Bean for current assets (already in the NHL or in a package to get a top 5 draftee) is something I could stomach.  A 14th?  No way in my view.


Why wasn’t Bean in the NHL when the Canes sorely needed D last season? Why has he only played less than 20 total mins in 2 NHL games? Do you actually think his style of play will mesh with how Brind’Amour coaches? Do you actually think Brind’Amour will play him over Slavin, Fleury, Skjei or Gardiner? Are you willing to lose him for nothing come the expansion draft?

 

You take a 2020 1st for him and run.

 

Nedeljkovic won the top AHL goalie award last year. How’d that work out the Canes this year?

 

AHL achievements are nice, but certainly not a portent of NHL success.

Edited by spockrock

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The value of a magic Bean vs. a magic bean. OK, I'll probably regret resurrecting that phrase, but it was right there.

 

Seriously though, the value of Bean is an interesting discussion. I think it is anyways. Part of why is that I really can see both sides of it even though I am very slow to trade him. Also, he might be another exception to the rule. Its difficult to go against one's preconceived ideas, even if they're not aligned with conventional wisdom. It's at least a valuable exercise to look at the other side of the coin.

 

My view is that fans tend to undervalue some types of prospects. Generally those prospects that don't come in already on fire or catch fire very early: such as the Svech and Aho types. Just about everyone else, it is very hard to try to project them. They are under the radar, doing their thing in lower leagues. But some prospects that become very good NHL players develop slower than others. D men and goalies, already discussed to death in the draft thread, are known to take longer. Sure, if you're Cale Makar and flashy as heck, it's different, but, like Svech, those guys are rare, and not really developed out of view anyways. So there are guys who just take longer. I've been defending Fleury for a while on here. 

 

In Carolina, the situation is even harder for AHL prospects as there have only been a few of them that made it through to solid NHL careers. (As an aside, this was indirectly mentioned as a reason to go to the Chicago Wolves with our AHL team). I remember reading multiple posts on here that Necas was not that great because he went back to the AHL. Really, on D, Fleury is the first one in forever to spend a good amount of time in the AHL and then look like he's got a long career ahead that I can remember. Faulk dipped his toes in the AHL, but probably rushed in a way (another side of this coin, rushing guys rather than letting them marinate in the AHL). 

 

Then there is the "first round" bias. That is, that every first rounder is a precious gem, soon to be the next Necas. But 50% of first rounders flame out, and most of those come from the back half of the first round. We think of the draft in rounds, but pick #32 is statistically exactly the same as pick #31, while the latter is a "first rounder". This is why I'm more hesitant to trade Bean for a late first rounder. Their odds are closer to second round odds which are closer to 1/4. For every Necas there is a Boychuk. 

 

Finally on my bias side of things, no matter who we picked at say #20, even if they eventually become decent NHL players, they will take 2-4 years to be NHL ready, especially if they play D. Bean is ready now. We've done the developing. AHL defensman of the years: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Kronwell, Justins Shultz. 

 

Why isn't Bean in the NHL? Have you seen our Defense? The Committee can't leave it alone. Every offseason they pick up one or more veteran D men for an already stacked D. Last year alone they added Gardiner, Skjei and Vataten. Also, Brind'Amour is very nervous with non proven D men. Look how long we slow played Fleury. But using Bean in the bubble playoffs when we were sitting veterans would have been nuts. Not doing it means very little. And this has generally been the problem. In the past, pretty marginal D men got a taste, now we are so deep that it's nearly impossible.

 

I have not seen much of Bean lately TBH. When he played in development camp years ago he was head and shoulders better than other guys. When he played in the NHL camp later he looked dazed and out of place. Winning AHL D man of the year suggests that his game has come together.  Is he a future long term NHL player? 

 

I don't know. I like to pride myself on trying to keep up with the prospects, but really, keeping up with AHL D men requires watching games. Stats are not enough. So in the end....it's a matter of how good the guys watching him think he is. 

 

Finally, we need bottom pair guys on cheap contracts in this flat cap era. 

 

NEXT: why I see the other side of the coin.

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4 hours ago, spockrock said:

Nedeljkovic won the top AHL goalie award last year. How’d that work out the Canes this year?

Explain this for me?   He play 3 games this year.  He was 1 and 2,  His 2 losses did stink(PHI,DAL) but we only scored 1 goal in each of those.  Not shabby teams. So how would we really know much ?

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OK, so I think that especially D prospects need to see a long stretch of NHL action to know if they have the right stuff. So, they will be undervalued unless they are "hot" prospects that everyone highly anticipates. I also think we need to have bottom pair guys on cheap contracts and entry level is pretty cheap. So, we will never get full value trading a guy like Bean right before he gets a taste of the NHL. 

 

Weeeeeeeelll...

 

Yes, there definitely is another side to that coin. 

 

I went back and looked at the winners of the AHL D man of the year. It is a very mixed bag. Some guys won it "late" in their AHL careers, and their NHL window was much more firmly shut than Bean's, but even taking them out, while there are the Johnny Boychucks and Justin Shultz's, there were more guys who were up and down and never stuck in the NHL or haven't yet. That list is in fact mixed with stalwart NHL D men, but more of them not. So, IMO it's good sign because Bean, while on the far end, is still in a development window pre NHL, especially with a super deep D ahead of him. BUT it's not any kind of proof that Bean will be good in the NHL. 

 

It is possible that Bean ends up being a bouncer that pops up and down, though waivers could be an issue. Or ends up being a marginal bottom pair guy. If so, he might be worth trading for a late first rounder, even aside from the "other issues". In that case, his maximal value could actually be now. 

 

Then there is that NHL depth we have. We have too many NHL D men to allow a guy to pop up. We also have some development depth with Keane and Honka and others. We also have some AHL call up depth if we traded Bean and needed a body. Further, even though he should take less time to get his NHL sense since he's more AHL developed, it's still going to take 100 NHL games at least for him to really be hitting his stride.

 

Also, I slot Bean initially in as a cheap bottom pair. But keeping him for just that reason is not worth not getting a first round dart. Keeping him only really makes sense if we think he can be at least a middle pair guy with offensive upside. That is a higher bar.

 

Then there is that stupid expansion draft. Trading Bean for a pick saves a potential asset. This is a factor. 

 

So IMO it comes down to this: how good do the watchers paid by the team think Bean is projected to the NHL? If they are very high on him, don't trade him for a #20 pick. If they are not, then probably trade him for a #20 pick. This year is different though. I would say that even if they are very high on him, with our D stacked and the expansion draft looming, trade him for a higher pick than #20. And to hedge even further, given the stack ahead of him and the expansion draft, and that there are elite upside guys likely to fall to #20, while it would be painful...I would not be too upset if we did it...see? Interesting because it's hard to know. 

 

I guess we'll see.

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One last thing. We could also trade Bean for a "like" forward prospect. A guy who has similar projected NHL game, but a forward. I've mentioned LA as a possibility, and I'm sure there are others. The list will be shortened though by the expansion draft, since we would want a protected guy for him. Which makes that part of the trade uneven: protected for unprotected. That would limit things to teams who are such a mess that they have an open slot for protecting Bean. Technically this applies to a draft pick to though, and the teams picking later have more concerns about protecting guys. I'm not sure of the list of teams who have so few guys to protect that they have an open "protected" slot. Probably not that many.

 

This suggests to me, that while the expansion draft, (along with our packed D), make a Bean trade more palatable, it also makes it more difficult to accomplish.

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5 hours ago, spockrock said:


Why wasn’t Bean in the NHL when the Canes sorely needed D last season? Why has he only played less than 20 total mins in 2 NHL games? Do you actually think his style of play will mesh with how Brind’Amour coaches? Do you actually think Brind’Amour will play him over Slavin, Fleury, Skjei or Gardiner? Are you willing to lose him for nothing come the expansion draft?

 

You take a 2020 1st for him and run.

 

Nedeljkovic won the top AHL goalie award last year. How’d that work out the Canes this year?

 

AHL achievements are nice, but certainly not a portent of NHL success.

Fleury  a few years back was the AHL  defense man of the year  also .    There is  time in the NHL  that players need to have in order to adjust to the speed and skill level  at a way higher level than what the AHL  provides .   I dont recall  Sabation Aho  spending  much time  at all in the ahl  do you ?

 

Needless to say Francis did select  Bean and he did it with  Bill peters system in mind .   Not  Brind'amours  obviously .   so  Is Jake Bean ready for the riggers of a very tight schedule  of 82 games ?    Who knows .    What  Brind'Amour wants out of his players is Reliability  in their own zone .  If they can't provide that to the team then they are not worth  ice time with the team .    Bean  Has all the potential of being an Elite player  but it is  on the low side of it  panning out much to the degree of  Fleury  ,  Difference is   Fleury is a big boy that can skate like the wind and  Bean is  not  that fast or  a big boy .  

Edited by Canesfanforever

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