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LakeLivin

Offseason Talk 2020

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59 minutes ago, gocanes0506 said:

if Svech wants that much he is going to need to be a 100 point player next season.  Even then, I doubt we go that high.  People are crying Marner is 2 million overpaid.  we'll go the bridge route at the higher 6.5-7.5 million range before giving him 10 million.  TBH, I feel that is the smartest route. you get a player from 18 to potentially 32 that way.  Either way, I would guess its a 8-8.5 million contract.  if we go 8.  

 

With the confession that I have not done a deep dive on this, and I'm just guessing, and I could be way off, I think $8.5M for an 8 year deal would be a pretty good deal for us. I mean lock that down tomorrow if you can. I'm not even projecting a 100 point season to say that either, though Svech is capable of it already IMO, a lot would have to go right including top line time. 

 

But Aho got $8.4M for a 5 year deal. In today's climate, more years equals more AAV as players look down the road to a big cap bump eventually. Svech is at least Aho level. He's arguably a touch better, but then he's not a center. 

 

Aho in his same post draft year, put up 49 points in a full 82 game season (.60 ppg), and no playoffs. Svech put up 61 points in 68 games (.90 ppg) and now two playoff runs with 12 points and 9 goals in 15 games.  OK, OK, that's really one angle. Yes, Aho did complete his final RFA year at a ppg and 12 points in 15 playoff games. Svech has not quite hit that yet. Also it's is tough to compare straight up since Svech played in the NHL at 18, and is frame-shifted vs. Aho in terms of NHL years vs. post draft years. 

 

So, really I am projecting what Svech is likely to do this year. I would agree that if he has a middling year, or even one that doesn't improve at all on this past year, then $8.5M might get it done. But year 3 is often a blowout year for major stars, and all signs sure seem to point that way for Svech. His season projected to 73 points as a 19 year old second season player. His playoffs were 7 points/4 goals in 6 games. Fun with numbers: that projects to 96 points and 47 goals over a season. I know, too small a sample, but it was "playoffs" production when few others produced much. 

 

So, I can see a 80-100 point season if we were having a typical 82 game season at some point this upcoming season. Even if he equals Aho, he's a year younger and the #2 overall thing plays in at least a little. And he's in the comparison to Marner and Eichel at least. Yes, they seemed to be overpaid, but one has to remember that the player and agent have to look at the deal and ask what might this look like in 6 years? Otherwise you're Nathan McKinnon, arguably one of the top 3 players in the NHL making $6.7M, in the #81 slot and dropping.

 

I don't know though. If he gets $9M AAV that would tie him with Jeff Skinner at #21 in the league. Even as a 19 year old in just his second season, Svech was #40 in ppg and #44 in goals. If Svech gets to 90 points (was at 73 point pace last year), he would be around the #17 best forward in the league at 20. But we have to consider paying him through his 20's, where he will probably get higher than that. 

 

OK, these are more musings that flat out disagreement. I mean really, I'm thinking $9-10M is only .5-1.5M more AAV. But I'm looking at where this cap is going to be when the TV deal is done and Covid is not destroying everything in it's path. The UFAs and star RFAs emerging right then will blow the scale up. We'd be smart to get ahead of it IMO.

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OK, fun fact in my research. Who led the NHL last season in points per game? 

 

 

That's right, Morgan Geekie. 

 

Of course you have to set the minimum games played to 2, but hey, it's still something!

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1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

Wait ,  they changed the date again ?  Originally  it was going to be 21-22  season  then  because of Covid happened   they said 22 -23 .    They changed it back to 21-22 ?  What is going on NHL ? 

Nope, Cff, the dates never varied COVID or not? Not sure where you got this misinformation but you'd better recheck.

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@remkin the difference in Svech and Aho is postion played. Centers are valued higher.  The best thing to do is try to get him a 3 year bridge and let the cap shake out before we go buck wild in spending. I wouldnt do that with Necas though.  Necas and Aho's contract would end on the same year.  a deal similar to Tkachuk's 3 year bridge would be suitable.  staal's and Gardiner's deals would be up by then.  If he would do and 8 x 8 or 8.5,  I would still do it.  But if he wants more than that, then I go the 3 year bridge route.  

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57 minutes ago, KJUNKANE said:

Nope, Cff, the dates never varied COVID or not? Not sure where you got this misinformation but you'd better recheck.

I was watching    tv   when i heard of the change of dates  and took it as is .     

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While I very highly value Necas I see retaining Hamilton as being more beneficial to the team's short to intermediate term success. Which is not meant to devalue Necas at all; I see him as our eventual long term 2nd line center, and a legit 1-2 punch at the center position is hard to come by. Gotta keep Necas, too.

 

On re-signing Hamilton after the expansion draft so as to gain another protection slot:

  • Gotta believe he'd be a juicy target for Francis to pursue if he's a UFA. Seattle wouldn't likely have cap or budget issues to deal with and might like a "top tier" player to anchor the team. And while Carolina has the advantage of being a proven great fit for Dougie, RF would have a blank canvas to paint whatever picture he thought might help get Hamilton to consider the Kraken. 
  • We'd have to make sure to not step over the line if there are NHL rules governing informal agreements. Arizona just got slapped hard for illegally fitness testing some prospects (2 draft picks, 2020 2nd and 2021 1st).
Edited by LakeLivin

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It's going to be interesting trying to fit all of these guys in. I think up front Aho/TT/Svech/Necas is the quad to keep. TT is on a really good deal. 

 

I don't think Necas will be in the Svech/Aho salary range unless he just explodes over the next 2 seasons. But he might. He's a year older than Svech, so it just seems less likely that he hits that mark. 

 

Another thing is that down the road we can hopefully fold in a Drury, Suzuki, Bokk, Rees, Puistola, etc and Geekie keeps improving. A couple of these guys on entry or team friendly deals instead of a Nino, Gardiner, etc could help fit that big 4 in too.  

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Canes future line up if possible 

 

Svechnikov / Aho / Teräväinen

Puistola  / Necas / Bokk 

Foegle / Suzuki / Geekie

Rees  / Drury /  Cotton 

       Slavin / Hamilton

       Honka / Sellgren

       Fleury /  Pesce 

          Askarov

          Kochetkov 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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3 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

But that's the thing you are not seeing ,  Hamiltons  contract is  up  the following season  the 2020-2021   year ,    The Expansion draft  will not happen until the end of the  2022  playoffs .    That means    after the 2021  season  him being a UFA  he would then  be allowed to sign with any team .    Which means  any team @beboplar just so you know . 

If he  were to sign with any other team in that year    that means   Carolina would have lost him and  there is no way  we would get him back .   Which also means  the team that did  get him   would protect  Hamilton  from  seattle .   Now if the Canes  signed   Hamilton   and left him  as you said unprotected you  could bet  Seattle would  snag him up regardless of what you think .    That means in 2022  he would be theirs if  the contract the canes  were to sign him for just  1 year .  Why even risk it ?            I dont  understand your logic at all . 

Isn't the expansion draft next summer after the conclusion of the 2020/2021 season?

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13 minutes ago, beboplar said:

Isn't the expansion draft next summer after the conclusion of the 2020/2021 season?

Yeah  you were right .   it's all cleared up now .  But i  Dont like the idea of leaving Hamilton not protected .   He might take it  the wrong way . 

Edited by Canesfanforever

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4 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

I heard  they changed the date Because they thought due to Covid   .   I see now  it's back to it's original   date . 

You heard wrong.  Don't believe everything you read on twitter or hear from "analysts" who are just speculating on TV.  The official NHL never went to 22.  You probably remember some speculation.  There was a ton of that during early COVID by sports jerks.  Don't worry about it, we all hear crap from time to time.

 

The one thing the NHL was upfront about was delaying the name announcement.  But they were clear is was just a delay in the name, not the start year.

Edited by wxray1

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48 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

Yeah  you were right .   it's all cleared up now .  But i  Dont like the idea of leaving Hamilton not protected .   He might take it  the wrong way . 

Hamilton is a professional athlete.  He has a lot of concerns:  

 

1. Security/money

2. Chemistry with teammates

3. Community/lifestyle

4. Winning

 

To win he has to have the best team surrounding him.  To have him on board with Slavin and Pesce and 3 slugs won't get the job done.  And I am not calling anyone in particular a slug, but signing Fleury, protecting those 3 (who NEED to be protected) and taking advantage of Hamilton's contract status to NOT protect him, all the while intending to sign him, is the play here.

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1 hour ago, beboplar said:

Hamilton is a professional athlete.  He has a lot of concerns:  

 

1. Security/money

2. Chemistry with teammates

3. Community/lifestyle

4. Winning

 

To win he has to have the best team surrounding him.  To have him on board with Slavin and Pesce and 3 slugs won't get the job done.  And I am not calling anyone in particular a slug, but signing Fleury, protecting those 3 (who NEED to be protected) and taking advantage of Hamilton's contract status to NOT protect him, all the while intending to sign him, is the play here.

And the off chance  Hamilton  says , they didnt  protect me so  might as well go  sign with  seattle  or some other team . 

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2 hours ago, beboplar said:

Hamilton is a professional athlete.  He has a lot of concerns:  

 

1. Security/money

2. Chemistry with teammates

3. Community/lifestyle

4. Winning

 

To win he has to have the best team surrounding him.  To have him on board with Slavin and Pesce and 3 slugs won't get the job done.  And I am not calling anyone in particular a slug, but signing Fleury, protecting those 3 (who NEED to be protected) and taking advantage of Hamilton's contract status to NOT protect him, all the while intending to sign him, is the play here.

 

I hear what you're saying but I think it could be awfully risky. I can envision Ron Francis 1. specifically targeting an unprotected UFA Hamilton. 2. Putting together a pretty good presentation to encourage Dougie to sign with Seattle. Start with perhaps $1.5m more per year in salary. Then sell Dougie on assuming a leadership role to help shape the culture in Seattle to something similar to Carolinas. Who knows, Hamilton's good buddy Warren Foegele could even be the player the Kraken get from Carolina.

 

I think the play is to re-sign Hamilton to a team friendly deal and then bribe the Kraken with other assets to take a Cane we're willing to lose. Unfortunately it's going to cost a lot more than a 5th rounder and Connor Brickley this go round, lol.  That's a byproduct of being so much deeper than we were at the time of the Vegas expansion draft. 

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3 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Who knows, Hamilton's good buddy Warren Foegele could even be the player the Kraken get from Carolina.

Last time with Vegas the rules were such that if Kraken picks one of team's pending UFA they are not picking any other players from that team.

 

Hamilton for some time might be Seattle's best player so I think they might try to throw as much money as possible at him.

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1 hour ago, Bonivan said:

Last time with Vegas the rules were such that if Kraken picks one of team's pending UFA they are not picking any other players from that team.

 

Hamilton for some time might be Seattle's best player so I think they might try to throw as much money as possible at him.

 

Good point. I'd still be hesitant to risk leaving Hamilton unprotected as a UFA unless he was really, really, really gung ho on the "agree before the draft but sign after" strategy.  

Edited by LakeLivin
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1 hour ago, Bonivan said:

Last time with Vegas the rules were such that if Kraken picks one of team's pending UFA they are not picking any other players from that team.

 

Hamilton for some time might be Seattle's best player so I think they might try to throw as much money as possible at him.

 

Just thinking; wasn't that only if they signed a team's pending UFA during that advance negotiation window Vegas had before the expansion draft? After the draft is over it's gotta be  every team for itself, no?  

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52 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

Just thinking; wasn't that only if they signed a team's pending UFA during that advance negotiation window Vegas had before the expansion draft? After the draft is over it's gotta be  every team for itself, no?  

Yes. If during the 3 day period they could negotiate and sign a pending FA as a draft choice. After that it was the standard UFA free for all.

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3 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I hear what you're saying but I think it could be awfully risky. I can envision Ron Francis 1. specifically targeting an unprotected UFA Hamilton. 2. Putting together a pretty good presentation to encourage Dougie to sign with Seattle. Start with perhaps $1.5m more per year in salary. Then sell Dougie on assuming a leadership role to help shape the culture in Seattle to something similar to Carolinas. Who knows, Hamilton's good buddy Warren Foegele could even be the player the Kraken get from Carolina.

 

I think the play is to re-sign Hamilton to a team friendly deal and then bribe the Kraken with other assets to take a Cane we're willing to lose. Unfortunately it's going to cost a lot more than a 5th rounder and Connor Brickley this go round, lol.  That's a byproduct of being so much deeper than we were at the time of the Vegas expansion draft. 

You would be acting as if the Hurricanes had not inbred a large amount of good karma in what will be the 3 years that Hamilton played for them.  He came to the Canes off two pretty bad exit experiences.  Two teams road him out of town.  He felt unwanted.  He felt under appreciated.  He is loving life being a Carolina Hurricane.  The last thing he is/will be feeling should the Canes make a savvy move to leave him unprotected whilst communicating their love for him and intentions to his representation is that the Canes "didnt  protect me so  might as well go  sign with  seattle  or some other team", as another contributor suggest he might be prone to do.  I don't buy that.  Times to exhibit some juevos, mi amigos. 

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2 hours ago, beboplar said:

You would be acting as if the Hurricanes had not inbred a large amount of good karma in what will be the 3 years that Hamilton played for them.  He came to the Canes off two pretty bad exit experiences.  Two teams road him out of town.  He felt unwanted.  He felt under appreciated.  He is loving life being a Carolina Hurricane.  The last thing he is/will be feeling should the Canes make a savvy move to leave him unprotected whilst communicating their love for him and intentions to his representation is that the Canes "didnt  protect me so  might as well go  sign with  seattle  or some other team", as another contributor suggest he might be prone to do.  I don't buy that.  Times to exhibit some juevos, mi amigos. 

 

Nah, I don't ascribe to him being offended by being left unprotected and because of that running off to Seattle. And I fully appreciate his past as contrasted with his fit in Carolina; I think I was the first in this thread to point that out as the reason he will hopefully sign a Canes friendly extension. But I still probably don't take the risk of leaving him unprotected. We each have our own risk / reward equation, and it seems like I either value him more than you or else see more of a risk in what Seattle might tempt him with. Quite a bit more money would just be the tip of it; Francis has a blank canvas to paint a picture that might be tempting to Hamilton if he's courted hard enough. And it's in Hamilton's agent's interest to maximize the dollar value of his next contract, so who knows how he might try to work Dougie?

 

And freeing up one protection spot doesn't even solve the problem. We'd still be almost certain to lose a defenseman we don't want to give up (either Bean, Fleury, or Skjei) unless we pay Seattle to pick otherwise. From what I'm reading, right now Seattle would most likely take Bean. But I could see it being Fleury depending on his next contract and how the two play next season. Hey, I'm with you as far as wanting to retain Haydn. I see him as having quite a bit of still unrealized upside, and hopefully soon he'll be locked into a great value contract. But I just don't think it's wise to take the risk of leaving Dougie unsigned until after the expansion draft given that there are other ways to retain the players we want. Sign Hamilton early to a team friendly deal and then throw Seattle a draft pick to stay away from whoever we want them to stay away from. 

Edited by LakeLivin
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On 8/25/2020 at 4:45 PM, remkin said:

JR is now in JR mode. Win at all costs. Trade the future. He has traded next year's first rounder too. Look, some could argue with Crosby and Malkin there it's the right move. Heck Crosby and Malkin are probably in favor. But JR trades first rounders like their raffle tickets to win a toaster oven. I look at that trade and wonder if we could have gotten that pick. #15 overall in this draft is still going to be a very good player. 

Apparently, Toronto offered Kapanen to Carolina for the 13th overall pick (among other things) per Pierre LeBrun ...

 

Pittsburgh Penguins GM Jim Rutherford outbid six teams for Kapanen, according to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun.  The Chicago Blackhawks refused
to give up the 17th overall pick for Kapanen, and the Carolina Hurricanes refused to part with the 13th overall pick.
 
The Maple Leafs spoke to the Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago, Minnesota, Nashville, and New Jersey before trading the forward
to Pittsburgh on Tuesday reports The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun.
 
I was surprised about how much JR gave up when I first heard about the trade.  Evidently, competition drove up the price, and Kapanen does fill a need,
but it's not surprising that Rutherford was the only one to say OK (sounds like a Sister Christian lyric) to a first round pick.
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15 hours ago, beboplar said:

taking advantage of Hamilton's contract status to NOT protect him, all the while intending to sign him, is the play here.

It's one play, but IMO, it's not the smart one for a small-market team that is already flirting with the cap.

 

Anytime expansion is looming the safest play is to sign the core you want to keep and several more you'd like to but are okay with losing, and expose the latter. The risks of losing Hamilton increase if you wait until after the expansion draft to sign him, because if another team offer-sheets him, you're guaranteed to lose one of two things: control of your payroll, or him. Hamilton is the bonafide, two-way, physical-in-his-end, score-from-anywhere-in-the-other, QB-the-PP, RHD this team has needed forever. You don't risk losing that, you lock. It. Down.

 

Edited by top-shelf-1
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1 hour ago, bluedevil58 said:

I don't think Kapanen is worth a 13th overall pick tbh.

Thankfully neither did the committee.

 

I am reading too deep here because there are exciting forwards that should be there at #13, but somehow us turning that down slightly nudge the needle on the possibility that the committee is eyeing Askarov. I really like the forwards available at #13, but while Kapanen is not elite, he is proven vs the mid round forwards. But vs the best goalie prospect in years? Just musing here.

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2 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

It's one play, but IMO, it's not the smart one for a small-market team that is already flirting with the cap.

 

Anytime expansion is looming the safest play is to sign the core you want to keep and several more you'd like to but are okay with losing, and expose the latter. The risks of losing Hamilton increase if you wait until after the expansion draft to sign him, because if another team offer-sheets him, you're guaranteed to lose one of two things: control of your payroll, or him. Hamilton is the bonafide, two-way, physical-in-his-end, score-from-anywhere-in-the-other, QB-the-PP, RHD this team has needed forever. You don't risk losing that, you lock. It. Down.

 

Respect your view.  However, it's a Win/Lose scenario.  We need a Win/Win scenario, and that is what I have suggested.  Hey, the NY Yankees have 27 world series rings.  They didn't get there by not taking chances.  If Fleury is left unprotected, I have no doubt he will be plucked ahead of Bean.  I would have no intention of protecting Skjei and his $4M+ salary.  Bean seems like the sacrificial lamb should Fleury be protected as I have discussed.

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