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gocanes88

Playoff picture discussion thread (standings on first page)

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this is it - finally 10 games. We have 78 points in 70 games. I think we need over 92-95 points for playoffs. That means in last 12 games, we need at least 14 points.

Easier said than done. But here's a "simple" solution - win every remaining home game. That's 16 points for a grand total of 94 which should be enough for the playoffs. Like I said, easier said than done, but not impossible.

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according to the statistics of it, we need 99pts to be in 100%... :mellow:

only 10 games left..in season I...where did the time go!?!? :blink:

Easier said than done. But here's a "simple" solution - win every remaining home game. That's 16 points for a grand total of 94 which should be enough for the playoffs. Like I said, easier said than done, but not impossible.

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Games in hand tends to complicate matters; the Canes have 78 points and have 12 games remaining

Sabres have two games in hand and 75 points

Kitty-kats have two games in hand and 77 points

Rags have two games in hand and have 78 points

Pens have one game in hand and have 79 points

Habs have two games in hand and have 80 points

This means the remaining home games againt the Slugs, Rags, and Pens are must win in regulation games. When these teams play each other, we need to pull for the team with the higher number of points to win in regulation. And for the remaining 9 games, the Canes must secure at least a point. They probably aren't going to catch the Habs, so the battle comes down to the Slugs, Kitty-kats, Pens and Rags.

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Anybody know why year after year we have always played more games than anyone else right about now?

The good teams get about 1.2-1.3 points per game, but for simpliciy if we assign one point per game in hand, to each team with games in hand on us (which is every dang team), then the adjusted standings would be:

1. Boston 98

2. NJD 94

3. Wash 91

4. Philly 86

5. Montreal 82

6. Pitts 80

7. NYR 80

8. Florida 79

9. CANES 78

10.Slugs 77

Since teams in contention tend to win more than half their games it is probably worse than this list.

BUT on the positive. The idea that the Canes have to go 12-0 is nuts. Yes, if we go 12-0 we're in, but according to everyone's favorite stats site, if the Canes go 7-5 over the remainder of the season we have a 73.5% chance of making the playoffs. This is 92 points. 91 points gives us a coin flip. Now, that said teams in the hunt tend to beat teams not in the hunt, which is the weakness of this site which assumes a 50% chance of each team winnining every game.

For that reason, I would say that 8-4 will almost certainly do it. Now this team is playing very well, so 8-4 is far from a stretch.

So, 8-4 likely? It will be very difficult because, while we are playing 9/12 at home, we are also playing 9/12 vs good to very good teams. Washington and NJD twice each, FLA, NYR, Pittsburgh, Buffalo. Our second game vs. Washington is back to back for us and rested for them.

We can do it, but it is not going to be easy. Supposidly 6-5-1 gives us a coin flip to get in.

I really like the way this team is playing, but the odds are givining me deja vu all over again.

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I really like the way this team is playing, but the odds are givining me deja vu all over again.

This year, our last game of the season is at NJ. The penultimate game is the one that could be like last year, except that home game against the Slugs could be winner goes to the playoffs and loser goes to the golf course. Talk about an intense game.

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This year, our last game of the season is at NJ. The penultimate game is the one that could be like last year, except that home game against the Slugs could be winner goes to the playoffs and loser goes to the golf course. Talk about an intense game.

Imagine all the liquored up Slugs fans in Raleigh for that one. We need to buy up the tickets now!

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Even with the other teams having a game or two in hand we still have a decent chance to make the playoffs.

The other teams in the east have some tough games coming up next week and really for the remainder of the

season. A lot of hockey left but time is running out. I think by next weekend we might have a better idea what it

will take to get in. Of course we need to keep winning.

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Even with the other teams having a game or two in hand we still have a decent chance to make the playoffs.

The other teams in the east have some tough games coming up next week and really for the remainder of the

season. A lot of hockey left but time is running out. I think by next weekend we might have a better idea what it

will take to get in. Of course we need to keep winning.

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Agree... but lets take into consideration the other team's remaining schedules (NY, Pitt, Buff, Fla).

The Rangers have a brutal schedule. 7h (PHI, BUF, OTT, MIN, MON, PHI), 7a (PHI, MON, ATL, PIT, CAR, BOS, PHI). That's a tough schedule. They have Philly 4 times, and other than Atlanta (who has been playing well lately) the rest are no cupcakes either.

Pittsburgh's is a little less daunting, as they play 10h, 4a, including an 8-game home stand that starts tomorrow. H (OTT, BOS, ATL, LA, PHI, CAL, NYR, NJ, NYI) A (CAR, FLA, TAM, BOS)

Buffalo also plays 7h (ATL, PHI, FLA, TOR, NJ, DET, BOS), and 7a (OTT, NYR, MON, ATL, WAS, TOR, CAR). The game against us is the 2nd night of back to back games - they play in Toronto the night before. And they play 5 games in 7 days in April...

The Panthers play 9h (TAM, WAS, TOR, COLUM, CAR, OTT, PIT, ATL), 5a (BUF, PHI, DAL, PHI, ATL). They also start a 5-game home stand tomorrow night. Then they play 3 games in 4 nights on the road at Buf, at Phi, at Dal... not easy.

So in looking at the remaining schedules.... who really has an edge? I'd say Pittsburgh based on schedule alone.... but 8 games in a row at home is a long stretch. Only time will tell!

Plus... we play each of these teams one more time, and the best part is all 4 are on RBC Ice.

one point [/u]per game in hand, to each team with games in hand on us (which is every dang team), then the adjusted standings would be:

1. Boston 98

2. NJD 94

3. Wash 91

4. Philly 86

5. Montreal 82

6. Pitts 80

7. NYR 80

8. Florida 79

9. CANES 78

10.Slugs 77

Since teams in contention tend to win more than half their games it is probably worse than this list.

BUT on the positive. The idea that the Canes have to go 12-0 is nuts. Yes, if we go 12-0 we're in, but according to everyone's favorite stats site, if the Canes go 7-5 over the remainder of the season we have a 73.5% chance of making the playoffs. This is 92 points. 91 points gives us a coin flip. Now, that said teams in the hunt tend to beat teams not in the hunt, which is the weakness of this site which assumes a 50% chance of each team winnining every game.

For that reason, I would say that 8-4 will almost certainly do it. Now this team is playing very well, so 8-4 is far from a stretch.

So, 8-4 likely? It will be very difficult because, while we are playing 9/12 at home, we are also playing 9/12 vs good to very good teams. Washington and NJD twice each, FLA, NYR, Pittsburgh, Buffalo. Our second game vs. Washington is back to back for us and rested for them.

We can do it, but it is not going to be easy. Supposidly 6-5-1 gives us a coin flip to get in.

I really like the way this team is playing, but the odds are givining me deja vu all over again.

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I agree with Remkin, 8-4 is the goal for us right now. From here on out, we have 24 potential points, if we capture 16 in anyway, I think we'll be alright. It is definitely possible, maybe not realistic because of how inconsistent we are, but I will lay out my path to the playoffs.

To finish the month we have 7 of our 12 games. 2 against Washington and New Jersey. My hope is we can manage going .500 and pick up 4 of the 8 possible points. We also play the Islanders and Senators, games we should and need to win, giving us 8 of 12 with a 4-2 record. We also have a game against the Panthers that we also need to win, and avoid going into OT. If we can do this, we would end up with 10 of 14 points and a 5-2 record, which would be a HUGE accomplishment going into April.

In april we have 5 games left, the easiest against the Islanders which we will need to win. We also have the Rangers, Penguins and Sabres again. If we can win 2 of those, that gives us 8 wins and allows us to not have to worry about beating New Jersey our last game.

I know I didn't go in order, but I grouped our opponents together with how they are in the standings.

Bottom line, 8-4 and don't go to OT vs. Rangers, Panthers, Penguins, or Sabres.

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16 points would be the ideal number. 94 points would be the goal, since I believe there's only been 1 team in recent history that missed the playoffs with more than 94 points (Colorado in 06-07), and that was only because the West was so dominant that year.

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I think it can be done if we get back to play the way we did on that 4 game winning streak. I also think our schedule is some what in our advantage compared to other teams 9 of our last 12 games are at home and the canes have been playing stellar at home (knock on wood :D)

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In april we have 5 games left, the easiest against the Islanders which we will need to win. We also have the Rangers, Penguins and Sabres again. If we can win 2 of those, that gives us 8 wins and allows us to not have to worry about beating New Jersey our last game.

I know I didn't go in order, but I grouped our opponents together with how they are in the standings.

Bottom line, 8-4 and don't go to OT vs. Rangers, Panthers, Penguins, or Sabres.

Yea, that April schedule is tricky...majority of games against those that we're fighting with. I know it may be a false hope, but I just want us to NOT have to be fighting for a playoff spot come the last 2-3 games of the regular season...we need to have it already secured. Just don't want those last few games to be major stressers.

Happy Birthday btw. B)

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Last night was disappointing to say the least. Now we have to go to Crapitalville. I hope we take care of business. We have more at stake so hopefully we will play more desperate.

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We have more at stake so hopefully we will play more desperate.

All the Caps have to play for is a higher seed, the Canes need to play for their playoff lives. Realistically. more than four regulation losses in the last 12 games and their playoff hopes are toast.

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Our only hope for help tonight will be Philly beating the Rangers. Pittsburgh should beat Ottawa, Florida should beat Tampa Bay and Buffalo will probably beat Atlanta, but Atlanta has won a few big ones lately and Buffalo is struggling so maybe they will pull one off.

Win or lose the lowest we can drop is 9th, but thats out of the playoffs so we dont want to drop there. Need our third straight win against Washington tonight.

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We must take care of our own business. We have the Caps 2x, NJ 3x, and the rest battling with us or below; 8-4 is reasonable.

Looking at the others' schedules:

Pitts has 2 more back-backs, 1 starting tonight (Boston tomorrow); pretty easy except NJ, Phi& Calg, and us. Habs on 4/11 may be big.

Habs: Fairly tough- NJ, Rangers 2x, Tor 2x, Chi,1 back-back in April (Rangers on back end), end w/ Bos & Pit

Rangers- Back-back w/ Phi starting today, Phi 2more x, Habs 2x, Bos, NJ, us

Sabres (toast!)- 4 more back-backs (#3 Wash-NJ, followed by Det......#4 us on the back end), Phi, Tor 2x, end w/ Boston

I feel confident (more so than last year)

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We must take care of our own business. We have the Caps 2x, NJ 3x, and the rest battling with us or below; 8-4 is reasonable.

Looking at the others' schedules:

Pitts has 2 more back-backs, 1 starting tonight (Boston tomorrow); pretty easy except NJ, Phi& Calg, and us. Habs on 4/11 may be big.

Habs: Fairly tough- NJ, Rangers 2x, Tor 2x, Chi,1 back-back in April (Rangers on back end), end w/ Bos & Pit

Rangers- Back-back w/ Phi starting today, Phi 2more x, Habs 2x, Bos, NJ, us

Sabres (toast!)- 4 more back-backs (#3 Wash-NJ, followed by Det......#4 us on the back end), Phi, Tor 2x, end w/ Boston

I feel confident (more so than last year)

I did too last year going into the last game against Florida.

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Our only hope for help tonight will be Philly beating the Rangers. Pittsburgh should beat Ottawa, Florida should beat Tampa Bay and Buffalo will probably beat Atlanta, but Atlanta has won a few big ones lately and Buffalo is struggling so maybe they will pull one off.

Win or lose the lowest we can drop is 9th, but thats out of the playoffs so we dont want to drop there. Need our third straight win against Washington tonight.

Okay, I'm confused (once again.) Last time I checked, Florida was one point behind us (with two games in hand). I would think that should be our main concern tonight (aside from winning our own game, of course, LOL). If Florida does beat TB (and we don't win our own game), we're back in 9th place.

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Okay, I'm confused (once again.) Last time I checked, Florida was one point behind us (with two games in hand). I would think that should be our main concern tonight (aside from winning our own game, of course, LOL). If Florida does beat TB (and we don't win our own game), we're back in 9th place.

Yes, we want florida to lose... but if we win, they stay 1 point behind us, so winning our game is of course a key. I was saying of the games that are going tonight, the only 1 i think would help us would be Philly beating NYR since the other teams (Pitt, Florida, Buffalo) are all playing teams lower in the standings while NYR are playing Philly who is higher, meaning I expect Pitt, Florida and Buffalo to all win.

Currently NYR have a 1-0 lead over Philly, so even thats not going our way.

If we win (move to 80 points) and Pitt loses we jump them. If we win and Florida wins or loses, we stay ahead of Florida. If we win and Rangers lose we move ahead of them into 7th. If we lose, all bets are off and we slide to 9th if Florida wins.

Also, since Buffalo is 3 points behind us, even if they win they can't leap frog us, so a loss will only drop us to 9th and no further. If Florida loses, we stay in 8th.

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