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Offseason Talk 2020

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10 hours ago, AmxCanes said:

  I just worry about giving Hamilton a really long term deal. Yes he had a great year. But has also had not so great to be let go from 2 other teams. I cant see a big raise with the flat cap. But would he, like a lot of players likely take a 1 or 2 year deal to make more when cap goes up? 

  Would it be great to keep him, yes. But also have to think of the other players coming up for resigning. I would rather have 3 or 4 good to really good players than 1 superstar and 3 4th liners

 

Based on everything I've read, Boston and Calgary moved Hamilton not because of his play but because he "didn't fit" their organizations personality wise. That's clearly not the situation with the Canes.

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12 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

Ron Francis  would eye ball Hamilton  with a tearful glee in  his  eye   if left unprotected .    Simply something the Canes can not risk .   Also  you have to think about  why it is important  to Extend Hamilton  now  instead of later .    The  Expansion draft comes after the 2022  playoffs .  Hamilton's contract ends in 2021 .     Extending   Hamilton now  means the canes can then focus on  other areas  that might need improving on  via  trade ,   ufa signings or  potential Draft selections . 

 

Also there is the manner of Extending Svechnikov   .     Those are the 2  key areas  the canes need to put all of their focus on .   Once they have accomplished that then they  can turn their attention to other areas  that need addressing . 

In the world of no Ifs, Ands, or Buts, signing Svechnikov is the Numero Uno priority of the Carolina Canes.  He is a bigger star in the making than Aho.  I am not saying I don't want 100% for Hamilton to return after his contract expires, but signing him early is not the smart play, IMO.  If they do get a deal done with Svechnikov in this off season, then money will be a little tight to meet Hamilton's needs until the deletion of some unwanted contracts we have all referenced (Gardiner/Nino/Dzingel) happens.  My suggestion about how to handle Hamilton is how the successful teams in baseball do it.  The Yankees do this all the time.  There is some unspoken financial incentive offered to keep Hamilton involved with the Canes.  If he is a free agent at the season end, he does not have to be protected by the Canes, because he is not under contract, is that correct?  And thus he is not eligible to be plucked in the expansion draft, am I correct?  I don't think you can do that to a free agent, it's probably against the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

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The idea of letting Dougie go to UFA and not protecting him is interesting, but feels pretty risky. He can then listen to offers too. We can't, I'm pretty sure, sign anything, so it would be a risk of him leaving. I guess we could have an agreement in principle, but it would also leave him technically hanging. 

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20 hours ago, remkin said:

I'm reading a bit into Dougy's brain, but I think he'll take less that top value to stay here. We can't low ball him, but a fair negotiation should land him. This is a guy with tons of talent, but historically difficult time fitting into other organizations. He really seems to have found a natural fit for him here. We want him, the fans love him, his team seems to love him and he them. He could well bring us our first Norris before he's done. And he gets to play for Brind'Amour and be on a rising team. Seems like this should be able to happen.

Professional athletes have a limited shelf life/career to create financial stability.  Many use their stardom to continue earning in some other capacity ranging from coaching to broadcasting, etc.  Athletes who play in large media markets really have a leg up in that area.  Can you recall the media frenzy and the impact on USA hockey that resulted from Wayne Gretzky's trade from Edmonton to Los Angeles?  

My point is that not many (any) top free agent hockey talents come knocking on the door in Carolina.  If his post playing career is one issue in his mind, signing on with a big media market team in the NY or Chicago or LA area might be in his mind.  Putting Carolina on equal footing with the media giants IS the "home town discount" you refer to.  Maybe he will accept a few pasos less from the Canes, but not too many.  

I would remain patient and let this thing play out.  Definitely go sign Svechnikov and try to get out from under a few unwanted deals.  You have to like the position the Canes are in right now.

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14 minutes ago, beboplar said:

In the world of no Ifs, Ands, or Buts, signing Svechnikov is the Numero Uno priority of the Carolina Canes.  He is a bigger star in the making than Aho.  I am not saying I don't want 100% for Hamilton to return after his contract expires, but signing him early is not the smart play, IMO.  If they do get a deal done with Svechnikov in this off season, then money will be a little tight to meet Hamilton's needs until the deletion of some unwanted contracts we have all referenced (Gardiner/Nino/Dzingel) happens.  My suggestion about how to handle Hamilton is how the successful teams in baseball do it.  The Yankees do this all the time.  There is some unspoken financial incentive offered to keep Hamilton involved with the Canes.  If he is a free agent at the season end, he does not have to be protected by the Canes, because he is not under contract, is that correct?  And thus he is not eligible to be plucked in the expansion draft, am I correct?  I don't think you can do that to a free agent, it's probably against the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

If I'm not mistaken last expansion draft rules were such that Vegas was able to negotiate with every team's pending UFAs 3 days before UFA market is opened and if Vegas agreed with term with that pending UFA it went to Vegas and also counted as a player taken from that team during expansion draft.

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4 minutes ago, remkin said:

The idea of letting Dougie go to UFA and not protecting him is interesting, but feels pretty risky. He can then listen to offers too. We can't, I'm pretty sure, sign anything, so it would be a risk of him leaving. I guess we could have an agreement in principle, but it would also leave him technically hanging. 

Exactly.  The successful teams do this in MLB al the time with free agents.  I have followed the Yankees since 1960, and no team has been as active as they have in free agency since it became a part of the game in the early '70's.  They had a standing policy of not discussing renewals of contracts until the season ended and their free agents became available.  Their are logistical reasons for this, mostly 40 man roster management to protect their prospects from being plucked in the Rule 5 draft.  This runs parallel to what will happen with the expansion draft.  The Canes have to bank on the fact that Hamilton likes living and playing there.  I believe after 2 failed marriages that to be the case.  Then they have to expose themselves to a certain level of risk.  The reward is being able to protect a 3rd defenseman (not named Hamilton), specifically Fleury.  I see Fleury as a guy moving towards stardom.  Big, willing to make the big hits, sound defensively, and someone we want on this team (along with Slaving and Pesce) long term.  I don't want to lose any of those 3, and taking the risk on Hamilton is the way to manage that.

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6 minutes ago, Bonivan said:

If I'm not mistaken last expansion draft rules were such that Vegas was able to negotiate with every team's pending UFAs 3 days before UFA market is opened and if Vegas agreed with term with that pending UFA it went to Vegas and also counted as a player taken from that team during expansion draft.

Thanks.  If that is again the case, then I am willing to take that risk.  Come to an unwritten agreement with Hamilton with inducement that promises to get his signature on a contract after the expansion draft AND allows them to protect Fleury.

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21 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Thanks.  If that is again the case, then I am willing to take that risk.  Come to an unwritten agreement with Hamilton with inducement that promises to get his signature on a contract after the expansion draft AND allows them to protect Fleury.

But that's the thing you are not seeing ,  Hamiltons  contract is  up  the following season  the 2020-2021   year ,    The Expansion draft  will not happen until the end of the  2022  playoffs .    That means    after the 2021  season  him being a UFA  he would then  be allowed to sign with any team .    Which means  any team @beboplar just so you know . 

If he  were to sign with any other team in that year    that means   Carolina would have lost him and  there is no way  we would get him back .   Which also means  the team that did  get him   would protect  Hamilton  from  seattle .   Now if the Canes  signed   Hamilton   and left him  as you said unprotected you  could bet  Seattle would  snag him up regardless of what you think .    That means in 2022  he would be theirs if  the contract the canes  were to sign him for just  1 year .  Why even risk it ?            I dont  understand your logic at all . 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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I don't think signing Svech and Dougie is mutually exclusive at all. It does raise the question though, what Svech will need to be given. IMO he will breakout this next season, depending on how that thing happens, and will be a bonefide superstar when he hits RFA. So, in two years what will Svech require? 

 

Aho got $8.4M. Rantanen got $9.2M. Draisaitl got $8.5, but that will be 4 years old. Marner got $10.89M. McDavid $12.5M. Eichel $10M. But those 3 plus Austin Matthews at $11.6M are the the top of the scale. 

 

I really have no clue. Covid and flat cap and potentially empty arenas could really affect things downward in what was expected previously to be moving up with the new TV deal. If I'm a player, I'm thinking bridge deal probably. Or, like Aho, get a nice 5 year deal. To me that's about perfect. He locks up $42M, so he's rich for life even if he has a catastrophic injury. But he's also tee'd up for a huge payday as the new TV deal and cap go up in a few years and he's a UFA at 27-ish years old. He can easily sign an 8 year monster deal taking him to 34, worth well over $100M as he decided how to wind it down. Not bad for 34. 

 

Anyhoo, we are better off getting Svech locked down, but that will probably cost us. How much though? I don't know, but....

 

If he has the monster year we expect and puts up say 90-110 points? That's Mitch Marner territory and better than Eichel. He's going to come in under McDavid, and probably Matthews, but not by much. If we want to lock Svech down for 5-8 years, we're probably talking in the neighborhood of $10M AAV, maybe more if the term is longer. One has to try to imagine where the cap will be in say 6 years, and what the top dogs will be getting then. 

 

So, I'm thinking $10-10.5M. I know, Aho "only" got $8.4M, but Svech was the #2 overall pick and started right out of the box at 18. He's ramped up production and unlike many of our second tier guys, also produces in the playoffs. And the Leafs payment of Marner and Matthew doesn't help. Maybe $11M. I have to think McDavid keeps things below $12M for us. I'm going with $10.5M for say a 6 year deal, but 8 if he wants it. 

 

My guess is Svech would be fine with a bridge deal for a good deal less. 2-3 years at say $7.5M. But man would we have to pay him after that as Covid will (crosses fingers) not be an issue, and TV kicks in and the cap starts making up for lost time. And he'd have UFA to hold out against us.

 

Am I off? What thinks others?

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2 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

But that's the thing you are not seeing ,  Hamiltons  contract is  up  the following season  the 2020-2021   year ,    The Expansion draft  will not happen until the end of the  2022  playoffs .    That means    after the 2021  season  him being a UFA  he would then  be allowed to sign with any team .    Which means  any team @beboplar just so you know . 

If he  were to sign with any other team in that year    that means   Carolina would have lost him and  there is no way  we would get him back .   Which also means  the team that did  get him   would protect  Hamilton  from  seattle .   Now if the Canes  signed   Hamilton   and left him  as you said unprotected you  could bet  Seattle would  snag him up regardless of what you think .    That means in 2022  he would be theirs if  the contract was for 1 year .  Why even risk it ?

There is the thing you are not seeing.  Hamilton is a UFA the year of the expansion draft.  Seattle's first year in the league is 21-22.  I.e their first off-season is after the 20-21 season (next season) which includes expansion draft, FA signings, draft. etc.

Edited by gocanes0506

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1 minute ago, gocanes0506 said:

There is the thing you are not seeing.  Hamilton is a UFA the year of the expansion draft.  Seattle's first year in the league is 21-22.  I.e their first off-season is after the 20-21 season (next season) which includes expansion draft, FA signings, draft. etc.

Wrong , Seattle comes into the league of  2022 - 2023 

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2 minutes ago, remkin said:

I don't think signing Svech and Dougie is mutually exclusive at all. It does raise the question though, what Svech will need to be given. IMO he will breakout this next season, depending on how that thing happens, and will be a bonefide superstar when he hits RFA. So, in two years what will Svech require? 

 

Aho got $8.4M. Rantanen got $9.2M. Draisaitl got $8.5, but that will be 4 years old. Marner got $10.89M. McDavid $12.5M. Eichel $10M. But those 3 plus Austin Matthews at $11.6M are the the top of the scale. 

 

I really have no clue. Covid and flat cap and potentially empty arenas could really affect things downward in what was expected previously to be moving up with the new TV deal. If I'm a player, I'm thinking bridge deal probably. Or, like Aho, get a nice 5 year deal. To me that's about perfect. He locks up $42M, so he's rich for life even if he has a catastrophic injury. But he's also tee'd up for a huge payday as the new TV deal and cap go up in a few years and he's a UFA at 27-ish years old. He can easily sign an 8 year monster deal taking him to 34, worth well over $100M as he decided how to wind it down. Not bad for 34. 

 

Anyhoo, we are better off getting Svech locked down, but that will probably cost us. How much though? I don't know, but....

 

If he has the monster year we expect and puts up say 90-110 points? That's Mitch Marner territory and better than Eichel. He's going to come in under McDavid, and probably Matthews, but not by much. If we want to lock Svech down for 5-8 years, we're probably talking in the neighborhood of $10M AAV, maybe more if the term is longer. One has to try to imagine where the cap will be in say 6 years, and what the top dogs will be getting then. 

 

So, I'm thinking $10-10.5M. I know, Aho "only" got $8.4M, but Svech was the #2 overall pick and started right out of the box at 18. He's ramped up production and unlike many of our second tier guys, also produces in the playoffs. And the Leafs payment of Marner and Matthew doesn't help. Maybe $11M. I have to think McDavid keeps things below $12M for us. I'm going with $10.5M for say a 6 year deal, but 8 if he wants it. 

 

My guess is Svech would be fine with a bridge deal for a good deal less. 2-3 years at say $7.5M. But man would we have to pay him after that as Covid will (crosses fingers) not be an issue, and TV kicks in and the cap starts making up for lost time. And he'd have UFA to hold out against us.

 

Am I off? What thinks others?

if Svech wants that much he is going to need to be a 100 point player next season.  Even then, I doubt we go that high.  People are crying Marner is 2 million overpaid.  we'll go the bridge route at the higher 6.5-7.5 million range before giving him 10 million.  TBH, I feel that is the smartest route. you get a player from 18 to potentially 32 that way.  Either way, I would guess its a 8-8.5 million contract.  if we go 8.  

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21 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

Wrong , Seattle comes into the league of  2022 - 2023 

wrong.

 

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/29524234/seattle-kraken-take-ice-2021-22-nhl-season

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/seattle-kraken/seattle-kraken-meet-nhls-32nd-team-coming-2021

 

any other sources you want? 

Edited by gocanes0506

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3 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

wrong.

Wait ,  they changed the date again ?  Originally  it was going to be 21-22  season  then  because of Covid happened   they said 22 -23 .    They changed it back to 21-22 ?  What is going on NHL ? 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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1 minute ago, Canesfanforever said:

Wait ,  they changed the date again ?  Originally  it was going to be 21-22  season  then  because of Covid happened   they said 22 -23 .    They changed it back to 21-22 ?  What is going on NHL ? 

never once changed

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Okay well that benefits the Canes  more in regards to the Hamilton deal  but I still would not test   leaving him  unprotected  unless we knew for  sure   he would not sign  in seattle  if  selected . 

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31 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Professional athletes have a limited shelf life/career to create financial stability.  Many use their stardom to continue earning in some other capacity ranging from coaching to broadcasting, etc.  Athletes who play in large media markets really have a leg up in that area.  Can you recall the media frenzy and the impact on USA hockey that resulted from Wayne Gretzky's trade from Edmonton to Los Angeles?  

My point is that not many (any) top free agent hockey talents come knocking on the door in Carolina.  If his post playing career is one issue in his mind, signing on with a big media market team in the NY or Chicago or LA area might be in his mind.  Putting Carolina on equal footing with the media giants IS the "home town discount" you refer to.  Maybe he will accept a few pasos less from the Canes, but not too many.  

I would remain patient and let this thing play out.  Definitely go sign Svechnikov and try to get out from under a few unwanted deals.  You have to like the position the Canes are in right now.

Dougy seems to be a unique athlete. Sure, everyone is different, but Dougy seems to be really different. Not in a bad way, but in a way that doesn't seem to work in at least his two previous teams, including a pretty big market team in Boston and a Canadian market team in Calgary. He has already earned around $38M in his career when this deal ends. His new deal will be at least $8M over 8 years if he wants it. That would be just under $100M in career earnings without any endorsements or anything else. 

 

I do agree that we are not a draw for lots of high end UFA's. However, once here, I do think guys see the light. Not all of them. For the single guy who wants the bright lights and big city, no, but for some very much. Raleigh is always listed near the top of Best Places lists, and has just enough to offer guys who don't want to live downtown Manhattan. 

 

Dougy seems to fit in so well with this group. All smiles and pranks. I just have to think after years feeling like he doesn't fit in, this has to feel as good as anything he's experienced in the NHL anyways. On top of fitting in, he's deeply appreciated for his play by his team, coach and fans. And as if that isn't enough, he's on a winning team that is also on the rise with young talent and a deep farm system. Nothing is certain, but the prospects for success for this team over the next 5-8 years looks pretty good. 

 

So, do you give all that up for a new team that may put you back into the not fitting in and a few more million to a $100M total? Maybe. But I don't think so.

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4 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

I heard  they changed the date Because they thought due to Covid   .   I see now  it's back to it's original   date . 

where did you hear such things?  A quick Google search which was beneficial before my previous three posts revealed that they were starting in 2021-22 and there isnt a mention 4 pages into a search of "Seattle Kraken change their season start to 22-23."  A change like that would cause more issues than deciding to cancel next season because we cant have fans.  Meaning news of a potential change would be widely discussed and easily found.

Edited by gocanes0506

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1 minute ago, gocanes0506 said:

where did you hear such things?  A quick Google search which was beneficial before my previous three posts revealed that they were starting in 2021-22 and there isnt a mention 4 pages into a search of "Seattle Kraken change their season start to 22-23."  A change like that would cause more issues than deciding to cancel next season because we cant have fans.  Meaning news of a potential change would be widely discussed and easily found.

I saw it  on tv .   yeah go figure  . 

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6 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

Wait ,  they changed the date again ?  Originally  it was going to be 21-22  season  then  because of Covid happened   they said 22 -23 .    They changed it back to 21-22 ?

 

Originally they were to play beginning in 2020/21 season. That was changed to 2021/22. As far as I know that is still the date

Quote

Seattle has been accepted by the NHL as the League's 32nd franchise. Play will begin in the 2021-22 NHL Season. WHY WAS THE SEASON START DATE CHANGED FROM 2020 TO 2021? Fans were the most important factor in the 2021 decision.

 

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Just now, OBXer said:

 

Originally they were to play beginning in 2020/21 season. That was changed to 2021/22. As far as I know that is still the date

 

yea the original 20-21 season would have been so much better for us. We would havent to protect Geekie or Svech.  

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I think the confusion might be over the draft because the arena won't be ready until Sept 2021

Quote

The delay, the Times claims, also means Seattle will not host its expansion draft or the 2021 NHL Draft.

 

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