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Season start date

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41 minutes ago, hockeybaby said:

They have said tentative date is Dec 1. What happens if Canada still has its border closed to USA residents cos of covid?

Unknown, and perhaps the biggest impediment to starting Dec. 1.  They've discussed a bit on XM with wild ideas.  One being a realignment of conference groups, at least for season start.   Another being "bubble time" in multiple bubbles.  Who knows?

 

33 minutes ago, cc said:

There will be no in person games until after December. Take it to the bank.

There's the fan issue, and then there is the player issue.  USA-CAN travel affects the players too, even if there are no fans.  Unless Trudeau makes exceptions for the NHL teams like he did for the bubbles. 

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1 hour ago, hockeybaby said:

They have said tentative date is Dec 1. What happens if Canada still has its border closed to USA residents cos of covid?

Ive seen some articles on Athletic with execs that said December 1st is aggressive and unlikely.  Probably wont see a start until the beginning of the year at the earliest. The league is so tied gate revenue they will delay to get more games with fans.

 

even speculation that the Winter classic would be the opening game 

Edited by gocanes0506

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I think it was Waddell who said he didn't see how fanless games works for the regular season. That is, there is not enough money from TV to handle payroll and expenses without ticket revenue.

 

One never knows how a pandemic will eventually end, but it looks at the moment like the vaccine hope is pretty high. One of my partners got into a clinical trial on one of them and got his dose (or placebo) yesterday. Looks like there will be enough progress to allow application for the first vaccine(s) in October and the first doses might be available in November. If true, the plan to prepare many doses ahead of time could allow unprecedented levels of ramp up on vaccinating people. 

 

Even so, the first doses will go to health care, first responders, and nursing home and elderly people. This will highly impact the death rate, and make some of us on the front lines feel a little better, but not be widespread enough to kill the pandemic. The questions will then be: how fast can the general population be vaccinated, how long for the immunity to kick in, and how much immunity is needed, when added to existing immunity to stop this thing. 

 

We just don't know. 

 

If the broader public is immunized by the end of December though, it has the potential to change dramatically for the good. If that happens things will look much different, and things that seem nuts now will normalize quickly. 

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17 hours ago, realmdrakkar said:

Wonder if team-player Tuukka would show up for that.

 

This is from reporter Greg Hill who had a phone conversation with Rask after he left the bubble. I guess it's up to each of us to draw our own conclusions as to Rask's decision.

 

"I can tell you that he got a phone call in the bubble from his wife, because there was a medical emergency with their daughter. Basically the kind of situation where I believe Tuukka Rask did what every parent would do and was obviously very concerned. It was suggested they seek medical help. Without revealing what that was, because I think I probably should leave that to him -- he did tell me -- as a father of two kids, I would be panicked and alarmed upon hearing that about a young kid." 

 

"Again, without necessarily revealing what he would not want me to reveal, he did speak to his daughter and his daughter did express something to him about where he was and what her situation was, which I think would lead any father, any parent, especially one who feels like that's their most important job, parenting, to want to rush to be with their family at that time. Personally, I can't imagine being away from your family, away from your young kids, hearing your daughter say what she said, and not being panicked."

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3 hours ago, remkin said:

If the broader public is immunized by the end of December though, it has the potential to change dramatically for the good. If that happens things will look much different, and things that seem nuts now will normalize quickly. 

That is crazy optimistic.  We can't even get people tested in good numbers 6 months later.   Now we're going to ramp up mass vaccinations in 6 weeks time?  Wait in line at CVS for 12 hours?  No thanks.  Flu vaccinations take many months and even there, it is still too small of a population.  There will be more resistance to Covid vaccine too.  I'm not talking anti-vaxxers, I'm talking people who lived through the 70s swine flu and remember that debacle.  Many will want to wait and see.

 

My guess is if the phase 3 trials pass, and they ramp up manufacturing and distribution, we'll have a hope of a wide vaccination distribution by late spring. 

 

So, Waddell says no fans, no games.  Well, I'm still thinking something like 10% load might be possible, if <political comments deleted by me... gotta stay calm>.

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1 hour ago, wxray1 said:

That is crazy optimistic.  We can't even get people tested in good numbers 6 months later.   Now we're going to ramp up mass vaccinations in 6 weeks time?  Wait in line at CVS for 12 hours?  No thanks.  Flu vaccinations take many months and even there, it is still too small of a population.  There will be more resistance to Covid vaccine too.  I'm not talking anti-vaxxers, I'm talking people who lived through the 70s swine flu and remember that debacle.  Many will want to wait and see.

 

My guess is if the phase 3 trials pass, and they ramp up manufacturing and distribution, we'll have a hope of a wide vaccination distribution by late spring. 

It is optimistic, but not crazy. The phrase "broader public is immunized" was probably not well stated though. I didn't mean that everyone would be immunized, but that the general public would be getting immunized. At some point, if the vaccine is effective, it will add to the existing immunity from those already exposed and at some point we could hit a form of herd immunity after which the disease could drop precipitously. I'm not saying it's gone, but if it becomes rare, things will change, especially if more and more people keep getting immunized. Attitudes and fears will change. We're not there yet so it's hard to imagine. 

 

The federal government has pre-purchased leading vaccine candidates and starting already to stockpile them. They are already being manufactured as if they are approved. This is suggestive that the data to date has been positive, but the trials have just not completed yet. But it is still a cost risk until the final data is tabulated. They have pre-purchased millions of doses of 8 or more vaccines. Once one is proven safe and effective the doses already exist to be sent out. This seems pretty smart to me, hopefully saying that something seems smart is not too political. 

 

Giving shots to people is no where near as tricky as testing. You fill out a form. Roll your sleeve up. Get a shot. Move on. I was trying to find some data on how fast a population could be vaccinated, but a cursory search didn't turn much up. 

 

Right now, just about anyone in this country can get a Covid test by request and the simple saliva test is rolling out. The idea that we're not testing enough is not consistent with my experience. Just about every county has a center anyone can go get tested. When things spiked up, the turn around times were legitimately problematic. This has improved though, and I think it's close to 2 days now. 

 

Trust me, I know that this is scary. Yesterday I put endotracheal tubes into 2 sick covid patients and sutured a 92 year old lady's lip who was continuously forcibly exhaling into my face from about a foot away and then another that required another lengthy procedure. I want this over as much as anyone and I'm as frustrated that it's still with us as anyone. 

 

But there is hope. The biggest hope is vaccination, by far. A lot of work on Corona Virus vaccines was done previously due to SARS and MERS. That, advances in tech, and a massive push to develop and pre purchase vaccines, has us years ahead of where we'd have been in a different time.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

It is optimistic, but not crazy. The phrase "broader public is immunized" was probably not well stated though. I didn't mean that everyone would be immunized, but that the general public would be getting immunized. At some point, if the vaccine is effective, it will add to the existing immunity from those already exposed and at some point we could hit a form of herd immunity after which the disease could drop precipitously. I'm not saying it's gone, but if it becomes rare, things will change, especially if more and more people keep getting immunized. Attitudes and fears will change. We're not there yet so it's hard to imagine. 

 

The federal government has pre-purchased leading vaccine candidates and starting already to stockpile them. They are already being manufactured as if they are approved. This is suggestive that the data to date has been positive, but the trials have just not completed yet. But it is still a cost risk until the final data is tabulated. They have pre-purchased millions of doses of 8 or more vaccines. Once one is proven safe and effective the doses already exist to be sent out. This seems pretty smart to me, hopefully saying that something seems smart is not too political. 

 

Giving shots to people is no where near as tricky as testing. You fill out a form. Roll your sleeve up. Get a shot. Move on. I was trying to find some data on how fast a population could be vaccinated, but a cursory search didn't turn much up. 

 

Right now, just about anyone in this country can get a Covid test by request and the simple saliva test is rolling out. The idea that we're not testing enough is not consistent with my experience. Just about every county has a center anyone can go get tested. When things spiked up, the turn around times were legitimately problematic. This has improved though, and I think it's close to 2 days now. 

 

Trust me, I know that this is scary. Yesterday I put endotracheal tubes into 2 sick covid patients and sutured a 92 year old lady's lip who was continuously forcibly exhaling into my face from about a foot away and then another that required another lengthy procedure. I want this over as much as anyone and I'm as frustrated that it's still with us as anyone. 

 

But there is hope. The biggest hope is vaccination, by far. A lot of work on Corona Virus vaccines was done previously due to SARS and MERS. That, advances in tech, and a massive push to develop and pre purchase vaccines, has us years ahead of where we'd have been in a different time.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic but I don't want to get too far out over my skis. As I recall, a large number of hydroxychloroquine doses were also purchased by this administration. Yeah, I know it's different, and if one or more vaccines hits, having stock ready to go will be great.

 

I just hope they don't push something out early due to political pressure that ends up hurting with regard to the big picture. I'm not worried about another thalidomide, but the last thing we need while this thing is still active is a false sense of security; there are already way too many people who don't believe covid-19 is a legitimate threat. And I'd hate to give the anti-vaxers something legitimate to add to their conspiracy theories.  

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14 hours ago, LakeLivin said:

 

I just hope they don't push something out early due to political pressure that ends up hurting with regard to the big picture. I'm not worried about another thalidomide, but the last thing we need while this thing is still active is a false sense of security; there are already way too many people who don't believe covid-19 is a legitimate threat. And I'd hate to give the anti-vaxers something legitimate to add to their conspiracy theories.  

All reasonable concerns, though as with most things in medicine it's all risk/reward. To my eye there is no major therapeutic that would be widely usable so as to slow the pandemic (the most promising ones are all really for hospitalized patients). So really, it's herd immunity, stopping the spread using isolation (biggest hoax of all, that cat is so long gone out of the bag it's already living with a neighbor 3 blocks away), or a vaccine. 

 

But the thing about the vaccine is that things have advanced tremendously lately in vaccine development and there was already a lot of work put in on corona viruses well before Covid 19. The other thing about the vaccine is that there is data. We just get rumors at this point, but there is data. The companies pretty much know that they work or not, at least in the short term. The in house data on vaccines is going to be around 30-50K patients vs, say 24 in the French Hydroxychloroquine study. Not 24K, two dozen. The hydroxchloroquine was a miss. But it's cheap and eventually some of the stock can be used for other uses, and if it had worked as well as some tiny early studies suggested, it would have been amazing. But it was a miss.

 

Also some of the head start vaccines target parts of the virus shared with other coronaviruses, so again, there is work put in ahead of time.

 

Basically, most vaccines pre covid were on a pretty slow path because there is so little tolerance of any negative effects, even if they are wildly outweighed by positive ones (vaccines are a classic example of an area of our medical production decimated by lawsuits, but that's another topic).This one is on a very fast track, but that mostly just means it's getting into phase III trials faster, not that the phase III trials will not be done well. If they are well-designed studies with tens of thousands of patients and show benefit, I'm in. 

 

Phase III trials definitely fail where phase II trials looked great. But a lot of those failures are in novel medicine classes. Vaccines, are not that. With over 30 vaccines in various states of development, two nearly ready, and 8 pretty close...I like those odds. 

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19 hours ago, wxray1 said:

That is crazy optimistic.

Yes. While it is good to be prepared in advance for the possibility in order to assure fast distribution and inoculation, even the chief adviser to Operation Warp Speed says early November is "extremely unlikely." There are plausible concerns that an approval by November would require the cutting of corners which simply should not be cut, at least not if we are serious about first confirming the vaccine's efficacy and safety.

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1 hour ago, remkin said:

stopping the spread using isolation (biggest hoax of all,

Please explain, with verified science, rem.

 

Your claim suggests it is mere coincidence that the millions of people all over the world who have remained vigilant about limiting contact and have not fallen ill are not helping to stop the spread... and that it is also pure coincidence that the places which have opened up have seen large and fast increases in cases. Our local prison went from no cases to over 80 in a matter of days, but the rate of infection outside the prison walls has remained about where it was prior to that outbreak.

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1 hour ago, top-shelf-1 said:

Please explain, with verified science, rem.

 

Your claim suggests it is mere coincidence that the millions of people all over the world who have remained vigilant about limiting contact and have not fallen ill are not helping to stop the spread... and that it is also pure coincidence that the places which have opened up have seen large and fast increases in cases. Our local prison went from no cases to over 80 in a matter of days, but the rate of infection outside the prison walls has remained about where it was prior to that outbreak.

The point I was making is that slowing the spread is not to stopping the spread, and the science on that is pretty clear. It just makes it last longer. The idea that it can be put back in the box is so absurd that it was settled months ago. That said, there is very good reason to slow the spread. That reason, however, is not to stop the spread by itself, it is to slow the spread in lieu of the upcoming vaccine. I do think that it is very likely that masks and social distancing and definitely not have mass gatherings, does slow the spread, but there is way too much out of the virus out of the barn to stop it by isolation. That's kind of self-evident.

 

I will dial back on the term Hoax though because it's inflammatory. It's probably what drew you in, and I really don't want part two of our debate. Just not up for it. So I'll refocus my comments. My intended point was that the idea of defeating this virus by isolation was lost months ago and this is uniformly agreed to. HOWEVER, the value of slowing the spread is valid, but not to kill the pandemic. It is valid only because it will allow time for vaccines to be deployed with less people getting the disease. If effective the vaccines will boost the herd immunity to the point that the virus will die out. There is value in delaying the number of people infected precisely and mainly because they can either be vaccinated or saved by the herd immunity of others being vaccinated.

 

I wear a mask in public (even before it was law) and social distance and ask everyone else to. What I think alot of anti-mask people don't consider is that your mask saves me from you, and mine you from me. Very little the other way around. Looking at the projection images of a person coughing or sneezing with and without masks is pretty compelling. BTW single ply cloth masks? Not that much better than nothing. Surgical masks though really slow the projection of droplets.

 

If there were no vaccine on the horizon? If we were not on a very fast track to a vaccine? Slowing the spread just makes it last longer. It's already too long. 

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10 minutes ago, remkin said:

but there is way too much out of the virus out of the barn to stop it by isolation. That's kind of self-evident.

I beg to differ. We have been isolating since March. I work at a non-profit which lost a third of its staff just before the pandemic broke. If any of us remaining had fallen ill, mission-critical tasks would not have happened, and several of us (myself included) are in the high-risk group, whether age or underlying conditions or a combination of the two. 

 

We all isolated in hopes of remaining healthy, and each of us has. When any of us go for essential trips (food shopping, outdoor exercise) we follow the three W's. 

 

16 minutes ago, remkin said:

If there were no vaccine on the horizon? If we were not on a very fast track to a vaccine? Slowing the spread just makes it last longer. It's already too long. 

 

If, if, if... but those if's of yours are happening. Here's another: IF the people who have insisted on doing the things which you and I agree are risky would not have done them, the spread would have remained minimal. By claiming that being considerate of all of us was an "infringement on their personal freedom"--and THAT is the REAL hoax--they put those of us who went out as infrequently as possible at greater risk. 

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21 hours ago, top-shelf-1 said:

 Here's another: IF the people who have insisted on doing the things which you and I agree are risky would not have done them, the spread would have remained minimal. By claiming that being considerate of all of us was an "infringement on their personal freedom"--and THAT is the REAL hoax--they put those of us who went out as infrequently as possible at greater risk. 

I was going to leave our debate alone for several reasons, not the least of which people don't really want to read it, but I will agree where I can so I'll post on an area of apparent agreement. If we agree on something it must surely be true!

 

I am not anti-mask. I really don't get the impetus behind anti-mask. To quote a favorite, "your right to flail your arms around ends at my face". I think putting others at risk by not wearing a mask in closed spaces, is wrong. I value personal freedom, but anyone who has that viewpoint should also realize that it comes with responsibility. Perhaps those who value personal freedom in a way have an even greater responsibility to not violate someone else's. That's the thing I was saying about masks. They mostly protect the other guy. (Assuming 95% of people are not wearing N95s, which do offer protection to the wearer).

 

But I'll go even further. In a pandemic the ethical net has to be cast even wider. A common debate on this philosophical issue is motorcycle helmets. Should a person have the right to take that chance if it only puts them at risk. But at least in that debate the issue is society paying for the person's care if they are disabled by not wearing the helmet. With a contagious disease there is another level, that to me, makes the philosophical part beyond debate. 

 

That is, even if the mask only protected the wearer (not the case, but for the argument I think some non mask wearers seem to think that they're only putting themselves at risk), there would be a responsibility to avoid getting the disease, not only for their sake for them or even the broader health care costs of caring for that person, but because they can then spread the disease, (and statistically will) to someone else. 

 

The other sides of the argument is any risk or undue cost to the mask wearer. I don't see one. It's a mask. Some people in Japan have been wearing them around for years. They are not expensive. It is a very small inconvenience to potentially protect people around you. For completeness of debate, there has to be reasonable limits to wearing a mask. If that gets out of line then there is a very real issue. Wearing a mask at home, or alone in the woods, is batty, and can't be supported scientifically. 

 

It is my opinion the end-game is only achieved by immunity at this point with this disease, but that doesn't mean that people should be careless with the health of another person. Further the potential of a vaccine only heightens this responsibility to limit the spread pre vaccine.

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Well said, rem. We also agree about immunity, though I support keeping oneself (and thereby others) as protected as possible until that immunity is provided by a vaccine. The fewer people we lose in the meantime, or whose pursuit of happiness is made more difficult by the effects of such things as long-tail Covid (sounds like all it needs is a pitchfork!); or the documented irreversible damage the disease itself causes to other body systems in many survivors, the better--to me--the job we've done.

 

It is estimated that 50 percent of the population have an underlying condition or are of an age putting them at risk for either outcome, not to mention death. 180,000... that's just an unconscionable number in this day and age, and I'll leave it there.

Edited by top-shelf-1
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Ignore the fact that this article is filed under "Capitals."  It is all about the league.  This article discusses the 20-21 season possibilities.  Bill Daly has some thoughts.

 

Summary:

- Dec 1 restart is still the plan, but seems very unlikely

- An 82 game season is highly desired, but...

- The NHL does not, actually CANNOT, run into the Olympics, which are scheduled to start July 23.  This is due to NBC TV.

- The bubble is extremely taxing and therefore it is highly unlikely to have any sort of bubble for the main season

- There was no discussion of the cross-border quarantine issues, which we rightly think could be an issue.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/capitals/hockey-moves-forward-2020-21-season-setting-dates-nhl-draft-free-agency

 

Quote

The tentative plan for the NHL was to finish out the 2020 postseason, then begin play of the 2020-21 season on Dec. 1. That's a pretty fast turnaround and one that increasingly appears unrealistic, even to Daly.

"If I had to handicap it today, it's probably less likely than more that we would start on Dec. 1, but that's not set in stone by any means," Daly said.

...

Daly said,  " There's no doubt what will end up being two-plus months in a secure zone with no interaction with the outside world including your family members is very taxing."

He added, "That does not present a model for a full regular season by any stretch. That's why I said before, I think what we're facing with respect to how we construct next season and what it looks like is a totally different challenge than what we constructed for the completion of the 19-20 season and it's going to look a lot different."

 

Edited by wxray1

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The Commish announced at the draft that the new target start date for the 2020-2021 season is January 1st, so I guess it will be just a 2021 season.  The press release said they’re still shooting for a ‘full regular season’ but I’m not sure that’s logistically possible to have and still award the Cup before the Summer Olympics start, which seems a fixed season end point due to NBC broadcasting obligations.

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Progress is going to have to happen with this graph.  Right now, it isn't happening.

And then you have Canada which has stricter lockdowns.

And then you have NY, with ... well, I'll leave my opinion out, but they are currently strict.

 

The league has a mess on their hands with regard to inviting fans into the arena.  Looking at trends, it is very hard to imagine a massive turn around in 10 weeks.

covidoct13.JPG

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It's going to take an effective vaccine. My understanding is that at least one is going to be approved soon. One of my partners was in the trial and was told it's about to be approved. Of course they're going to have to roll it out, people are going to have to take it. It will first be offered to the most vulnerable, who are not the most likely to spread it, and health care workers. But to affect the spread of the virus, it has to get into widespread use. On the plus side the government ordered early production of the vaccine well ahead of it's approval, so there should be a lot of doses ready to go. 

 

If it is approved say at the end of this month, it then all depends on how quickly it can get into widespread usage, and if enough people will take it. 

 

I had heard that there are contingencies for fans to start Feb 1. That could be doable if the vaccines are safe and effective and widely used. December would require massive vaccinations. I really don't know how doable that is. Probably not impossible, if approved by the end of this month, but not a great bet probably.

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22 minutes ago, remkin said:

As mentioned in the other thread, IMO, it's all about the vaccine now.

For the fans.  They'll probably start with the players if they see progress with possible fan attendance, even if that's an increasing scale as time moves on.

 

You still have the USA-Canada issue.  Should be interesting!

Edited by wxray1

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13 minutes ago, wxray1 said:

For the fans.  They'll probably start with the players if they see progress with possible fan attendance, even if that's an increasing scale as time moves on.

 

You still have the USA-Canada issue.  Should be interesting!

Yeah, for fans in attendance I mean. Though there are football fans now in some locations. The PNC is huge with lots of ventilation. They could start with a very scaled down attendance. That would be interesting in a couple of ways. First, who gets in? Second, how much does that really help the bottom line? 

 

One good reason to get the vaccine would be to feel more comfortable attending things, traveling, etc. 

 

Another thought I've had and not seen speculated on...getting more than one vaccine. They work differently. Getting say the two most effective ones that work differently would seem to provide better protection. Anways, just speculation.

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13 minutes ago, remkin said:

Another thought I've had and not seen speculated on...getting more than one vaccine. They work differently. Getting say the two most effective ones that work differently would seem to provide better protection. Anways, just speculation.

 

One reason we are unlikely to attend until next fall is this.  Even with a vaccine, it will be partially effective (from what we hear).  We need enough of the population to get the partially effective vaccines to finally crush the transmission chain.  That won't happen overnight.  And even if two different doses are recommended, it won't happen soon.  And even if you tried to get it, they will block you, I'm pretty sure, until everyone gets a chance.

 

And as much as I love my fans, I find crowds like this to have complete disrespect of others.  Shoving, pushing, getting in the way, yelling, etc.  Mask or not, doesn't matter.  People will be going if they feel sick.  They won't care.  They paid good money.  And I know this because 20 years ago I was that guy.  Came down with the flu and toughed it out to go to the Panthers game.  The one guy next to me kept wanting to high five me.  I'm like, "OK."  I wonder how his case of the flu was that year.  :)

Edited by wxray1

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