Playoff picture discussion thread (standings on first page)

[donkey75]

You mean like your post #40 in this very same thread

lol

Pot, meet kettle.

[NancyNC-ch1]

Yeah, saw this. He wins the award for "Best Use of Anonymous Sources to Dig Yourself Out of a Bad Call". Two weeks before this he wrote the following:

"The Verdict: They're too soft and the schedule's too hard. The streak of postseason disappointment continues."

Oops.

I didn't realize that Allan Muir posted here under the screen name StaalFTW.

[g105]

I read in the article on the NHL site about Cam Ward being named player of the month that we need seven points to clinch a playoff spot. Seven points out of a possible ten in five games. Possible, the way the Canes are playing. I guess that total is the worst case scenario; maybe if other teams cooperate by losing specific games, the points to clinch might be less. Any math majors out there?

[iceboy]

I read in the article on the NHL site about Cam Ward being named player of the month that we need seven points to clinch a playoff spot. Seven points out of a possible ten in five games. Possible, the way the Canes are playing. I guess that total is the worst case scenario; maybe if other teams cooperate by losing specific games, the points to clinch might be less. Any math majors out there?

Actually, it's any combination of Canes wins and Panthers losses, in terms of points, that reach 7.

Also, while Sports Club Stats is an outstanding site, its really not an absolute measurement of what it takes to clinch. Mathematically, the Canes currently have 91 points and the Panthers have 87. In their remaining 5 games they can gather 10 more points. So, the maximum points they can get is 97 (87+10). That's how the magic number of 7 is derived (97 - 91 plus one as a possible tie-breaker). You can see that either more points by the Canes or losses by the Panthers reduce that number. Once it's at 0, there's no way for the Panthers to mathematically catch the Canes. That's what really matters.

[Diane-1]

I read in the article on the NHL site about Cam Ward being named player of the month that we need seven points to clinch a playoff spot. Seven points out of a possible ten in five games. Possible, the way the Canes are playing. I guess that total is the worst case scenario; maybe if other teams cooperate by losing specific games, the points to clinch might be less. Any math majors out there?

Sorry, no math major here (not by a long shot, LOL), but in the thread obxcaneadian started (Playoffs - PLAYOFFS did someone mention Playoffs[/post]), he goes into all the stats, etc. using a great website called Sports Club Stats. The site actually goes into major detail about each team's chances (percentage-wise) of making the playoffs.

[colliefan]

The Slugs last games include games against the Caps, Wings, Bruins, and Devils. Doesn't look to hopeful.

[dinz]

im not worried about slugs, they are done.. but in next two games like to get 3 out of possible 4 points

[Diane-1]

I just realized that if you're looking for numbers, there's the Magic Numbers thread here as well (it goes right over my head, I'm such a math wiz, LOL.) Here ya go: Magic Numbers (what it takes to clinch)

(It was iceboy, from a few posts above me, who started the Magic Numbers thread - he sure sounds like he knows what he's talking about!)

[Guest]

Just saw the scores from tonight. With Philly losing (thanks Leafs) we have

a real shot at 4th place. But first we need to beat the Rangers and Pens.

If we can it will go a long way in securing our playoff spot. If not we are

going to be scoreboard watching and heading into the last week of season

needing every point. Nail biting time again!

[Guest]

Just saw the scores from tonight. With Philly losing (thanks Leafs) we have

a real shot at 4th place. But first we need to beat the Rangers and Pens.

If we can it will go a long way in securing our playoff spot. If not we are

going to be scoreboard watching and heading into the last week of season

needing every point. Nail biting time again!

[coastal_caniac]

Let's not be fooled into thinking that all the hype the Cane are receiving now guarntee a playoff seed. Please, just look at the standings and realize the tenous position we find ourselves in. Yes, it appears we are in good shape. But, finishing starts tommorow with the Rangers. A loss tommorrow, and Saturday against Pittsburgh has us fighting for our playoff lives again. The fat lady will be in the house tommorrow, as I hope will be another 18,000 Caniacs screaming OUR (I'll be there) "edits" off. Go Canes.

[dogbutler]

Let's not be fooled into thinking that all the hype the Cane are receiving now guarntee a playoff seed. Please, just look at the standings and realize the tenous position we find ourselves in. Yes, it appears we are in good shape. But, finishing starts tommorow with the Rangers. A loss tommorrow, and Saturday against Pittsburgh has us fighting for our playoff lives again. The fat lady will be in the house tommorrow, as I hope will be another 18,000 Caniacs screaming OUR (I'll be there) "edits" off. Go Canes.

I've screamed my "edit" off so many times, it's held on with duct tape. And I'll do it agian tomorrow and Saturday.

[Category5]

A win tonight pole vaults us in to 4th (although the Flyers will trail us by one with two games in hand), but a loss ties us in 6th with the NYR (although we would win the tie breaker). Both teams have a lot to play for tonight, hopefully our crowd can give our guys some extra energy (plus the pride of a GREAT home win streak).

With another Staal in the house, maybe our Staal will have a great game.

Go CANES.

[mike_leclair_88]

Slugs lose to thrashers in OT

If they can't beat the thrashers, there gonna have trouble down the stretch having all of there last games against playoff opponents except for 1 game

Canes have a huge against rangers

both teams have played equal amount of games (77 games) only to be separated by 2 pts. A win in regulation by the canes will give them a 4 pt edge on rangers, which will help solidifyin at least the 6th spot in east.

[kingofminneapolis]

We would already be in 4th place, if we hadn't lost the game in Philly where they scored 4 third period goals to tie and win it in a shootout. <_<

[dinz]

if its and buts were candy and nuts... everyday would be x-mas.. cant worry about that one, lets just win tonight

[remkin]

AND DOWWWWWWN THE STRETCH THE GO!!!!

While we would all be sitting on the side of the road stunned and dazed if we somehow fall out of this thing, I have to admit it is making these games intense. This team is just playing too well not to make it. Two wins should clinch it. Win one tonight!

[obxcaneadian]

We would already be in 4th place, if we hadn't lost the game in Philly where they scored 4 third period goals to tie and win it in a shootout. <_<

Out of 6 defencemen that day only 4 were our regular starters

or lose to Vancuver in the last couple of minutes, they were on a six game losing streak I believe, then after that win over us went on a 10 game home winning streak, if i am wrong someone can correct me.

[Canes06cup17]

Just keep winning and we won't have to strain our brains with the math

[Bing_Chow]

I can't believe I'm scoreboard watching Philly because getting home ice ad for 1st round is actually possible. Three weeks ago i didn't care what the Flyers did.

[super_dave_1]

Out of 6 defencemen that day only 4 were our regular starters

or lose to Vancuver in the last couple of minutes, they were on a six game losing streak I believe, then after that win over us went on a 10 game home winning streak, if i am wrong someone can correct me.

I think that was actually only 2 regular starters.

[hopper915]

Here is a breakdown of what teams around the Canes have left and possible total points if they were to win all of their remaining games. I've also listed who they play that are still in the running for playoff spots.

Washington - 5 Games left= Total possible points 111 (IF they were to lose their remaining games and Canes win their remaining games, it is still possible to win the SE Div. Both teams would be tied with 101 point and series is tied at 3-3)

New Jersey - 5 Games left= Total possible points 108 (They play Canes and Sabres once in the stretch)

Carolina - 4 Games left= Total possible points 101 (They play Pens, Devils and Sabres once in the stretch)

Philadelphia - 6 Games left= Total possible points 104 (They play Rangers twice and Panthers once in the stretch)

Pittsburgh - 5 Games left= Total possible points 102 (They play Canes, Habs and Panthers once in the stretch)

Montreal - 5 Games left= Total possible points 100 (They play Rangers, Pens, and Bruins once in the stretch)

New York - 4 Games left= Total possible points 97 (They play Bruins and Habs once and Flyer twice in the stretch)

Florida - 5 Games left= Total possible points 97 (They play Penguins and Flyers once in the stretch)

Buffalo - 6 Games left= Total possible points 95 (They play Caps, Canes, Bruins and Devils once in the stretch)

[ericncsu]

Here is a breakdown of what teams around the Canes have left and possible total points if they were to win all of their remaining games. I've also listed who they play that are still in the running for playoff spots.

Washington - 5 Games left= Total possible points 111 (IF they were to lose their remaining games and Canes win their remaining games, it is still possible to win the SE Div. Both teams would be tied with 101 point and series is tied at 3-3)

New Jersey - 5 Games left= Total possible points 108 (They play Canes and Sabres once in the stretch)

Carolina - 4 Games left= Total possible points 101 (They play Pens, Devils and Sabres once in the stretch)

Philadelphia - 6 Games left= Total possible points 104 (They play Rangers twice and Panthers once in the stretch)

Pittsburgh - 5 Games left= Total possible points 102 (They play Canes, Habs and Panthers once in the stretch)

Montreal - 5 Games left= Total possible points 100 (They play Rangers, Pens, and Bruins once in the stretch)

New York - 4 Games left= Total possible points 97 (They play Bruins and Habs once and Flyer twice in the stretch)

Florida - 5 Games left= Total possible points 97 (They play Penguins and Flyers once in the stretch)

Buffalo - 6 Games left= Total possible points 95 (They play Caps, Canes, Bruins and Devils once in the stretch)

Thanks for the breakdown. It looks like from this, unless NJ loses most of their remaining games, they will stay 3rd even though they've struggled. If we beat Pittsburgh tommorrow that will certainly help NJ.

Washington's remaining schedule is a gift from the gods.. Buffalo, Atlanta, @Atlanta, @Tampa Bay, @Florida. Since they only have to win one of those to shut us out of the Div Lead, I would expect them to do so. At this point I couldnt care less. A top 3 seed and home ice would be great, but we have a chance at 4th and home ice and we have wins lately against many of the teams we could face in the playoffs (Philly, Rangers, DevilsX2, Washington 2 of last 3). Right now teams are fearing facing us, it doesnt matter if we are 8th going up against #1 Boston, or if we are 4th facing either Pitt or Philly in the 5 hole we have a chance to win no matter what. Given our franchise record 10 game home winning streak, I would love to nab the 4th seed and home ice. If we win all 4 games (which included beating Pitt tommorrow) we will finish higher then pitt no matter what, so we will only need Philly to tank some.

Assuming Carolina beats the Isles and Sabres, that puts us at 97 points. Take away a win from the Sabres and they are at 92. That won't be good enough to make it I dont think. If Washington beats Florida on the last game of the season and knocks them down to 95 possible, I think that will keep them out as well.

[iceboy]

I love Sport Club Stats. I look at it myself every day. However, I think you need to be real careful using it as an absolute playoff determination tool. It's really just a statistical model, based on millions of runs of randomized outcomes. Here's the problem.

If you look at tonight's Big Games, it doesn't even identify the Panthers game as having any significance - zero. My guess is because statistically, the percent of runs that it made a difference in was less than .9, so it doesn't show up. I'm ok with that. However, in reality a loss by the Panthers has mathematically just as much importance as a Canes win. If you look at tomorrows game against the Pens, it shows a Canes win would put us at 100% chance of making the playoffs. It's simply can't determine that yet, since we don't know the outcome of the Panthers game.

For example, if the Panthers win tonight that would put their maximum potential points at 97. If we also win on Sat, our points after would be 95. So, mathematically, we would not have clinched yet.

My only point is that Sport Club Stats is very useful for looking at the big picture, but when it comes down to absolute determination, I think it has some issues. I know. I know. Win and we're in. Forgive my mathematical ramblings.

[medfordcaniac7]

I love http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html' target="_blank">Sport Club Stats[/post]. I look at it myself every day. However, I think you need to be real careful using it as an absolute playoff determination tool. It's really just a statistical model, based on millions of runs of randomized outcomes. Here's the problem.

If you look at tonight's Big Games, it doesn't even identify the Panthers game as having any significance - zero. My guess is because statistically, the percent of runs that it made a difference in was less than .9, so it doesn't show up. I'm ok with that. However, in reality a loss by the Panthers has mathematically just as much importance as a Canes win. If you look at tomorrows game against the Pens, it shows a Canes win would put us at 100% chance of making the playoffs. It's simply can't determine that yet, since we don't know the outcome of the Panthers game.

For example, if the Panthers win tonight that would put their maximum potential points at 97. If we also win on Sat, our points after would be 95. So, mathematically, we would not have clinched yet.

My only point is that Sport Club Stats is very useful for looking at the big picture, but when it comes down to absolute determination, I think it has some issues. I know. I know. Win and we're in. Forgive my mathematical ramblings.

Its simple Fla loses tonight and we win tomorrow and its over.

I hope for that scenario.