Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
LakeLivin

Offseason Talk 2020

Recommended Posts

Toronto got a prospect too. Not sure how good, but supposedly not bad. 

 

We talk about the 50/50 nature of first rounders, and that is true. However it is also skewed based on what part of the first round. As each pick goes down the board from one to 31 there is an increasing tendency to hit or miss that continues down the second round too. Also, different years are markedly different, and while no one knows for sure, this is pegged as a deep draft. 

 

Kapanen is a proven NHL 40 plus point, nearly 20 goal guy who is statistically probably not peak yet. I think that is worth a first rounder, but IMO not in the top half of the draft, and if it were me, I'd probably say below #20. But that's because there are so many good players, especially forwards in this draft. 

 

Then again, the state of the team giving up the draft pick matters. Pittsburgh is definitely a team that is trying to win now. The main problem IMO with Pittsburgh is that they keep doing it over and over and over. At some point...well they're already ranked #30/31 for their farm depth. And with no first rounder this year OR next, JR will be leaving the cupboard bare. Just like he did for Francis here. Of course he'll be moved on or retired by then.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, remkin said:

Toronto got a prospect too. Not sure how good, but supposedly not bad. 

 

 

Pittsburgh still had a prospect?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, beboplar said:

Respect your view.  However, it's a Win/Lose scenario.  We need a Win/Win scenario, and that is what I have suggested.  Hey, the NY Yankees have 27 world series rings.  They didn't get there by not taking chances.  If Fleury is left unprotected, I have no doubt he will be plucked ahead of Bean.  I would have no intention of protecting Skjei and his $4M+ salary.  Bean seems like the sacrificial lamb should Fleury be protected as I have discussed.

 

That's a possible Win/Win scenario. But it's also a possible Win/Lose Big. Where you come down on that spectrum obviously depends on your calculus. 

 

Another factor I'm sure the Committee is considering is the cost of locking up Hamilton. He was in the midst of a Norris-level year when he broke his leg last season. If he plays that way for the entirety of next season I've gotta believe that even a team friendly contract will go way up. On the other hand, if he gets injured again it would almost certainly help keep his price down. So do you lock him up early? That's a double edged sword; you could end up with a Slavin/Pesce type deal or you could get a Victor Rask/Jordan Staal one, lol.

 

The Fleury / Bean question is an interesting one. I'm probably higher on Fleury than many others, but I don't pretend to know enough about Bean to have a strong opinion either way. Here's one perspective from CardiacCane: 

 

https://cardiaccane.com/2020/07/31/carolina-hurricanes-looking-ahead-to-seattles-expansion-draft/

The Fleury and Bean debate is one I’ve had many times. Bean’s upside offensively is astronomically better than Fleury’s. That said, Fleury is a much more defensive player taking more after guys like Jaccob Slavin. Bean’s offensive prowess has already earned him an AHL defender of the year award. Fleury’s starting to blossom into a top 4 guy who can play large amounts of ice time.

 

Between Skjei, Gardiner, Bean, and Fleury, I personally think the most attractive option for a new team coming into the league is Bean. It doesn't hurt that he’s also the youngest option. His ELC would have just expired so he will be an RFA for several years after. This also could help Seattle if they want to eat bad deals, or if they want to retain cap to trade for future assets.

 

Hey, one thing I'm sure we can agree on is that it's going to be a busy offseason for The Committee! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to see what Bean can do for the canes   next season .   If bean can out perform  Fleury  then   we know what must be done .   beg francis  no pick our d  and go for nino instead  :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is temping for us fans and even those with more experience to focus on the now. But there is a role for the overall plan and the future. I would HATE to let Seattle have Bean. I'd rather let them have Skjei and Gardiner and Nino and Dzingle, and Staal, I mean for crying out loud don't we have enough guys we can expose?

 

But back to the point about Bean.

 

1. The best players tend to be developed and brought up within their organization.

2. Bean was a high first rounder. I know, in some ways that doesn't matter, but the scouts picked him despite really needing a forward ahead of the available forwards because they thought his upside was even higher.

3. He has developed. He is the AHL D man of the year. 

4. Mainly, as I've gone on and on about, as we try to sign our nice things like Dougy and Svech, we need to make cap space somewhere. One of the most strategically sound ways to do that is with capable players on entry deals. Another way is not to spend anything on your bottom pair D. Keeping Bean checks both boxes.

5. We could get some return on a more expensive D man in terms of a forward or even goalie, but are unlikely to get fair return on Bean. 

6. Although Keane and Honka have potential, Bean is further along and closer to proven. 

 

So I really don't like the idea of losing Bean to the Seattle GM. But we do know he likes him. He drafted him after all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, remkin said:

It is temping for us fans and even those with more experience to focus on the now. But there is a role for the overall plan and the future. I would HATE to let Seattle have Bean. I'd rather let them have Skjei and Gardiner and Nino and Dzingle, and Staal, I mean for crying out loud don't we have enough guys we can expose?

 

But back to the point about Bean.

 

1. The best players tend to be developed and brought up within their organization.

2. Bean was a high first rounder. I know, in some ways that doesn't matter, but the scouts picked him despite really needing a forward ahead of the available forwards because they thought his upside was even higher.

3. He has developed. He is the AHL D man of the year. 

4. Mainly, as I've gone on and on about, as we try to sign our nice things like Dougy and Svech, we need to make cap space somewhere. One of the most strategically sound ways to do that is with capable players on entry deals. Another way is not to spend anything on your bottom pair D. Keeping Bean checks both boxes.

5. We could get some return on a more expensive D man in terms of a forward or even goalie, but are unlikely to get fair return on Bean. 

6. Although Keane and Honka have potential, Bean is further along and closer to proven. 

 

So I really don't like the idea of losing Bean to the Seattle GM. But we do know he likes him. He drafted him after all. 

I look at it like this ,  If Bean  can mange to play a fair  number of games  this year  and   out score pesce .  But still play capable  minuets    and be  good in his own  zone  .   Then  just Expose Pesce .   Id rather  lose a guy who  is possibly  injury prone over a guy  that  could get  40  or more points a year . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, beboplar said:

However, it's a Win/Lose scenario.

And I respect yours, bepolar, but this is a small-market team without bottomless pockets--the opposite of the Yankees. When the chances they take don't pan out they can always (and have always) buy themselves out of it. We don't have that luxury.

 

That said, if you want to continue the dialog, please begin by enlightening me: How exactly is preparing as thoroughly as possible for the inevitability of losing someone by locking down your core "a win/lose scenario"? You can't on one hand say that your proposal is a win-win, while at the same time admitting it is risky. 

 

Here's what I am hearing: You prefer keeping Fleury, and that's your prerogative. But as a long-suffering Canes fan, I favor the bird in the hand. Hamilton is the kind of D-man this team has searched for in vain for the better part of 20 years. You don't risk losing him to the lick and promise which Fleury, Bean, or any other 5-6 Dman represents, at this point in their careers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

I look at it like this ,  If Bean  can mange to play a fair  number of games  this year  and   out score pesce .  But still play capable  minuets    and be  good in his own  zone  .   Then  just Expose Pesce .   Id rather  lose a guy who  is possibly  injury prone over a guy  that  could get  40  or more points a year . 

Pesce is on a good contract and a major shut down guy and a RHD where we are a bit short. That's why I keep wondering about Skjei. I know we traded a first for him, the committee likes him, and we traded a first rounder for him, but he's on a long fairly rich salary and might get us a return, and he's LHD. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

I want to see what Bean can do for the canes   next season .   If bean can out perform  Fleury  then   we know what must be done .   beg francis  no pick our d  and go for nino instead  :D

I hope you're not holding your breath, because I doubt he plays in Raleigh. He's still on his ELC and you're not going to dominate your division or conference with two still-learning blueliners. That dominance is the next step, because it eases the road through the playoffs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, top-shelf-1 said:

And I respect yours, bepolar, but this is a small-market team without bottomless pockets--the opposite of the Yankees. When the chances they take don't pan out they can always (and have always) buy themselves out of it. We don't have that luxury.

 

That said, if you want to continue the dialog, please begin by enlightening me: How exactly is preparing as thoroughly as possible for the inevitability of losing someone by locking down your core "a win/lose scenario"? You can't on one hand say that your proposal is a win-win, while at the same time admitting it is risky. 

 

Here's what I am hearing: You prefer keeping Fleury, and that's your prerogative. But as a long-suffering Canes fan, I favor the bird in the hand. Hamilton is the kind of D-man this team has searched for in vain for the better part of 20 years. You don't risk losing him to the lick and promise which Fleury, Bean, or any other 5-6 Dman represents, at this point in their careers.

You guys get to watch more real time action than I do.  Based upon the highlights I got to see of both the Rangers and Bruins series, would I be that far off to say that Haydn Fleury was the best player on the ice for the Canes?  What I got to see was Fleury knocking opponents on their ass_s and hitting the back netting a more than one beautiful shots from the point.  The Canes are a small market team.  The #1 guy to spend big bucks on, IMO, without any question, is Svechnikov.  No question in my mind.  With all of the other deals in place, after making that deal it will take skilled practitioner to massage the salary cap in order to make Hamilton a worthy offer to begin with.  We would all like to see a few guys making $4M moved to another address, but the fact is it's probably not happening.  Bean could be a nice player, but then again the Canes are loaded on the left side and Fleury, now, is not a "could be" he is a player.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, beboplar said:

and Fleury, now, is not a "could be" he is a player.

The best player on the ice? Yeah, you need to watch the games, not just the highlights. 

 

Nobody said Fleury isn't a player. He's just not a top-four D-man yet. Whether he can play those minutes night in and night out remains to be seen, and we'd be stupid to rush him. The Canes did that serially did under Rutherford, and IMO it had a lot to do with why Faulk (and many others) never became what they otherwise might have. 

 

You're right that signing Svech is crucial, but he's not a blueliner--so bringing him up is changing the subject as far as I'm concerned. We've finally got an owner with the money to treat the front and back ends as separate payroll centers, while complementary--and therefore to pay more on one side or the other to ensure balance, on-ice, overall. A lot will very likely be happening with the forward corps payroll to free up money to pay Svech. Nino ($5.2 million) and Dzingel ($3.5) take care of it.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

The best player on the ice? Yeah, you need to watch the games, not just the highlights. 

 

Nobody said Fleury isn't a player. He's just not a top-four D-man yet. Whether he can play those minutes night in and night out remains to be seen, and we'd be stupid to rush him. The Canes did that serially did under Rutherford, and IMO it had a lot to do with why Faulk (and many others) never became what they otherwise might have. 

 

You're right that signing Svech is crucial, but he's not a blueliner--so bringing him up is changing the subject as far as I'm concerned. We've finally got an owner with the money to treat the front and back ends as separate payroll centers, while complementary--and therefore to pay more on one side or the other to ensure balance, on-ice, overall. A lot will very likely be happening with the forward corps payroll to free up money to pay Svech. Nino ($5.2 million) and Dzingel ($3.5) take care of it.

Not changing the subject at all.  You mentioned Carolina is a small market team.  Even if TD has all the money in the world, they are up near the cap limit.  Nino's deal, Gardiner's deal, Skjei's deal, Staal's deal have ways to go.  Dzingel not so much.  Between the 2 signings, Svechnikov's is imperative for the long term future of the franchise.  Hamilton is a guy we fans like and want on the team, but make no mistake, with the other defensemen aboard, Svech is the guy who needs to carry the team on his back to the next level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The more i think about it the more i get a head ache . 

 

It is possible  That Gardiner could really   mess things up  for  carolina .  He  has a modified  -ntc .   so a list of 7 teams he could say no to . 

I'm   just   trying guess  which of those 7 teams  he would list  not to be traded to .  could be  teams that  would not hurt  them defensive wise  cause there would not be much to pick from  for seattle .  

And with the teams  he leaves out   would be teams that they  would  not want to trade with carolina because  it could  end up  hurting them on losing someone on defense  . or not trade due to cap issues . 

Thus making Gardiner   having to stay which means the canes  would be  forced to protect him .

 

Would he want to go to minnesota ? or is he like Faulk   and dreads the place ?

Edited by Canesfanforever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

I look at it like this ,  If Bean  can mange to play a fair  number of games  this year  and   out score pesce .  But still play capable  minuets    and be  good in his own  zone  .   Then  just Expose Pesce .   Id rather  lose a guy who  is possibly  injury prone over a guy  that  could get  40  or more points a year . 


yikes

 

You’d rather lose a proven top 4 RD for nothing than a prospect who’s only played 2 NHL games?

Edited by spockrock
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

The more i think about it the more i get a head ache . 

 

It is possible  That Gardiner could really   mess things up  for  carolina .  He  has a modified  -ntc .   so a list of 7 teams he could say no to . 

I'm   just   trying guess  which of those 7 teams  he would list  not to be traded to .  could be  teams that  would not hurt  them defensive wise  cause there would not be much to pick from  for seattle .  

And with the teams  he leaves out   would be teams that they  would  not want to trade with carolina because  it could  end up  hurting them on losing someone on defense  . or not trade due to cap issues . 

Thus making Gardiner   having to stay which means the canes  would be  forced to protect him .

 

Would he want to go to minnesota ? or is he like Faulk   and dreads the place ?

NTCs have no affect at the expansion draft, just NMCs. Staal is the only forced protected player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Canesfanforever said:

The more i think about it the more i get a head ache . 

 

It is possible  That Gardiner could really   mess things up  for  carolina .  He  has a modified  -ntc .   so a list of 7 teams he could say no to . 

I'm   just   trying guess  which of those 7 teams  he would list  not to be traded to .  could be  teams that  would not hurt  them defensive wise  cause there would not be much to pick from  for seattle .  

And with the teams  he leaves out   would be teams that they  would  not want to trade with carolina because  it could  end up  hurting them on losing someone on defense  . or not trade due to cap issues . 

Thus making Gardiner   having to stay which means the canes  would be  forced to protect him .

 

Would he want to go to minnesota ? or is he like Faulk   and dreads the place ?


There are 7 teams in Canada. Gardiner did not like playing under the microscope in a Canadian market. I’d wager all 7 Canadian teams are in his list. There are still 23 other teams with which to deal though.

 

Lets also make the point that a No Trade Clause is NOT the same thing as a No Movement clause. The only player on CAR with a NMC is Staal. Without him waving his NMC for the expansion draft, the Canes will have to use one of their protection slots on him. Any players with NTCs only, can be exposed. So, no, Gardiner will NOT have to be protected.

 

Gardiner isn’t as bad as he’s been made out to be, and if a player of his caliber is on your 3rd pair, you’re in good shape. The problem is that he’s being paid like a lower-end 2nd pair guy while the Canes are stacked on the left side with player who have outplayed him this past season and playoffs. 

 

In regards to the expansion draft, it’s most likely, barring any moves, that one of Fleury/Bean on the D or one of Foegele/Geekie up front is picked by Francis. Are any of these losses catastrophic?...No. So they could just prepare to lose a good player and move on. In the end it they will only lose 1 good player with this approach. Alternatively, they could pay Francis in pick(s) or prospect(s) to take a   Gardiner or Niederreiter off their hands, but that seems unlikely to me with the way the front office seems to hoard and value picks as well as prospects.

 

They’ll likely lose exactly 1 good player for nothing, and life will move on. Their core will stay in tact and they’ll still have a very good prospect pool.

Edited by spockrock

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, spockrock said:


yikes

 

You’d rather lose a proven top 4 RD for nothing than a prospect who’s only played 2 NHL games?

No ,  If bean  plays a fair amount this year  and has proven himself to be a  great  defenseman and  the offensive  defenseman  we had hoped  then  you keep the kid that proved himself over someone who is showing  signs of being injury prone .   If  not  then  keep pesce .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, gocanes0506 said:

NTCs have no affect at the expansion draft, just NMCs. Staal is the only forced protected player.

I thought  NTC and  NMC    had to be protected . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Canesfanforever said:

Goood ,  Lets hope Francis  takes Gardiner off our hands then .  

 

That would be nice but Gardiner will be about to turn 31yo with 2 years left on his contract at just over $4m per. I can't envision a future in which RF takes Gardiner unless we throw in a fairly juicy incentive. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

 

That would be nice but Gardiner will be about to turn 31yo with 2 years left on his contract at just over $4m per. I can't envision a future in which RF takes Gardiner unless we throw in a fairly juicy incentive. 

How juicy  are you looking at ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

How juicy  are you looking at ?

 

I'd bet it would have to be pretty darn juicy, lol. Given this past season, unless Gardiner has a fantastic next season I've got to believe he has negative value. So we'd be paying RF not only to take on Gardiner's negative value contract but to pass up a player like one of  Geekie/Foegele/Bean/Fleury/Dzingle/Trochek,as well. Consider that Toronto gave up their first round draft pick to dump Marleau's cap hit (plus they saved $3.8m in cash) and I think it gives us an idea that it would be fairly painful. 

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...